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Re: From the Clotheshores...

Mcqlives said:
I'm a monkey!
Click to expand...

oooh oooh, heee heee! so you're the one flinging poo at the stock charts and making the indices go crazy?

careful with those bananas, they got peels and there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.

my grandma once told me 'eat a banana a day and you'll live forever'. then she died, potassium poisoning tjey think it was.
 
Re: From the Clotheshores...

Burro,

It ain't a hole really. Just kinda a way to hide in the tall grass. I'm guessing it is time to move out of the hidey-hole a bit - you can't pounce from a prone position. So, the big cat views some luscious yummies out there on the savanna. And, one has to take chances to eat. But not too much, not too much. I remember the drought of a few years ago. Pouncing out of the tall grass just to get smashed by an iron horse with a bright light out front. Bad memories of looking up at the 'G Fund'. That grass was tall back then and the hidey-hole was deep; could not see much. We might be pouncing into the path of an on-coming train, but one has to eat...

Allocation:
20% G - I wish the 'F Fund' would just correct so I could start using it rather than the Treasuries Slush Fund
0% F - Cannot be trusted
34% C - Can't figure out if I should overweight C or I. Kinda like the I, but...
18% S - A bit of alpa
28% I - I am thinking this one is ready. Food on the savanna:)

Expected Annual Return: 6% after inflation (something like 9% in terms we all can get our heads wrapped around)
Expected Annual Risk: 8%
Thus, normally (2/3rds of the time) one could expect a return of 1% through 17% with this allocation.​

I'm only increasing equities by 5%. I was hoping for a more sustained drop to the 6% - 10% range. My work network is blocking the financial charts so I am forced into patience. But that is often a good thing. If equities dump more than 10% I will start stepping out, but right now is a time to start stepping up to the plains level. You gotta eat and I missed lots of meals last year. Not quite licking the Alpo can, but:p
 
Re: Pseudoscience

Ah, the smell of conflict in the morning...

I think I will buy on the next +5% dip. Don't like the view - being blocked by all those ugly black swans - but me thinks that one must eat when one can...
 
Re: Pseudoscience

"Do You Think It’s A Top?", Points and Figures, Jeff Carter

This is why index investing rules for the average investor.

When I was in the pit, even in situations where the market was limit up or limit down, you could find some scraps and ways to try and trim a losing position. The retail guys didn’t get the chance. They were stuck.

As I read this article, I noticed the ages of the guys that were trading. They were 29, 31; young. They don’t remember 2000. 1987 looks like 1929 to them. It all seems so easy when markets go straight up.

They see and smell the money and want a taste. Greed is a powerful emotion. Here’s what I want to tell them. You can’t beat the market. Being a good trader isn’t about picking tops and bottoms. Being a good, no, a great trader is knowing what to do with your losers.

Just like athletics, when you are winning life is easy.
Click to expand...

Folks, in TSP we is even more retail than retail...
 
Re: Pseudoscience

I was thinking I could catch some of you...

But, being the predators you all are, you are jumping into equities...

I need some dumb money around here or I will never bump up the AutoTracker rank...:laugh:
 
Where is all that dumb money!!!

I was thinking I could catch some of you...

But, being the predators you all are, you are jumping into equities...

I need some dumb money around here or I will never bump up the AutoTracker rank...:laugh:
 
Black Swan...

Well, MH370 pinged a satellite hours later than last noted...
Apparently, nobody has military or civilian radar contact with the plane after Malaysia...
Also, Malaysian military radar indicates that the plane climbed above it's safe ceiling and then descended and changed direction...

Why hasn't the following question been answered:
We know what the fuel load should have been (thus its range limit), what was the actual fuel load?

I am also interested in the rate of change as the plane ascended. If graceful than perhaps one of the pilots did it while the other was asleep or otherwise tasked. I don't know how obvious it is as a plane exceeds its safe zone. It might be sudden or it might be something noticeable. This could imply a deceitful attempt to knock out the pilot or copilot along with the rest of the crew or passengers. So, would a rapid rise. And, if not fully successful, than the descent could imply some sort of conflict that was won by the bad guys.

