Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Boghie,

The ISM on Monday may lead to a shock and awe - wouldn't that shake the pillars of economic gloom and doom. By the way - it's good to have another bullish perspective by someone else on the board that remains consistent. Let me know if you ever want to be knighted to a permabull #2 status.

Birch,

Don't know if I am a permabull. I don't think anyone knows - or can even guess - what is the point at which this market will act as a standard, boring market. But, I am a bull till the market tells me I'm not. I play at the margins, but most of my holdings have been in equities since April.

Anyway, consumers have saved more and initiated personal paydowns of debt. This has been going on for a year. Both bode well for personal cash flow. Folks now have a savings cushion and more manageable credit card payments. Also, I have noted an increase in traffic at the businesses I frequent. That resulted in me making some of the major purchases I have been holding off on for quite some time. Why wait till the items are no longer on sale. I even used some credit :nuts:

 

[Boghie]

Going Gault Part II...

It is that time again...

Kaleforneea is going to unilaterally increase the withholding from my salary by 10%.

Los Angeles Times:

Reporting from Los Angeles and Sacramento - Starting Sunday, cash-strapped California will dig deeper into the pocketbooks of wage earners -- holding back 10% more than it already does in state income taxes just as the biggest shopping season of the year kicks into gear.

Technically, it's not a tax increase, even though it may feel like one when your next paycheck arrives. As part of a bundle of budget patches adopted in the summer, the state is taking more money now in withholding, even though workers' annual tax bills won't change.

Think of it as a forced, interest-free loan: You'll be repaid any extra withholding in April.​

Certainly, they will pay me back as soon as I file my tax return...

Now, that is a deal I can work with:nuts:

Certainly, almost certainly...

And, according to the Left Angeles Times, you should think of the hidden graping hand as a 'fix':

The extra withholding may seem like a small amount siphoned from each paycheck, but it adds up to a $1.7-billion fix for California's deficit-riddled books.

From a single taxpayer earning $51,000 a year with no dependents, the state will be grabbing an extra $17.59 each month, according to state tax officials. A married person earning $90,000 with two dependents would receive $24.87 less in monthly pay.

California will probably continue to collect the tax at a higher rate for many years -- or find an additional $1.7 billion to slice from a future budget, an unlikely occurrence. All workers who have state taxes withheld will see their paychecks shrink.
​

Yeah, that's the ticket...

I, however, have other ideas.

With less credit card debt and more savings I think I can afford to purchase more equity shares in my TSP account. In my second Ah Ha moment of the year I realize that I can Zero out this grab and make myself a fabulously rich oldster!!! Or, maybe there is a Charity out there looking for some assets.

Tis the season to give

My next post will be the math. Amoeba - and the other unlucky Kaleforneeans in TSPLand - may want to jigger their personal finances in similar ways. That is: TSP, HSA/FSA, Charity, better health insurance, a housing upgrade, etc...

Maybe time to buy a nice house right next to John Gault - in Utah.

 

[Boghie]

Why, I really don't know...

Migrating back into equities holdings.

Why...

I don't know...

But, it seems as if the fear has subsided. And, we don't have as many folks screaming Depression in a crowded theater this week. And, I have to remember that 90% of this country does not live in the Peoples Republic of Kaleforea where the Gubmint has decided to borrow an additional 10% from the little people.

Things are stabalizing, the short term panic is receeding.

G: 25%
F: 0%
C: 48%
S: 15%
I: 12%

Sure do like BirchTrees allocation for equities

 

[Boghie]

Probably Should Follow UpTrend OUT-THE-DOOR

Looks like a sugar high...

How long can the G8 Sugar Daddies goose this thing? And, why?

Can't they just let us adjust a bit? I mean, for the past few weeks it looked as if we were adjusting to the new reality. A bit down from the highs, a big up from the lows. I am ok with that. Let the market and economy find it's equilibrium. We don't need to be high all the time.

Soon the FED will act to strengthen the dollar. That time is now sooner rather than later.

Should have bailed today. Expect the smart money to run...

 

[Boghie]

It Isn't Everyday...

It isn't everyday when one gains 1.75% and loses market share

Only on TSPTalk

You guys are a tough crowd. And, now I hear BirchTree racing his engine and honking his horn. I’m thinking he’s from Boston or New York or some hell hole turd world country. So rude :cheesy:

Love and Kisses everybody :toung:

 

[tsptalk]

It is a tough crowd. I see you are up over 27% for the year and that only gets you to #28 on the list for the year. Amazing.

I see love-to-bike is beating the C-fund by almost 9% since Oct 1 (3rd qtr), the I-fund by over 9%, and the S-fund by 12.5%. That's some fancy footwork.

 

[Handballer]

Re: It Isn't Everyday...

It isn't everyday when one gains 1.75% and loses market share

Only on TSPTalk

You guys are a tough crowd. And, now I hear BirchTree racing his engine and honking his horn. I’m thinking he’s from Boston or New York or some hell hole turd world country. So rude :cheesy:

Love and Kisses everybody :toung:

Back at you, big guy

 

[Boghie]

Still Minus After All These Years...

