bmneveu's Account Talk

[bmneveu]

Volatility is so high now, one of these days we are going to have a huge up day. It would be nice to capture that with a quick IFT, but betting on a dead cat bounce is a dangerous game. For now I'm still on the sidelines, but getting itchy.

 

[bmneveu]

Fear/Greed Indicator is in extreme fear territory. Markets are quite oversold. Buying opportunity, went 100% C Fund.

 

[Bullitt]

I'm assuming this is in the hopes of a quick bear rally before transactions are suspended?

 

[bmneveu]

[FONT=&quot]$TRIP[/FONT][FONT=&quot] chart looking bullish for a reversal to the upside. Targeting a gap in the $33-34 range. [/FONT]https://www.tradingview.com/x/K355BrV1/

 

[bmneveu]

2023 was wild. Completed my first WESTPAC deployment. TSP hit 6 digits for the first time. Back in Hawaii now and it's been tough to be as involved in the market out here due to the time difference. But I've let my accounts ride the S&P 500 and it was a pretty great year for that. I'm starting to get the itch to look at some charts again. Not sure I even remember how though!

 

[tsptalk]

Welcome back, Brad!

I hate the Pacific time zone. Can't imagine dealing with Hawaii and the market.

 

[bmneveu]

Fear/Greed Indicator is in extreme fear territory. Markets are quite oversold. Buying opportunity, went 100% C Fund.

I haven't used an IFT since this transaction on 5/19/2022. It's been a good run. I've noticed the S Fund outperforming the C Fund lately and I can only deduce that it is politically driven. I think the market is pricing in a republican win that would be good for stocks, so investors are moving to the more volatile but potentially more profitable small caps. I think I agree and am strongly considering my first move in 2+ years. Will update if I do.

 

[bmneveu]

Still holding strong in the C fund. 26% last year and 28% this year is pretty nuts. This buy and hold thing has been working out. And its easy too! That said, I still have a separate small trading account to scratch that itch of timing the market.

Got orders to PCS to Maryland in June/July next year. Will be nice to be back on the east coast where the market hours are actually when the sun is up!

 

[bmneveu]

26% last year and 28% this year is pretty nuts.

I put a sell order in yesterday from my big taxable account. Taking some profits to enjoy with the family. That account is fully invested in a tech fund that has been going bananas, so gonna put some of that money to use around our new house. It's only like 6% of the total balance of that account, nothing crazy. Gotta remind myself every now and then that we make money to enjoy it. We are still getting settled into Maryland. Lots of projects around the house to do. Still have lots to explore, food to try, sights to see, etc.

I'm still 100% C fund in TSP, 100% into a QQQ-like tech fund with my big account, and then my small trading fun account is in cash right now until I pay attention and pull the trigger on a swing trade of some sort.

 

[tsptalk]

Good stuff! Nice to see you again!

 

[bmneveu]

We are planning to sell our home in 3-6 months when we PCS. It has appreciated substantially during this 4-year tour in Tampa. Now to figure out what to do with the profits of the sale while we rent in Hawaii for the next 3+ years. We have no debt and our savings are good. Best thing I can think of is to put it in an index fund and let it ride until we are ready to buy our next home, which could be anywhere between 3 and 10 years from now. Would potentially double in that timeframe and be enough for us to buy our "forever" home in cash.

We ended up selling that house around May 2022 for a ~300K profit (and we only put 15K down when we bought it, so 15K turned into 300K over 4 years). We invested that profit into the VOO index, which is a low-expense S&P 500 ETF. That did super well over the 3 years we were stationed in Hawaii. That account ramped up to 650K by April 2025 (not all from the house profits, but majority), so we decided to liquidate it and buy our home in Maryland with cash because interest rates are so high. Now we are living mortgage free

 

[bmneveu]

Really want to put a piece into the I-Fund to get some of that great return, but not sure if I'm late to the party there. Does anyone have thoughts on if whatever is pushing the I-Fund up will continue?

 

[tsptalk]

If the dollar is falling, the I-fund tends to outperform. If the 200-day MA (Red) holds, the I-fund may continue to roll. If the recent trend higher resumes, it may underperform.

 

[bmneveu]

Bought SQQQ to short tech as a short term trade. Looks a little toppy here, and the gap up on QQQ today was on low volume. I think we come back down to fill that gap next week, but I am ultimately long term bullish so I don't want to hold this position for too long.

 

[bmneveu]

Ended up going with INTC, AAPL, and DTV.

Futures look good for today. Let's see some gains!

I would have made 2,547% on that AAPL position since June 7th 2011, but of course I didn't hold it that long. I've probably bought and sold Apple half a dozen times since then. The INTC and DTV positions would have brought that overall gain down though, as they didn't do much.

 

[bmneveu]

Weight loss drug popularity is exploding. $LLY is at the forefront. They just blew revenue and earnings estimates out of the water. Weight loss pharmaceuticals should be a good wave to ride in the stock market for the next few years.

 

[bmneveu]

Small caps $IWM are outperforming large caps $SPY and tech $QQQ on a red day. Usually smaller companies fall harder than bigger ones. Interesting divergence here. Are we seeing some money move into more risky positions, or do investors just think large caps are overbought?

 

[tsptalk]

I think Microsoft and Meta are being a big drag on the large cap S&P and Nasdaq indices. The Equal Weighted S&P is actually up this morning.

 

[nasa1974]

Weight loss drug popularity is exploding. $LLY is at the forefront. They just blew revenue and earnings estimates out of the water. Weight loss pharmaceuticals should be a good wave to ride in the stock market for the next few years.

Might be good for investing but I heard that demand is up for the product, but supply is low and it's hurting those folks with diabetes more because of the demand for weight loss use.

 

[bmneveu]

Might be good for investing but I heard that demand is up for the product, but supply is low and it's hurting those folks with diabetes more because of the demand for weight loss use.

Counterpoint, maybe weight loss / appetite suppressant will lower the # of people with diabetes in the future. Either way, hopefully the demand signal is strong enough that these companies pump up their production quickly.