Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Gold Bugs Rejoice!!!

Howdy Gold Bugs...

I have slammed the use of gold as an investment for quite some time. When I was buying my gold in the early 2000's I knew I was paying a premium. Maybe that plus-up was a numismatic premium - but it sure felt like a commission. Also, a friend of mine received significantly less than the spot price when he sold some of his Draconic Geld

So, it looked like a double-bloated shotgun of commissions to me

If I wanted that I would have invested in a bloated Life Insurance Annuity

Anyway, I've got to buy something with cash this week so I figured I'd dump the shiny metal on the market. I called for a price quote and received the spot price. Wow.

We will see tomorrow if that holds true... :suspicious:

 

[burrocrat]

Good for you, I say take the money and run, win one for the retail investor! Enjoy your purchase. Who cares where it goes from here? Assuming you bought around $300-$350 you should realize 200% profit, how often does that happen?

By way of comparison, in the early 90's I bought several hundred shares of ICOS, a biotech, simply because Bill Gates put his money behind it, at that time he could do no wrong, so it was good enough for me. Sold it all 1-1/2 years later for a 3-bagger and thought i was king of the world. Watched it go to 10+ times purchase price not long after that. Beyond a little short-term remorse, i never kicked myself about that trade. It's all relative. Profit is profit. Take it when you can get it. Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

Just be ready for the withdrawl symptoms to set in, that stuff is addicting, something about the heft of it in your hands. Maybe you can hold a little back and get the best of both worlds.

 

[Boghie]

All In, Again - Very Odd Market

It's September,

And, I'm ALL IN!!!

My 'F Fund' holdings are just holding me back right now. I am saving an IFT for a proper allocation later this month. Normally, some assets should be in the 'F Fund' - but right now I think the Big Ent (BirchTree) is right. Money is moving into the various stock funds. Too much money is in safety assets right now and has to be allocated properly.

To me, that means there is a stock play.

And, Steady is ALL IN as well.

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

 

[Boghie]

Nothing Like It...

Birch will love this...

There is nothing like a tiny one-day market dump the moment your paycheck contributions are invested. It makes those investing in the equities funds look like market makers and inside traders

That just makes the plus-up match all the better

 

[Boghie]

Re: Gold Bugs Rejoice!!!

Howdy Gold Bugs...

I have slammed the use of gold as an investment for quite some time. When I was buying my gold in the early 2000's I knew I was paying a premium. Maybe that plus-up was a numismatic premium - but it sure felt like a commission. Also, a friend of mine received significantly less than the spot price when he sold some of his Draconic Geld

So, it looked like a double-bloated shotgun of commissions to me

If I wanted that I would have invested in a bloated Life Insurance Annuity

Anyway, I've got to buy something with cash this week so I figured I'd dump the shiny metal on the market. I called for a price quote and received the spot price. Wow.

We will see tomorrow if that holds true... :suspicious:

Well, I promised...

Gold Bugs, it looks as if there is a 7%+ commission on selling American Gold Eagles.

I received gold spot price + 5/oz$.

Amercan Eagles sell for spot price + 7%+ at the sites I found for small orders. All in all, not nearly as bad as I thought.

However, remember that you will pay a 7%+ premium to purchase the Eagles when it comes time to buy them as well.

So, you buy at a 7% premium - and sell at a 7% discount. Not a real problem if you bought at $250 an ounce. It is a problem if you buy and sell within 14% of the gold spot price.

 

[Boghie]

Yeah...

Best 3rd Quarter since
1939

Does this thing feel like it is finally turning over...

I figured that the market would stabilize at -20% from the high point. Just felt that the economy ain't going to grow as businesses and people continue to plan for their glorious tax and regulation increases. Hoping against hope that I could grab what I could when I could.

The evil BusHitler tax cuts (including the marriage penalty) sunsets in 2010. Don't know if that means I get whacked in April of 2011 or April of 2012. Just the marriage penalty will cost me 5% of my current net income. And that’s not all. There’s more!!!

Either way it hurts. And to prep for that I cannot be buying things that put me in any debt. I have got to have the cash flow to feed the grasping hand. The mordida is coming. Gotta save to survive.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Yeah...

The mordida is coming..

I agree with you, taxes have to go up, either that or acknowledge the insolvency. But wait there's more. Inflation is the new tax, and best of all no elected officials had to vote for it, a private corporation took care of that for us about 100 years ago.

It is coming.

 

[Boghie]

What is the Obama Economy???

What damage can one President do???

Don't really know.

But, my guess is that tax uncertainty, regulation certainty, and Czar Management are worth some drop in equity value and GDP.

Anyway, the market seems kinda toppy. I really didn't want to initiate a trade, but...

G: 30%
F: 0%
C: 45%
S: 15%
I: 10%

BTW, when I try to log into the tracker I keep getting a 'Session Timed Out' message in red underneath the id and password fields. Will try again later. Otherwise, I will have to email TSPTalk with this change.

