Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Do you plan on having them in your personal spreadsheet, assuming you have one to keep up your actual account?
If so, Boghie, how will you program them in?

Grandma,

Tom's AccountTracker supports more than two IFTs per month. See Amoeba's movements last month - he made about a thousand of them

I don't know if Tom likes tons of moves; I haven't seen his database structure or code. However, the AutoTracker moves much better than before.

Finally, Tom has provided a very good spreadsheet. It is available under the 'Tools and Utilities' section on the front page. Here is a link. The tools provided are very good. In addition NASA provided me a very extensible spreadsheet. Still playing.

 

[Boghie]

So Much Hope…

Re(1): 'Deep cuts likely in updated state budget', San Francisco Chronical, Wyatt Buchanan

There is so much Hope in Kalefornea

1. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger didn't see the federal funds he hoped for.
   
2. Unexpected gains in state revenues that leaders hoped would significantly cut the deficit evaporated in the last few weeks.
   
3. Some people, including state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, had hoped that gains in revenues from the first few months of the year would push the deficit for the 2010-11 fiscal year below $10 billion.
   
4. State leaders also hoped for billions in aid from the federal government. The governor had included $6.9 billion in federal dollars in his January budget plan, but so far the state has received just under $3 billion

The Reality:

1. The governor had included $6.9 billion in federal dollars in his January budget plan, but so far the state has received just under $3 billion
   
2. That means the state's budget deficit, which started the year at $20 billion and dipped to about $18.6 billion after some midyear actions by the Legislature, could exceed the original estimate.
   
3. State financial analysts are pointing to a significant carryover of losses from 2008 to 2009 that brought down revenues from capital gains and weakness in small business income to explain the shortfall.
   
4. The governor had included $6.9 billion in federal dollars in his January budget plan, but so far the state has received just under $3 billion

And, the best quote of all:

Both Democratic and Republican leaders in the Legislature have said they do not intend to seek higher taxes this year to bridge the gap.​

The Hope: Next year the victorious Democrats will demonstrate their mandate by doubling income taxes, sales taxes, and usage fees!!!

There's Change we can all believe in!!!

Sí se puede

 

[Silverbird]

Since California needs a super majority to pass tax increases, expect lots of screaming and yelling and good luck on any needed infrastructure fixes as NorCal and SoCal fight one another both over party lines and projects. I suspect they never really recovered from the Enron fun (two referendums, one guaranteeing a ceiling on energy prices for consumers + another calling for open competition in energy = Enron buys out everyone else's California biz and riffs state of California with insane prices the consumer never saw).

 

[Boghie]

Sneaking Around...

I just realized how sneaky I have been...

For folks sleuthing the AutoTraker I look one one of those 100% in the market types.

So sneaky - that 90% holding in the L2010 Fund.

One weird thing is that '<1%' moved to the C/S will actually reduce my holdings in those funds because of the fractionals. That idea of using the L2010 as my rotation/floatation device doesn't seem to be working...

 

[grandma]

Re: Sneaking Around...

One weird thing is that '<1%' moved to the C/S will actually reduce my holdings in those funds because of the fractionals. That idea of using the L2010 as my rotation/floatation device doesn't seem to be working...

So if you add <1% : C 3.8 to 4 and/or S 2.5 to 3 it reduces the C & S fractions of your 2010 by that same amt? Or the whole by .7?
What happens to the other L's you have 1% in?

Does it reduce below what was there originally?
It sure sounded like a great game plan !

But, in other words, you won't have more than what you would have had by staying put? :notrust:

-coming & going, I tell ya, that's how they've got us! Get out of G, they say, then they fix it so you ......
- shush, grandma!!!! :laugh:

add: FuturesTrader uses the L's on occasion, I wonder how he addressed that, or if he felt it made that much difference...

 

[Boghie]

This IFT was logged successfully into the AutoTracker, but did not post in the MB...

Thus:

L2010 - 88%
L2020 - 1%
L2030 - 1%
L2040 - 1%

G - 0%
F - 1%
C - 4%
S - 3%
I - 1%​

A small move for more Beta...

Trying to grab that falling knife. Can't hurt too much since I was only able to safely IFT for a raging 2%. Oh, well...

LateR

 

[amoeba]

Per my expectation:

The carnage continues. Nothing more than the January low in the S&P (~1060) is worth even considering touching with a significant amount of reinvestment. I wish I was wrong about this, unfortunately, this time - it is so obvious that everyone knows it, and anyone who says otherwise is in denial. Don't take my 1,060 to the bank. It could be lower. That's the highest, possible, near-term bottom I'm predicting.

That said, I'm not going to sully anyone who pitches <1% IFT pennies in the fountain hoping for good luck; because that's the reason I left a pittance (2% each) in the CSI funds, so I can do the same thing. Sort of like betting on lame horses hoping that the leaders die. A sympathy thing. Oh,,,,the poor S fund,,,,,here's a few %

 

[Boghie]

Is it now safe to say...

Is it now safe to say that the high point of the 'Obama Economic Miracle' is:

S&P 500 - 1,220​

Or, will tax increases, higher regulation, massive budget deficits, and the general anti-business activities of the Obama Administration bring prosperity you can believe in.

And, our brave Congress doesn't seem too intent on actually passing a budget - with very negative consequences for those of us not in the Top 1%:toung:. Without structural reform (which requires an actual vote, not some stupid reconciliation) we will all get the Marriage Penalty. Sunsets are very beautiful!!!

Joy to the world.

 

[Silverbird]

It's not a tax increase, the silly things were designed to expire to play with future math.
And I see more anti-Finance than anti-business - yes I know doubling exports may appear to some to be overly ambitious math but at least that means we need business to manufacture and provide services here to export..

