Boghies Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Pseudoscience

"The optimistic outlook for this year builds on the good news that Europe finally seems ready to grow again. Albeit at a sluggish pace, Europe's growth at least will add to the acceleration of global economic growth rather than detracting from it. And Japan, having deployed actions to stimulate growth similar to those the United States took, is expected to be a healthy contributor to global growth."

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Re: Pseudoscience

So, here goes a bit of steaming. Dang if it ain't in public...

Ten years ago, on January 2 2004 our funds stood at:

Fund	Average Return	2004 Value	Expected 2013 Value	Current Value	Delta	Delta %
F	6%	$9.94	$17.80	$15.76	$2.04	12.94%
C	10%	$11.61	$30.11	$23.66	$6.45	27.26%
S	11%	$12.50	$35.49	$33.45	$2.04	6.1%
I	11%	$12.99	$36.88	$25.33	$11.55	45.60%

We obviously have had a hard time crawling out of 2008, but crawl we have. The annual growth numbers are from Quicken (actually Newport Group) and ARE NOT inflation adjusted like they are presented in Quicken's Asset Allocation Guide. I did not use the inflation adjusted growth rates because I wanted to see the end results in today's dollars - and, because we are used to seeing non-adjusted rates. For example, we always see the S&P500 long term annual growth rate as about 10%, but inflation adjusted it becomes about 7%.

So, where does that leave us. Based on my Pseudoscience SWAG I believe the 'I Fund' is the place to be with a little stability provided by the 'C Fund'. Run from the S and F Funds. Run from the 'S Fund' because it is nearing its norms and run from the 'F Fund' because it has been market adjusted by the FED. So, an aggressive allocation would be BirchTree's. Not quite there for me, but over-allocating into the 'I Fund' seems to be in my future...

This is the purest form of pseudoscience but it is all I got.

Hi Boghie, Great Analysis!! Also, With debt at $17T one would expect a drop in the dollars value, which I think would also translate to the I fund outperforming the S and C fund this year. But will see...I'm still predominately in S but keeping eyes on I fund and thinking to move some from S to I especially after looking at your analysis. Best wishes for this year!

 

[Boghie]

Re: Pseudoscience

Except this time the Kings took selfies.

 

[Boghie]

Thoughts - But is it a Plan???

Thoughts, plans, whatever...

So, here goes a thought that might be a plan but will probably turn into a personal fiasco:

1. If the S&P500 declines less than 5% from its highs do absolutely nothing. This is market noise.
2. If the S&P500 declines between 6% and 10% consider it a time to buy. A minor 'correction'.
3. If the S&P500 declines more than 10% then start selling out and sitting the sidelines.

Basically, nap through the small stuff, get greedy on normal fear, and start bailing on a full correction. What this means is that I will ignore noise that would scare me out of the market based on dumbness. It also means that I will be moving assets to risk during a lite correction - market is on a bit of a sale. However, realize that 25% of my assets were already saved from a traumatic 5% crash:nuts:. That money would be filtered into equities in 5% - 10% chunks based on my IFT count. Finally, with 75% of my assets invested in a 10%+ dive and some amount to the remaining 25% losing some value I will start selling in - say - 10% - 20% chunks till the market starts moving up.

Just a few thoughts...

 

[Boghie]

From the Clotheshores...

A bit of advice from the Christmas Clotheshorse...

I purchased a number of shirts from Brooks Brothers and Charles Tyrwhitt. Both are of incredible quality, are truly non-iron (but I like the extra sharpness of a light ironing), are very comfortable, and can be expected to last quite some time. Both brands were on the low end of Joshua Kennon's 'Dress Shirts for Men 101'. Both purchases were 'off the rack. - neither was bespoke or made to measure.

Happy, happy, happy. And absolutely fearful of what it means to buy something better... Yowser...

But, now that I am better at gauging what I like, here goes a bit of unneeded advice (as if you all don't get enough of that already):

I think the Brooks Brothers shirts should probably be purchased with a sleeve length one size smaller than what one buys at the department store. The neck size is perfect. And, I would gauge the shoulder fit tremendous. I, personally, could use a bit more slimming in the waist - but I think that means made to measure and/or bespoke. The stuff I bought last year was a 34 sleeve - now I think a perfect sleeve for BB is probably a 33.

Contrarily, I think the Charles Tyrwhitt shirts should be bought one size larger in the sleeve and neck. I'm not saying anything negative at all. I am happy, happy, happy remember. But I can increase the neck size a half size which would result in a couple of inches as the shoulders. I probably want an inch - but now we are talking made to measure and/or bespoke. Because I took receipt of the BB shirts before I ordered from the Limeys on Jermyn Street I figured that a 34 sleeve was a proper fit. Now, I think I would bump a half in the neck and get a 35 sleeve.

Now, I am just being picky. Maybe I should join Joshua and be the first besotten bespoker in the shop:nuts:. Just think of a gubmint flat shoe (kinda) sitting around in $2K of clothes and a Rolex. I wouldn't be able to drink my first cup of coffee before I was dragged to the water torture chamber. We have ways of making you talk:laugh:.

 

[OBGibby]

Re: From the Clotheshores...

