Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

The Trend is the Friend...

Probably buying at the top...
But not too much...
Emotions :nuts:

Anyway, kinda moving to the standard allocation. But, I really don't think mid-term bonds and and MBS' are the way to go. Also, I think Europe and Japan have significantly more downside - they are already where The One wants to take us

Thus,

G: 17% -- Normally would be 2% G and 15% F.
F: 0%
C: 48%
S: 22% -- Little overbalanced here
I: 13% -- Little underbalanced here

For the rest of you, I would recommend sell, sell, sell. My soft market timing has netted me 1.75% this year. There are about 175 folks who have done better over the past two months. Go contrarian!!!

 

[JTH]

Hard spot to be in, I agree on the F-Fund, the only thing it has going for it is Europe's underperformance.

As for buying at the top, well I never try to guess a top in a bull market with rising prices. We could top out in 2 days or 2 years, nobody knows. If you feel bad about your position in the tracker, I'll be happy to trade ya

Funny thing is how angry and discusted the bloggers were this weekend, pounding their fist on the table screaming "but my indicators say this!" meanwhile they sit on the sidelines in disbelief as they miss out on gains.

Price pays...

 

[Boghie]

There is a Time for Everything...

A time for churning...

After this nice market run-up we stirred the pot a bit with a multi-trillion dollar entitlement - just as the U.S. credit rating is about to be dropped from AAA status.

Time to move some off the market:

G: 40% -- Normally would be 14% G and 26% F.
F: 0%
C: 37%
S: 12%
I: 11%

Don't like the MBS' in the 'F Fund'.

Readying another move to safety if da' Boyz initiate a 'Capital Strike'...

I think the oldsters and foreign markets will drive Federal borrowing interest rates up. Right now, the Fed borrows at a greater cost than some of our blue chip companies - a very rare occurrence.

Hope

 

[Boghie]

Staying the course...

I still have 40% out of the market. I was thinking about yanking another 5% - 10% out of equities.

But, Tsunami and BirchTree are keeping me in

If the C/S/I tank I'll simply blame them!!! It can't possibly be my fault:laugh:

 

[Tsunami]

Staying the course...

But, Tsunami and BirchTree are keeping me in

If the C/S/I tank I'll simply blame them!!! It can't possibly be my fault:laugh:

Eeeek, no, don't blame me, blame the guy I'm following that's keeping me in (Terry Laundry at ttheory.com). I think the ride is going to get rougher soon as we approach 1200, but the 1220's at a minimum by 5/20 (Laundry's date) is looking better than ever.

I had an IFT to burn this month and decided today to shift mostly into the C fund since as this rally matures the C fund is pulling in more money and starting to outperform small caps both going up and down. That also follows the seasonal pattern where the C fund does better in April. So I'm now 65C/35S, and nervous, but all in. :worried: I'm hoping for a few more people ahead of me to bail out so I can move into the top 20 by 5/20.

 

[Handballer]

Eeeek, no, don't blame me, blame the guy I'm following that's keeping me in (Terry Laundry at ttheory.com). I think the ride is going to get rougher soon as we approach 1200, but the 1220's at a minimum by 5/20 (Laundry's date) is looking better than ever.

I had an IFT to burn this month and decided today to shift mostly into the C fund since as this rally matures the C fund is pulling in more money and starting to outperform small caps both going up and down. That also follows the seasonal pattern where the C fund does better in April. So I'm now 65C/35S, and nervous, but all in. :worried: I'm hoping for a few more people ahead of me to bail out so I can move into the top 20 by 5/20.

Wish I was one of them. If I bye chance move into the top 20 by 5/20, just remind me and I will bail.

 

[Boghie]

Geez,

What a crappy pattern...

Why didn’t any of you save me

 

[JTH]

I had an IFT to burn this month and decided today to shift mostly into the C fund since as this rally matures the C fund is pulling in more money and starting to outperform small caps both going up and down. That also follows the seasonal pattern where the C fund does better in April

That's actually one of the plans I'm considering, by using my last IFT to split to my allocation. I'm not sure how this will play out though, because in April (going back to 2002 using $EMW) I'm showing the small caps have the highes "average month."

Geez,

What a crappy pattern...

Why didn’t any of you save me

Hey you're lookin pretty good from where I'm sitting. I'm somewhat surprised you have 11 on I-Fund, but hey I'm still below you on the tracker so what do I know

 

[Boghie]

JTH - Fellow GenXer,

I have assets in the 'I Fund' because I'm dumber than dirt:nuts:

Actually, its part of a conservative allocation I yanked out of Ric Edelman's 'The Lies About Money'. Edelman's portfolio (#28) would have me invest 26% in the 'F Fund'. Me thinks not. Anyway, the Quicken Expected Risk thingy for this allocation is only 7%. That stat is based on the standard deviation. So, I am in a quasi capital preservation mode.