 

[Birchtree]

Beep, beep - thanks for the opportunity.

 

[Boghie]

Omens...

I have been trying to reduce some risk.
I have been trying to trade less.
To trade in smaller chunks.
Smooth things out.
Lay Low.

I believe I lost some growth by bouncing around in big moves this year. Thinking political sometimes. Being hyper-aware of smallish market moves other times. But, not being very good as far as market timing. All this while never believing a market timing methodology works for me. Time for a 12 step program

Anyway, the current market appears toppy with none of the dip buying we have seen over the past six months. I wanted to reduce my risk in a small move. Still remember 6% daily downdrafts from last year. I guess I’ll never forget those…

But, TSP crashed…

W???

I hope to God it isn’t because of bandwidth and/or traffic. That would not be good. Not good at all.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Omens...

I have been trying to reduce some risk.
I have been trying to trade less.
To trade in smaller chunks.
Smooth things out.
Lay Low.

I believe I lost some growth by bouncing around in big moves this year. Thinking political sometimes. Being hyper-aware of smallish market moves other times. But, not being very good as far as market timing. All this while never believing a market timing methodology works for me. Time for a 12 step program

Anyway, the current market appears toppy with none of the dip buying we have seen over the past six months. I wanted to reduce my risk in a small move. Still remember 6% daily downdrafts from last year. I guess I’ll never forget those…

But, TSP crashed…

W???

I hope to God it isn’t because of bandwidth and/or traffic. That would not be good. Not good at all.

Hell, I'll just quote myself:nuts:

We are down less than five points from the high. I still seem to be in the crash program. TSP probably just saved me from a silly market move.

Back to step one of the twelve stepper.

I admit I am powerless to ignore premonitions of market crashes :nuts:

 

[Boghie]

Time for Dinner...

On Monday I will be able to initiate two more forward trades...

What is the difference between today and the past week or so?
Decent GDP growth - 3.5% in Q3
Rather than the two year norm

I think the upside of this market is about 1200 on the S&P. That is about 13% higher than at this moment. A very nice looking couple of birds flying up there in the sky.

But, look, right here in my hand is a nice plump pheasant.

Yummy.

I think I'll kinda sit down and cook this one the way I like it. While cooking, I'll aim some arrows at the airborne delectables. Why spend all my time staring at my dinner.

G: 50%
F: 0%, nada
C: 30%
S: 10%
I: 10%

My Quicken thing told me the risk of breaking my arrows on the rocks with a 30/10/10 split was a bit less than at 35/10/5. And, I should still hit one of them.

 

[Boghie]

Rolling Over...

Not Certain,

But things don't smell so good in the equities market. We are

Rolling over...

Will this be a healthy 7% - 15% correction in a raging bull market, or a long lasting dump to equilibrium. Maybe Obamanomics is worth more than a 30% discount from the high point. My guess is that no President can account for a long duration economic flat line with a 30% discount.

But, then again, we are talking about Carter II

 

[Boghie]

Wow,

A 12% change in the VIX so far

Don't know what that means. Just started to follow the VIX after BirchTree mentioned it. Never seen that big of a change.

 

[Nordic]

Wow,

A 12% change in the VIX so far

Don't know what that means. Just started to follow the VIX after BirchTree mentioned it. Never seen that big of a change.

Oiy, try 17% now :blink:

 

[Boghie]

Me Thinks...

Me thinks,
.. next week might be a great buying opportunity.


This is a reaction to another Obama economic policy. In this case, healthcare regulation in the teeth of a recession/depression.

Folks, we ain't going to see inflation till the next President comes into office - or, until this one realizes that his Congress is filled with economic morons. :toung:

We will find out just how tough it is to fight deflation with the 'Banking Queen' looking over the shoulder of the Fed to ensure each 'i' is dotted and each 't' is crossed. At least Congressman Frank won't be another Czar!

I don't think we are diving into a W.
I hope this is a bull market correction.
However, it might be setting an economic equilibrium.

 

[Nordic]

Wow,

A 12% change in the VIX so far

Don't know what that means. Just started to follow the VIX after BirchTree mentioned it. Never seen that big of a change.

....now at 24% and counting. Wonder what some of the VIX swings got up to late last year and earlier this year? Wasn't keeping track of it on a daily basis then.

 

[Birchtree]

The high for the VIX last fall was 89. And I was buying my little heart out.

 

[Boghie]

Depression is a state of mind.
It differs from fear, greed, hope, and panic.

All can be emotions of an economic polity. We have felt them all. Greed in 2007. Fear in early 2008. Panic till March 2009. Fear thereafter.

What, then, awaits us.
I pray for hope.

But other perceptive folks are finding depression.

Hope:worried:

 

[Birchtree]

Boghie,

The ISM on Monday may lead to a shock and awe - wouldn't that shake the pillars of economic gloom and doom. By the way - it's good to have another bullish perspective by someone else on the board that remains consistent. Let me know if you ever want to be knighted to a permabull #2 status.