A satellite ping now places the plane the plane somewhere in the two red arcs:

MAL370_PingJPG.JPG

I am guessing that the arc gap is excluded because radar would have picked up the plane in this region. There was no reading from the plane one hour later - when the next satellite was available. The hijack scenario is now the most likely...

I don't like what I see for the northwest path. Not at all. I don't like it that the plane seemed to avoid radar. Not at all. I also don't like it that lots of military fighting assets are now in use for the search. I expect that - you bring everything to bear - but assets without real search capabilities seem to be on the move and the Chinese seem very concerned. I am concerned about Iran. That northwest zone is very troubling.

I wish I was not invested 80%. Yowser...
 
Re: Black Swan...

Yes this whole thing is very interesting. With the available information that is out there for "our" eyes to see it does seem like the thing was hijacked. To what end is anyone's guess. There is enough stuff orbiting this planet that looks down on it that I would think someone, someplace has more information. 777's don't just vanish.

I am glad I am not in equities right now. A Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine could be a black swan event and this missing plane thing has the potential to be a black duck.
 
Re: Black Swan...

CrabClaw said:
Yes this whole thing is very interesting. With the available information that is out there for "our" eyes to see it does seem like the thing was hijacked. To what end is anyone's guess. There is enough stuff orbiting this planet that looks down on it that I would think someone, someplace has more information. 777's don't just vanish.

I am glad I am not in equities right now. A Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine could be a black swan event and this missing plane thing has the potential to be a black duck.
Click to expand...

CrabClaw,

I have seen satellite imagery for GIS work. The public stuff - which is actually quite good. I do not think a satellite would be useful in this case. I don't think they use satellites to track aircraft via sensors. They may come in useful for locating either wreckage or - if the aircraft landed - the plane itself. However, even that would be pure luck. In the case of a landing you would have to have a satellite interested in that section at that time - otherwise you would have to direct one of the pointable satellites to that region. Both of those would require knowledge of where the plane is. Both would become assets after the fact.

Also, there could be two Black Swans. Since we are likely to write-off the poor souls in the Crimean and the Baltics than I do not see anything other than huffing and puffing. Can anyone imagine a tough response from either America or Europe to Putin grabbing some territory? Me neither.

But, a civilian aircraft - refueled, repainted, loaded with explosives and passengers - and professionally flown in a manner not likely to elicit a military response could be a very different thing. The very worst thing would be that plane being a stealth nuke. Trinity occurred July 16, 1945, the first atomic device was used August 6, 1945. And, folks in the know have been marking time for Iran creating weapons. Stealth need not be something invisible to radar, it could be something unimaginable being spotted on radar and not intercepted.
 
Knocking Some of the Variance Off...

Well,

I allowed some (all :~{) of this years gains to wash away. But, it was only 2 and a half points anyway...

Regardless, today's flat market gives me a chance to remove some variance from my allocation. Going to a standard conservative allocation:

G: 12%
F: 27%
C: 37%
S: 13%
I: 11%

Average Annual Return: 5%
Variance/Risk: 7%​

This move lops a point off of return and two points off of risk. It also places me into one of Ric Edelman's portfolio allocations. Science:nuts:
 
"No Mas!!!"

Re(1): 'The Outlines of the Monster', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

The ulcers of the Obama years are now festering. The menaces, once so vague, are taking on a definite shape. America may potentially face severe security challenges in Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Poland, Baltics), Southwest Asia (Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan), the Middle East (Syria, Yemen, Iraq), North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Sub-sahara) and East Asia (South China Sea, North Korea, Taiwan and Japan). All of these hotspots are simmering, though none as yet have blown up into an severe international crisis.

But in each of these theaters the design margin is ebbing away. The potential for danger in each of them is growing and in time they will flow into each other. For American resources that must rush to meet one of them cannot also meet the other. Once the trouble starts in one place, the bad actors in other places will seize their chance for mischief.

Nor do we see a president tirelessly organizing the bulwarks of democracy at every threatened point, unless he is doing so from the golf course or at fund raisers. It is in this context that Obama’s rambling “defense policy” speech at West Point should be understood.

It was his “no mas” speech, to quote Roberto Duran.
Click to expand...

The 'end of history' is so 1990s!!!
 
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