That 11% in the 'I Fund' looks kinda scary too - but the market will probably resolve the problem for me

 

[Boghie]

I think I despise the 'G Fund'...
That thing has killed me this month...

But, it was sure nice in Ocober 2008. Every dog has its day

 

[Birchtree]

Do you have any particular sense of an unbridled panic developing next week to really increase the level of anxiety of the hold outs that will make their heads spin? It would absolutely be a perfect scenario to bring out the animal spirits. The 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1228 and 11,245 are just a heated breath away. My hoofhearted friends will stampede this market and force the hold outs to holler - get me in at any price.

 

[Boghie]

Do you have any particular sense of an unbridled panic developing next week to really increase the level of anxiety of the hold outs that will make their heads spin? It would absolutely be a perfect scenario to bring out the animal spirits. The 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1228 and 11,245 are just a heated breath away. My hoofhearted friends will stampede this market and force the hold outs to holler - get me in at any price.

Birch, you know as well as I that the bulls are running through the streets.

The slow and week will be gored in the streets of Pamplona.

Most don't even know the run is on.


And, what did I do? Yup, my political brain stunted my fiscal sense to the tune of a 40% weight - otherwise known as the 'G Fund' boat anchor. I have been slowed.

But I ain't weak.

Thinking about hurling these shackles and earning some shekels:cheesy:

 

[Boghie]

Howdy folks,

I decided it was time to loose some of that weight. Running the treadmill, lifting the weights, getting some cardio, and trying on a pair of new sticky pants.

G: 17%
F: 0%
C: 48%
S: 20%
I: 15%

This is a normal - that is, AVERAGE - allocation. Not conservative, not aggressive - just right.

The market looks like it is going to boom. My guess is that this is dumb money rolling in and the smart money will take some earnings. But, there is a lot of dumb money out there - some of it managed by professionals

So, today the market will boom then give most of it back. Then we will start getting a little bit of daily growth for a while.

Till we find the 'Obama Economic Miracle' discount. :nuts:

Guessing at -20% from the highs. Only a guess.

That gives me about 80 - 100 points.

Got to be in to win

 

[coolhand]

Howdy folks,

I decided it was time to loose some of that weight. Running the treadmill, lifting the weights, getting some cardio, and trying on a pair of new sticky pants.

G: 17%
F: 0%
C: 48%
S: 20%
I: 15%

This is a normal - that is, AVERAGE - allocation. Not conservative, not aggressive - just right.

The market looks like it is going to boom. My guess is that this is dumb money rolling in and the smart money will take some earnings. But, there is a lot of dumb money out there - some of it managed by professionals

So, today the market will boom then give most of it back. Then we will start getting a little bit of daily growth for a while.

Till we find the 'Obama Economic Miracle' discount. :nuts:

Guessing at -20% from the highs. Only a guess.

That gives me about 80 - 100 points.

Got to be in to win

Looks like you may have a SS buy signal at your back.

 

[Boghie]

Looks like you may have a SS buy signal at your back.

I scanned your blog on Sunday and spotted the potential SS Buy...

I have another IFT in my pocket to move fully into the market if SS seems ot point to a strong long term buy signal. There are lots of strategies on this MB about the use of IFTs. I hate to use them on bail outs. I think a staged buy in is the best use of the 2 IFTs we have. To me, they are more important than a 5% correction

However, I think this will be a weak uptrend. It already seems to be flattening. It will probably degrade to a small increase. That will be fine with me.

Still, ya gotta be in to win

 

[Birchtree]

The fun today may start after 1400 hours as we take out SPX 1190 and Dow 11,000. The power is definitely available to bleed the short hairs and force them to cover. I can feel a parabolic panic stampede building - showing signs on my seismograph.

 

[nasa1974]

The fun today may start after 1400 hours as we take out SPX 1190 and Dow 11,000. The power is definitely available to bleed the short hairs and force them to cover. I can feel a parabolic panic stampede building - showing signs on my seismograph.

That's what I am afraid of.

 

[Boghie]

BT,

If that happens I have the awful decision you always mention...

Fully join the stampede hoping some of it is long term smart money (that is, immediately invest the remaining 17% sitting on the Lilly Pad), sit tight waiting for a pull back before going all in, or think I am the 'Caesar of Investing' (now, that would be a good name/alias) and attempt to time my in and out.

Thus, sitting in a normal market allocation seems to make the most sense.

I can jig this way, jag that way.
Have nice gains and protect a bit from losses.
And, still hold that valuable IFT for greedy capitalist pig time.

 

[Boghie]

Me thinks I like that little uptick at the end of the day

'Muggle the Cat' seances good tidings:nuts:

BirchTree's kitty concurs

Saturns Rings

 

[Boghie]

The Buttheads at TSP haven't acted on my IFT

I'm already kinda mad I missed out on a big day, and they might waddle around and process me tomorrow

Yowser...