bmneveu's Account Talk

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New lower low on the Russell, and very close to a lower low on the S&P 500. It's not lookin good out there. On one hand I want to keep buying weakness. On the other, falling off a cliff like this looks like the start of another crash. I know if I hold through I'll be fine on the other end eventually. I would keep buying the dip if I didn't already do that over the last few days! Need to wait for more fresh powder now, as BirchTree liked to say.
 
The Fed talking about trimming asset purchases soon is making me consider doing the same. I've been saying Don't Fight The Fed for a long time now, so according to that theory, I should cut back when they cut back. We'll see. The market hasn't tanked yet on those words, which kind of surprises me. Maybe it will when they actually announce some concrete numbers / timeline.
 
It's the fed selling back the treasuries they bought from everyone during the pandemic. The theory is that if a bank's "cash" can be replaced with treasuries again, they're draining liquidity from the system. However, that money the bank received after selling their bonds to the fed in the pandemic is probably invested somewhere else (loans) and not just sitting in cash. So whoever is buying up those bonds from the fed repo has to sell something to free up the cash to buy.

If you look back on the SPX chart, there was a notable correction in February 2016 when the fed hit a previous record in their repurchases. There was actual talk of rising rates at the time too, and those did begin to step up in November 2016.

Basically, it's a tough way to time the market and might be more useful in hindsight, but the chart will show exactly how much money is being "drained" from the system by federal reserve operations. Looks like they did around $10B today.
 
I'm looking at the dates of big reverse repos and comparing to the stock market. I don't see much of a correlation at all. That doesn't mean anything for the long term though, just that it doesn't seem to affect the market the day of or even week of. It could build up over time and have a big effect eventually though.
 
Bought SNAP for a short - medium term trade. I see a breakout of a consolidation period, targeting $80 within a few weeks.
 
even though it doesn't affect prices of stocks day to day or week to week - doesn't it show a general weakens or strength of the market and the direction it is likely to head?
 
Bought some Zillow, and hopefully our TSP contributions for October landed today on the dip. That would be nice.
 
bmneveu said:
hopefully our TSP contributions for October landed today on the dip. That would be nice.
Click to expand...

What do you mean by this? Doesn't everyone's biweekly TSP contributions and gov't match land in the TSP account on the Tuesday following the EFT pay day? Which would be tomorrow? Or does it vary? Or are some folks paid monthly?
 
flalaw97 said:
What do you mean by this? Doesn't everyone's biweekly TSP contributions and gov't match land in the TSP account on the Tuesday following the EFT pay day? Which would be tomorrow? Or does it vary? Or are some folks paid monthly?
Click to expand...

Nope...

When I worked for the USMC I was paid on Fridays - TSP contributions occurred on that Thursday (the day before).
Now I work for the Army National Guard and I am paid on Thursdays - and my TSP contributions occur on that Monday.

Weird, but whatever.
 
I am an active duty service member, so I guess it's different depending on employment type. My TSP contributions go in once a month, near the beginning. Its very rarely on the 1st though. Always seems to be the 2nd or 3rd, sometimes the 4th if a weekend is in there, which was the case this time.
 
Large caps outperforming small caps again today. Already missed the deadline today but heavily considering switching from 100S to 100C tomorrow.
 
Got orders to Hawaii. Pretty excited about that. We were there from '15-'18 and loved it. We fly out in June, should be there for 3 years. Tampa was great but we are ready to keep it movin'. Gonna sell the house here and cash in on this crazy high housing market. Will probably invest most of those profits... Trading the markets in Hawaii can be tough because of the time zone. Markets open at 3:30 AM if I remember right, IFTs gotta be in before 6 AM... it's wild. I will say though, I did like waking up with a cup of coffee on sunday and having a live football game to watch first thing in the morning. That was pretty neat. Maybe I'll trade crypto more out there as those markets are 24/7.
 
congrats on the move. I was there for three years as well, loved it the first year - not so much after, but only because I like to travel more than you're able to there. expensive but still a good place to be stationed.
 
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