This year doing good...

Last year didn't completely collapse...

Still minus after all these years I just entered all my transactions to the returns spreadsheet since the high on October 9, 2007. I have a marvelous two year return of -4.26%.

Looking at the patterns:

• I seem to be pretty good at limiting my losses.
• Not so good at maximizing the gains.

I almost never beat the return of the 'C Fund' during an up trend

After all the 'sturm an drang' of the past two years I have beat a 20% holding in G/F/C/S/I by 7%. Seven percent over two years. Was it worth the effort?

Investing purely in the 'G Fund' would have resulted in a 7.53% gain.
Investing purely in the 'F Fund' would have resulted in a 15.56% gain.

Lately, I have tried to take a more moderate tone on trading. Tried to slow down. It may not seem like it, but look at the allocation changes from mid May through October. It seems to have helped.

We have already survived the 'once in a lifetime crash' - haven't we...

 

[Boghie]

Less Than Hopefull Haiku

This is my FIRST try at Haiku...

Kalefornea is great
Was it 1998
Partied like 1999; in 2009
by Kalefornea is Broke​

Calculated Risk's 'Soylent Green is People' - my Haiku god - must be writing and editing the finest three lines ever to be published. Certainly, the fall of Kalefornea will bring out his/her best...

My recommendation to those that don't live in the Fools Gold State:

When we come to you, palms up.

Make a simple and direct statement.

Drop Dead Kalefornea​

 

[nnuut]

TAXAFORNIA

 

[Boghie]

TAXAFORNIA

NNuut,

Come to Kalefornea :nuts:

It's not just taxes bro. We've got:

• Crappy schools that consume more than 40% of our budget and teach in every language under the sun and moon and have an administrative staff from hell.
• Highway infrastructure built in the 60s and 70s - but with modern bus lanes and empty rail lines waiting for your subsidized riding pleasure.
• Beautiful Delta Smelts (little sardine fishes) that require us to vacation in Mexico to bathe and import our food from the Okies.
• A medical system built around the Tower of Babble and supporting citizens from a myriad of countries
• A shrinking tax base as the Evil Rich move the eight miles to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe
• An income tax bracket scheme that puts middle class families in the next to top bracket
• And, a safety net so plush everybody jumps aboard and grabs a juicy piece.

There are so many goodies I cannot list them in order of yumminess.:nuts:

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Still Minus After All These Years...

I just entered all my transactions to the returns spreadsheet

Are you using the one by Scout in the Utilities section of this site? I've been meaning to try that one day.

My PIP on the TSP website finally turned positive this month, but i think it's wrong somewhere, i'm not sure i've been doing that good.

 

[Boghie]

Nad's In!!!

For no real reason other than we have had a few flat to down days...

And, I will be on vacation starting Wednesday...

Figure I have to add a bit of risk for a bit of return till the day I go Granny Lilly Pad on you all. This is my final IFT for the month - both forward moves. I have an infinite number of bailouts to G. Why sit around. Plus, the market looks like it has reached a stabalizing point.

G: 10%
F: 10%
C: 50%
S: 15%
I: 15%

:toung:

 

[FAB1]

NNuut,

Come to Kalefornea :nuts:

It's not just taxes bro. We've got:

• Crappy schools that consume more than 40% of our budget and teach in every language under the sun and moon and have an administrative staff from hell.
• Highway infrastructure built in the 60s and 70s - but with modern bus lanes and empty rail lines waiting for your subsidized riding pleasure.
• Beautiful Delta Smelts (little sardine fishes) that require us to vacation in Mexico to bathe and import our food from the Okies.
• A medical system built around the Tower of Babble and supporting citizens from a myriad of countries
• A shrinking tax base as the Evil Rich move the eight miles to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe
• An income tax bracket scheme that puts middle class families in the next to top bracket
• And, a safety net so plush everybody jumps aboard and grabs a juicy piece.

There are so many goodies I cannot list them in order of yumminess.:nuts:

How about a quickly growing population and rapidly shrinking water supply

That'll put a nice taste in yer mouth.

 

[Boghie]

Two Days Up/Two Days Down???

I don't see anything real negative coming.

However, I don't want to be thinking of losing a year's retirement income while munching on Lieutenant Dan's San Felipe shrimp. Last year shocked me. This year was juicy. But, unlike diamonds, market gains ain't forever...

G: 45%
F: 10%
C: 20%
S: 15%
I: 10%

Anyway, this is a defensive move to avoid large losses while eating the bounty of the Gulf of California. Who wants to be sitting around with the potential of 5%+ declines/day matched with the potential of 1%+ gains/day.

My Quicken thingy tells me I am reducing expected annual return from 8% to 5% while reducing risk from 11% to 6%. Risk is some form of standard deviation and is thus a variance. Thus, the 11% (or 6%) could also be a market gain. Therefore, I am using the casino's money right now anyway.

There are only two/three light trading days anyway in the American market anyway.

 

[Boghie]

I Found A Simple Way to Reduce Risk

Before the great shrimp fest I searched for a way to reduce risk in my TSP account.