As for oil drilling, BP's timing was just about the worst it could be. Most of the Democratic party (except those here in Virginia, and a couple other exceptions) wouldn't even have introduced the idea of offshore drilling. Good luck getting it passed right now - not going to happen until at least the leak is plugged. Don't get me started on including federal park land for drilling auctions, that was just a great way to look like you are giving away scenic places to cushy friends in big business to mess up with oil rigs and dirt roads. That's not what that land was put aside for, if it wasn't worth being parkland, that's a completely different issue.

 

[Boghie]

SilverBird,

The last defict Bush had a full hand in came through at $160 Billion.
Every deficit Obama has had a hand in will exceed $1,000 Billion.
Obama's FY2010 has no business being $1,400 out of balance.

Part of the problem for Obama is folks and companies are adjusting to his reality. Companies will show less profit - even if they are able to make the same profit. Why? Because neither they nor we will want dividends after the tax treatment changes. Thus, they will move the money around. Therefore, a smaller tax base. Those changes are happening now - the market looks six to nine months ahead. Great, just great.

For example, Kalefornea increased its income tax and sales tax. My adjustment - I increased my TSP contributions to zero out the tax increase. There are lots of folks like me. And, I still have room.

 

[Boghie]

To All of us at TSPTalk...

You know when you are in a crappy market when...

Your '<1%' IFT doesn't change your AutoTracker allocation
but, it changes yours ​

Yowser

 

[Boghie]

Back from vacation. Noted that New Mexico and Texas didn't look like the 'Crappy State of California'. The end of the world hasn't reached states that are not governed by goobers.

The 'Obama Economic Miracle' has given me the opportunity to buy more equity funds to match what I had already owned. What a sale

Thus:

L2010 - 87%
L2020 - 1%
L2030 - 1%
L2040 - 1%

G - 0%
F - 2%
C - 4%
S - 3%
I - 1%​

Another small move for more Beta...

Trying to grab that falling knife.

I get to buy equities on 'sale' and grab another point in the 'F Fund'. The beta will be a tad better for the rebound off the trading range as well.

LateR

 

[Boghie]

Kalefornea just cannot cut expenses. Here we go again.

Looks like I'm going to have to jigger my TSP contributions to zero out another tax increase. Their last tax increase resulted in a rather dramatic revenue fall. Totally unexpected. How does that happen?

Dear Kaleforea Libs, I have a computer.

I can zero you out.

LateR

 

[Boghie]

The nice bump yesterday pushed all my equities heavy holdings up fractionally. That means I can enact a '<1%' IFT on all of them.

Thus:

L2010 - 81%
L2020 - 2%
L2030 - 2%
L2040 - 2%

G - 0%
F - 2%
C - 5%
S - 4%
I - 1%​

Another small move for more Beta...

Bumped my Quicken Reward/Risk from 3/3 to 4/4. I thinki this is a reasonable allocation for risky times - when not in free fall. Very conservative, but poised to grow at least a bit while not killing me quickly on a flop and fall.

Might hold this a bit through early June. Might not be much, but with so many folks on the Lilly Pond - and a potential for being at the bottom of a trading range - I might get some action so I don't have to page down so much on the AutoTracker:nuts:

 

[coolhand]

I might get some action so I don't have to page down so much on the AutoTracker:nuts:

:laugh:

That's the main reason I want to be at the top of the list.

 

[sdouglas3]

I did a 1%er on C,S,I today as well. What an awesome way to buy this market. Buying this thing way off the highs and and not to much at one time.

Steve

 

[Boghie]

Time to Get Back In...

Oh, I don't have a clue why I am doing this.

Summer investing is usually for the dogs.

But, I am bored with sitting around.

Bored, bored, bored - yuk.

G: 0% - Alpo doesn't taste as good as it used to
F: 0% - Already too close to recent highs
C: 70% - Little overweighted against US Market
S: 30% - I'll blame Birch if the S rages
I: 0% - The Greeks are taking over the Euro!!!

I would like to take an Oscar moment (about 2 hours or so) and thank the L2010 for saving me on the downturn and giving me some upside. Kinda wish there wasn't such a difference between the L2010 and the L2020.

 

[dannyboy]

:laugh:

That's the main reason I want to be at the top of the list.

***
I can relate!!! :cheesy:

 

[Boghie]

Re: Time to Get Back In...

Oh, I don't have a clue why I am doing this.

Summer investing is usually for the dogs.

But, I am bored with sitting around.

Bored, bored, bored - yuk.

G: 0% - Alpo doesn't taste as good as it used to
F: 0% - Already too close to recent highs
C: 70% - Little overweighted against US Market
S: 30% - I'll blame Birch if the S rages
I: 0% - The Greeks are taking over the Euro!!!

I would like to take an Oscar moment (about 2 hours or so) and thank the L2010 for saving me on the downturn and giving me some upside. Kinda wish there wasn't such a difference between the L2010 and the L2020.

Just a reminder, my market timing website 'Timing the Market for Fools and Goobers' is a available for the low low price of $Thousands/day. Kinda hard to price, but I've got to cover my losses somehow

Actually, I don't really time the thing. Don't want to be in on the falling knife, but I am normally prefer to be in equities. So, the knife looked like it was bouncing on the floor.

I guess the next couple of days (or week) will tell the tale:nuts:

 

[Bullitt]

I have a pet peeve – nobody else here seems concerned though – about the ‘G Fund’. Actually a couple....The time may come when we really need a cash equivalent in TSP, eh

Boghie. Besides paper cash hidden under the floorboards or pennies filling up a growler jug, is there one account held at a bank, institution or 3rd party that isn't lent out to the masses?

Dude, if the G Fund goes down the tubes, it's game over for the entire world.