You're thread has morphed into Birchtree's - I now get all the "Browse 1000 Single Asian Women's Profiles" ads when viewing it!

 

[OBGibby]

Re: From the Clotheshores...

A bit of advice from the Christmas Clotheshorse...

I purchased a number of shirts from Brooks Brothers and Charles Tyrwhitt. Both are of incredible quality, are truly non-iron (but I like the extra sharpness of a light ironing), are very comfortable, and can be expected to last quite some time. Both brands were on the low end of Joshua Kennon's 'Dress Shirts for Men 101'. Both purchases were 'off the rack. - neither was bespoke or made to measure.

Happy, happy, happy. And absolutely fearful of what it means to buy something better... Yowser...

But, now that I am better at gauging what I like, here goes a bit of unneeded advice (as if you all don't get enough of that already):

I think the Brooks Brothers shirts should probably be purchased with a sleeve length one size smaller than what one buys at the department store. The neck size is perfect. And, I would gauge the shoulder fit tremendous. I, personally, could use a bit more slimming in the waist - but I think that means made to measure and/or bespoke. The stuff I bought last year was a 34 sleeve - now I think a perfect sleeve for BB is probably a 33.

Contrarily, I think the Charles Tyrwhitt shirts should be bought one size larger in the sleeve and neck. I'm not saying anything negative at all. I am happy, happy, happy remember. But I can increase the neck size a half size which would result in a couple of inches as the shoulders. I probably want an inch - but now we are talking made to measure and/or bespoke. Because I took receipt of the BB shirts before I ordered from the Limeys on Jermyn Street I figured that a 34 sleeve was a proper fit. Now, I think I would bump a half in the neck and get a 35 sleeve.

Now, I am just being picky. Maybe I should join Joshua and be the first besotten bespoker in the shop:nuts:. Just think of a gubmint flat shoe (kinda) sitting around in $2K of clothes and a Rolex. I wouldn't be able to drink my first cup of coffee before I was dragged to the water torture chamber. We have ways of making you talk:laugh:.

Which fit of the Brooks Brothers shirts did you get - Traditional, Slim, Regular? Wondering if that may be playing a role in the sleeve length issue.

 

[Boghie]

Re: From the Clotheshores...

Which fit of the Brooks Brothers shirts did you get - Traditional, Slim, Regular? Wondering if that may be playing a role in the sleeve length issue.

OBGibby,

Got the Brooks Brothers 'Slim Fit' and they fit great. I just think my actual (not department store) sleeve length is a 33. I think that sleeve length will make the whole BB fit perfect. There might be a little room about the waist, but I didn't notice that till I tried on the Charles Tyrwhitt shirts which are a tad tighter. I really will not know if I like the tighter waist till I wear one of the Tyrwhitt shirts all day at work.

My guess is that I will want the Tyrwhitt shirts one size larger in every direction, while the Brooks Brothers are good to go for me right now other than the sleeve length.

Both the BB and Tyrwhitt shirts seem of high quality and construction, but their fabrics differ quite a bit. The BB shirt fabric has a more crisp and tight feel to it. More of a sheen maybe. But, the Tyrwhitt shirts flow well and have a nice cuff.

I knew that these would be close but probably not perfect for off the shelf. My next purchase will be the best I can get from the rack because I will know my measurements as the companies know them. Happy, very happy.

 

[Boghie]

Re: From the Clotheshores...

You're thread has morphed into Birchtree's - I now get all the "Browse 1000 Single Asian Women's Profiles" ads when viewing it!

Um, uhh...

I will abstain from commenting because I am a database guy, a programmer, and a web developer. Um, uh, I kinda know how those ads get there - and it ain't me:cheesy:. The ads on all your threads when I view them seem to all be :embarrest:.

 

[OBGibby]

Re: From the Clotheshores...

The raciest site I visit is Drudge Report. My unofficial research strolling through the Forum reveals interesting ad matchups with different threads. I'm guessing that the ad matchups get paired based on keywords in the page loaded, cookies (I clear and run a scan daily for viruses, malware, etc.), and location from where I'm on the Internet from (I travel a bit). Birch's thread tends to produce some very "interesting" ads, while some of the others consistently target me with financial ads. Burrocrat associated threads never fail to impress, either! Maybe Burrocrat has a second job pushing Boost Mobile on the side.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Pseudoscience

i mostly get ads for those pills to make your equipment work like it did when you were 20. the pills might do the job, but it does me no good unless they fix the underlying problem. even back then it was 'all dressed up and nowhere to go'.

i like the ad with the couple watching the sunset while holding hands in separate bathtubs. some of my favorite things are sunsets, baths, and holding hands. very effective, it makes me want to go to the doctor to see if i'm healthy enough for that kind of activity. but the ad confuses me too, wouldn't it be a lot more fun if it was two people sharing one big tub? and every time i ask a girl if she would like to take a bath, i get slapped. the pills have unpleasant side effects effects though, the next day my wrist always is sore. i think i might have a carpal tunnel problem. i can't win for losing.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Pseudoscience

yep, sure enough, now i'm getting ads for big shiny trucks. maybe if i get one of those i could fit two bathtubs in the back.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Pseudoscience

Sssshhhh, don't tell anyone I visit TSPTalk...