This was the result:

I don't see anything real negative coming.

However, I don't want to be thinking of losing a year's retirement income while munching on Lieutenant Dan's San Felipe shrimp. Last year shocked me. This year was juicy. But, unlike diamonds, market gains ain't forever...

G: 45%
F: 10%
C: 20%
S: 15%
I: 10%

Anyway, this is a defensive move to avoid large losses while eating the bounty of the Gulf of California. Who wants to be sitting around with the potential of 5%+ declines/day matched with the potential of 1%+ gains/day.

My Quicken thingy tells me I am reducing expected annual return from 8% to 5% while reducing risk from 11% to 6%. Risk is some form of standard deviation and is thus a variance. Thus, the 11% (or 6%) could also be a market gain. Therefore, I am using the casino's money right now anyway.

There are only two/three light trading days anyway in the American market anyway.

I have just found another!!!

Lose money in your equities funds

My Quicken thingy tells me I now have a risk of 5% rather than 6%!!! I've never been happier in my life - not :nuts:

 

[nnuut]

NNuut,

Come to Kalefornea :nuts:

It's not just taxes bro. We've got:

• Crappy schools that consume more than 40% of our budget and teach in every language under the sun and moon and have an administrative staff from hell.
• Highway infrastructure built in the 60s and 70s - but with modern bus lanes and empty rail lines waiting for your subsidized riding pleasure.
• Beautiful Delta Smelts (little sardine fishes) that require us to vacation in Mexico to bathe and import our food from the Okies.
• A medical system built around the Tower of Babble and supporting citizens from a myriad of countries
• A shrinking tax base as the Evil Rich move the eight miles to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe
• An income tax bracket scheme that puts middle class families in the next to top bracket
• And, a safety net so plush everybody jumps aboard and grabs a juicy piece.

There are so many goodies I cannot list them in order of yumminess.:nuts:

I know, relatives still live there I left in 1959!!! When I arrived in South Carolina I was surprised that in the 9th grade they didn't have any electives, in Southern California I had taken Mechanical drawing, Wood Shop, Metal Shop, Dramatics all kinds of other stuff was available. We had 2 Gymnasiums a theater, a Giant Stadium, lots of Money!! None of that stuff in SC, but academically SC was a year and a half ahead of Southern California. I had a hell of a time trying to catch up, almost failed and had to go to Summer School. That explains why in California 2 years of Junior College is funded by the state.

 

[Boghie]

Alas, My Gaze Deceives Me

Alas, my name in TSPTalks 'AutoTracker Top 10' - merely an apparition....

How beautiful it is, as ephemeral and glancing as it was…

A result of a function of an update…

A technical artifact…

200911301650 …

Forever…

Not!

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Two Days Up/Two Days Down???

My Quicken thingy tells me I am reducing expected annual return from 8% to 5% while reducing risk from 11% to 6%.

What version of Quicken are you using? Santa is thinking about bringing me some new software this year, and i've been looking around making my list. Is it the 'premier' version that includes investment tracking?

Can you track TSP too? what symbols do you use? does it update automatically? annual renewal fees?

Lot of questions there, but i am spending too much time manually tracking and no way to review history in depth like i would like to be able to. wastes time resources and leads to only partially informed decisions.

Any help or recommendations would be appreciated.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Two Days Up/Two Days Down???

What version of Quicken are you using? Santa is thinking about bringing me some new software this year, and i've been looking around making my list. Is it the 'premier' version that includes investment tracking?

Can you track TSP too? what symbols do you use? does it update automatically? annual renewal fees?

Lot of questions there, but i am spending too much time manually tracking and no way to review history in depth like i would like to be able to. wastes time resources and leads to only partially informed decisions.

Any help or recommendations would be appreciated.

Burrocrat,

It is actually the interface for Quicken that pointed me to TSPTalk. I have never run into 1212Computer anywhere on this site, but he/she keeps an up to date file that can be imported into Quicken for G/F/C/S/I/L Funds. Here is the link. I followed his/her instructions to the T and have had no problems.

I also see he/she has some charts that might be interesting.

You are, of course, familiar with the AutoTracker. Look at the very bottom for some matricies. I especially like the 'Return Analysis'. Gives me a good place to look at the allocations of folks I follow - and see how they are doing.

Finally, the links to the Yahoo EFT charts for our fund proxies allows you to play with the charting tools the brainiacs around here understand. Fun, sometimes useful, but watch out. Not for ignits like me

You have to use Quicken Premier. That is the one with investment tracking. The juiciest thing I have found lately is actually a report - namely, the 'Investment Performance' report. Make certain you use the Buy/Sell transaction actions rather than the Add/Remove actions. Then you can get Internal Rates of Return by whatever duration you want. Other than the Retirement Planner, that is the best tool I have run across. Keeps you honest. Also, make certain you place the TSP fund 'securities' you create (as instructed by 1212Computer) into a single 'account'. That way, you can group all the TSP Funds ('Securities') together and see stats as a whole - or separately. I can't say its easy to use, or that it always rings true - but it is a good tool.