bmneveu's Account Talk

[Epic]

 

[bmneveu]

100% G COB today. Too much risk out there right now for me. Also looks like a short-medium term double top on the S&P 500 daily.

That double top on the S&P 500 chart suggests a 4310 target. With everything going on, I could see us easily dropping to that or even past it. I am staying out for now.

 

[bmneveu]

The C fund (large cap, more conservative stocks) outperformed the S fund (small cap, higher risk/reward) by nearly 9% over the last 2 months of 2021. That is a massive shift. It was the first time all year (and potentially longer, haven't looked further) that the C fund significantly* (more than ~1.2%) outperformed the S fund 2 months in a row.

Hindsight is 20/20 but we can see now that it was trying to tell us that something bad, or at least uncertainty, was probably coming.

 

[bmneveu]

Thoughts for this coming short week... I think we see stocks down, oil up, gold up, volatility up, and not sure on crypto.

I am in 100% G fund and long the VIX. I'd like to see the S&P 500 bounced off of 4310 or 4290 and head back up from there. If we see that area act as strong support, I'll will probably end my VIX position there and look to get my TSP back in.

 

[bmneveu]

I'd like to see the S&P 500 bounced off of 4310 or 4290 and head back up from there.

Sitting near that 4290 support right now. Just in time for the president's speech that will either bounce us back up, or cut through the floor. We are hanging on his words right now.

 

[bmneveu]

Sitting near that 4290 support right now. Just in time for the president's speech that will either bounce us back up, or cut through the floor. We are hanging on his words right now.

wow nevermind, that was quick, there she goes....

 

[bmneveu]

Thoughts for this coming short week... I think we see stocks down, oil up, gold up, volatility up, and not sure on crypto.

I am in 100% G fund and long the VIX. I'd like to see the S&P 500 bounced off of 4310 or 4290 and head back up from there. If we see that area act as strong support, I'll will probably end my VIX position there and look to get my TSP back in.

Closed my VIX long for a nice gain. Unfortunately I used VXX as the vehicle, which has a pretty heavy decay, so that ate into profits. Still a nice trade though.

I am waiting for some kind of hint of positivity in the charts and/or Europe before moving my TSP money back in.

 

[bmneveu]

Let's all be glad we aren't invested in Russia's main stock index MOEX, which closed -33% today and was down as much as -45% at one point.

 

[bmneveu]

Let's all be glad we aren't invested in Russia's main stock index MOEX, which closed -33% today and was down as much as -45% at one point.

That said, shorting their market or currency would have made a ton of money over the last couple days.

 

[Epic]

I just saw this too (YIKES) >>> https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/russia-hikes-key-rate-to-20-tells-companies-to-sell-fx

Russia hikes key rate to 20%, tells companies to sell FX

 

[bmneveu]

For what it's worth, the #1 account on the AutoTracker (cawwilson) just went all in 100% S Fund COB this past Friday 11 March.

 

[Whipsaw]

Interesting, folks are estimating a bottom, jumping in... I'm considering a stop loss move out... :suspicious:

 

[retread]

Some web sites I watch pointing out positive divergences setting up. MACD and RSI rising while stocks are falling. Personally I don't think we've seen a real scare yet to make a bottom. Keep waiting for those 5+% down days like we had during March 2020. Or could also be a slow bleed out over the next 6 months too. Not much hope.

 

[bmneveu]

For what it's worth, the #1 account on the AutoTracker (cawwilson) just went all in 100% S Fund COB this past Friday 11 March.

This guy almost perfectly timed the bottom and is now out again to the G fund. Congrats on a great move CAWWILSON.

 

[Whipsaw]

We'll have to keep an eye on this guy... :cheesy:

 

[bmneveu]

The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both bounced off key fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting the floor may be in. I will post the charts and a video later this evening.

 

[bmneveu]

The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both bounced off key fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting the floor may be in. I will post the charts and a video later this evening.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/IWM/tz0DMyIF-Perfect-Retracement-for-Small-Cap-Index/

 

[rangerray]

I liked the video and am very interested in learning more about using the fib tool. Thanks for the lesson!

 

[bmneveu]

The aggregate bonds AGG ETF (F Fund) completed a head and shoulders pattern, and reached the price target based on the pattern. This is something I've been tracking but never made a trade on. This is neither bullish or bearish for the fund or bonds going forward. It just means the pattern is now complete, with no forward projection remaining based on that specific pattern.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lYjvtVEI/

 

[bmneveu]

Large caps look like the place to be during the higher interest rate environment.

The theory is that small caps (and even larger but unprofitable companies) rely more on debt to finance operations/growth, and the interest on that debt is getting more expensive by the day.