Most of my ads seem to be Tivo and Brooks Brothers right now. Kinda late in the game for those, eh...

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Pseudoscience

so boghie, how do you plan on digging out of this hole? i'm in there with ya and shovelin' like ****.

it's no secret, i watch 3 indicators to inform my trades: 1 - sentiment gathered from multiple questionable sources, 2 - gut feeling, and 3 - what my friends do. then i usually slam it all in and promptly get my ass kicked.

but you are one of my friend indicators, i watch: alevin/mouse, boghie/lion, birchtree/elephant, and lately jth/wolf since he started representing technical research in a cartoon way i can read.

so what are you thinking? how do we get out of this hole?

 

[alevin]

Re: Pseudoscience

so boghie, how do you plan on digging out of this hole? i'm in there with ya and shovelin' like ****.

it's no secret, i watch 3 indicators to inform my trades: 1 - sentiment gathered from multiple questionable sources, 2 - gut feeling, and 3 - what my friends do. then i usually slam it all in and promptly get my ass kicked.

but you are one of my friend indicators, i watch: alevin/mouse, boghie/lion, birchtree/elephant, and lately jth/wolf since he started representing technical research in a cartoon way i can read.

so what are you thinking? how do we get out of this hole?

Careful bc, this lil mousie intends to roar someday (quietly of course). :cheesy:
Mouse That Roared, The -- (Movie Clip) Opening, Fenwick (classic boomer-era comedy/satire)

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Thoughts - But is it a Plan???

sorry for the thread hijack in advance, cuz. and sorry for the animal farm lense through which i see (but not really sorry because that's how it is). visceral, basic, i don't pretend to understand it, i just try not to pee with glee in the feed trough while i'm snorking up leftovers and castoffs with pure abandon. if you've ever tended swine you know what i'm talking about, those pigs will eat anything.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Pseudoscience

Careful bc, this lil mousie intends to roar someday (quietly of course).

how can one roar quietly? i don't get it. that reminds me of an old joke, but i'll get to that later. what was incorrect about the analogy?

bull in a china shop doesn't even begin to describe birchtree, although he clearly lacks tact and will stomp anything in his path. but nobody doubts he is the biggest beast on the savanah. definately elephant.

lion is a good fit for boghie because he obviously hunts with his pride. employing multiple skill sets/investment funds available to him as a team to accomplish the goal, which is to eat. see his obvious disdain for the alpo meal deal. yep, lion.

mouse is you, always after that little nugget of cheese, quiet and secret and sneak, but squeal and scramble at the first hint of a trap. most times the trap smells so inevitable you hardly venture out of the hole. uh huh, mouse.

jth is like lion except for the whole alpha thing. rest assured he is in the forest and aware and distributing the pack for advantage. and if he spots the kill will leap off that cliff and tear it limb from limb. tooth and nail, baby. rocks and sticks. good luck challenging his experience and technical superiority, totally wolf.

me? just a babe in the woods. some gross pig, or an ass with a kick. but pigs and asses have a shot at eating too.

so short-term the mouse has lost less than the rest, with damage distributed predictably along the risk chain. midterm? who knows, that win will go to the quick. long term? who knows again, that win belongs to all of us, as long we can eat, just variation in preferred menus is all.

feds have access to free eap (employee assistance plan) counselors if that is too much to digest.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: From the Clotheshores...

oh, i almost forgot about the joke part.

An elephant was walking through the jungle. He stepped on a thorn and started to cry. "OW, OW! This hurts! Somebody help me!" Just then, a little mouse passed by.
"Oh, please, little mouse!" the elephant pleaded. "Please take this thorn out of my foot! It really hurts!"
"No Way!!" cried the mouse. "I know you! You stepped on my brother last week!"
"I'm sorry about that! Just, please! Help me! I'll do anything!" cried the elephant.
"Anything?" replied the mouse skeptically.
"Yes! I promise!" swore the elephant.
"Well, okay!" said the mouse.
So the mouse pulled the thorn out of the elephant's foot, causing instant relief.
"Thank you little mouse!" said the elephant. "What can I do to repay you?"
The mouse smiled and said, "Now, you have to let me have my way with you."
The elephant was horrified. But, he did promise the mouse he'd do anything, so he reluctantly obliged.
So the mouse climbed on top of the elephant and started f***ing him as fast as his little mouse body could.
Just then, some monkeys were sitting in a tree, watching, disgusted at this mouse f***ing an elephant. So they started throwing coconuts at the elephant's head.
"Ow!" cried the elephant as the coconuts bashed his tender skull. "That hurts! Stop it!"
The mouse kept going and said, "Yeah! Take it all, b**ch! Take it all!"

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: From the Clotheshores...

The lion saw the elephant was distracted and went for the kill and was just enjoying a nice meal when the wolf came by and fought the lion for the huge meal. During the stuggle the mouse and his entire family were crushed. The monkeys ate bananas and enjoyed the show!

I'm a monkey!

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: From the Clotheshores...

and...btw...your thread has taken a very strange turn!