♟ Weekly Recap
● WTD Overview: Risk-off: SPX −2.43% WTD; breadth narrowed as TRAN −4.88%, VXF −3.41%, and ACWX −3.31% lagged.
Defensives drew bids: XLU +1.45%, XLP +0.09%; cyclicals sold as DXY +1.17%, gold firmed, and VIX stayed elevated.
• • Key Takeaway: A cooler DXY and calmer VIX, plus stable long-end yields, would widen breadth and lift bounce odds.
● Fund Inflows — Wednesday Series (ici.org)
• Equity (mutual funds): Near 4-wk median — −$20.31B (week ended Oct 01, 2025).
• Bonds (mutual funds): Near 4-wk median — +$6.04B total; +$5.51B taxable; +$0.53B muni (week ended Oct 01, 2025).
• ETFs (net issuance): Strength — +$39.89B (week ended Oct 01, 2025).
• Combined (MF + ETF): Net inflows — +$19.58B (week ended Oct 01, 2025).
• Money Market Funds: Up w/w — +$19.84B to $7.39T (week ended Oct 08, 2025).
• • Key Takeaway: Equity MFs saw outflows; bond MFs modest inflows; ETF issuance was strong; cash balances rose.
• • •Compared to last week: Equity MF tone stayed weak; bond MF inflows eased; ETF inflows were firm; cash inflows continued.
♔ Equities
● WTD Overview: Risk-off week: SPX −2.43%; NDX −2.27%; transports −4.88%; small caps −3.41%; global ex-US −3.31%.
• • Key Takeaway: A calmer VIX and softer dollar would raise odds of a tradable bounce.
● Leaders & Relative Holds
• Risk Tone: Risk-off. Defensives worked: utilities and staples cushioned; cyclicals trailed.
• Breadth: Participation narrowed; cyclicals and small caps bore the brunt.
♛ Barometer
● WTD Overview: Duration rallied: IEF +0.53%, TLT +1.39%. Gold firmed; DXY +1.17%; copper and crypto slumped; VIX stayed high.
• • Key Takeaway: Rates stabilizing and a cooler dollar are needed for a cleaner risk-on read.
● Hedges & Risk Tone
• Risk Tone: Risk-off. Curve bid at the long end; gold outpaced industrials; inflation breakevens eased; strong USD weighed on global risk.
• Breadth: Safety trades broad; cyclic proxies weak; participation tilt: defense.
♖ Sectors & Rotation
● Weekly Sector Overview: Defensives led; leadership narrow.
• Key Takeaway: Until yields and the dollar relax, expect rallies to fade and leadership to stay tight.
● Offensive Assets (Risk-On)
• Top WTD gainers: XLU +1.45%, XLP +0.09% — yield bid and safety demand.
• Cyclicals > SPX: no; participation narrowed.
● Defensive Assets (Risk-Off)
• Standout hedge/defense: XLU +1.45% — long-end rally helped utilities.
• Safety tone or drag: XLE −4.15% and XLY −3.83% capped risk appetite.
● 4-6 Week Rotation Cycle: Early ⟳ Mid ⟳ Late ⟳ Contraction
• Primary: Contraction — defensives led; trend mixed; breadth late tilt.
• Alternate: Late — leadership narrow; trend weakening; breadth late tilt.
• • Confidence: High — Timeframe, Trend, and Breadth lenses all Neutral.
• • • 58% — Down: Defensive leadership persists; rallies likely fade into supply.
• • • 30% — Up: A softer dollar and steadier rates lift growth and cyclicals.
• • • 12% — Sideways: Range trade with rotation inside large caps.
♗ S&P 500’s Weighted Top-10
● Overview: Broadly weak with pockets of resilience. None were green; dispersion moderate.
• • Key Takeaway: Concentration softened a bit as MSFT and META held up better than high-beta peers.
● Leaders & Relative Holds
• Least-negative: META −0.74%, MSFT −0.93% — quality and cash flow favored.
• Secondary: AMZN −1.43% and BRK.B −1.93% showed relative resilience.
● Defensive or Laggards
• Biggest decliners: AAPL −4.94%, AVGO −4.06%, TSLA −3.80%.
• Semis and autos faded; search twins tracked the tape; breadth at the top narrowed.
♘ S&P 500’s Tier-Weighted: YTD Rank & Weight Changes
● Overview: More promotions into the Mid-90 from semis, connectors, and security; several demotions toward the Bottom-403 from energy, health, and media.
• Key Takeaway: Participation narrowed but churn rose: quality growth advanced inside the Mid-90 while weaker cyclicals slipped.
• Breadth/outperformance: Participation narrowed.
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
● WTD Overview: Risk-off: SPX −2.43% WTD; breadth narrowed as TRAN −4.88%, VXF −3.41%, and ACWX −3.31% lagged.
Defensives drew bids: XLU +1.45%, XLP +0.09%; cyclicals sold as DXY +1.17%, gold firmed, and VIX stayed elevated.
• • Key Takeaway: A cooler DXY and calmer VIX, plus stable long-end yields, would widen breadth and lift bounce odds.
● Fund Inflows — Wednesday Series (ici.org)
• Equity (mutual funds): Near 4-wk median — −$20.31B (week ended Oct 01, 2025).
• Bonds (mutual funds): Near 4-wk median — +$6.04B total; +$5.51B taxable; +$0.53B muni (week ended Oct 01, 2025).
• ETFs (net issuance): Strength — +$39.89B (week ended Oct 01, 2025).
• Combined (MF + ETF): Net inflows — +$19.58B (week ended Oct 01, 2025).
• Money Market Funds: Up w/w — +$19.84B to $7.39T (week ended Oct 08, 2025).
• • Key Takeaway: Equity MFs saw outflows; bond MFs modest inflows; ETF issuance was strong; cash balances rose.
• • •Compared to last week: Equity MF tone stayed weak; bond MF inflows eased; ETF inflows were firm; cash inflows continued.
♔ Equities
● WTD Overview: Risk-off week: SPX −2.43%; NDX −2.27%; transports −4.88%; small caps −3.41%; global ex-US −3.31%.
• • Key Takeaway: A calmer VIX and softer dollar would raise odds of a tradable bounce.
● Leaders & Relative Holds
• Risk Tone: Risk-off. Defensives worked: utilities and staples cushioned; cyclicals trailed.
• Breadth: Participation narrowed; cyclicals and small caps bore the brunt.
♛ Barometer
● WTD Overview: Duration rallied: IEF +0.53%, TLT +1.39%. Gold firmed; DXY +1.17%; copper and crypto slumped; VIX stayed high.
• • Key Takeaway: Rates stabilizing and a cooler dollar are needed for a cleaner risk-on read.
● Hedges & Risk Tone
• Risk Tone: Risk-off. Curve bid at the long end; gold outpaced industrials; inflation breakevens eased; strong USD weighed on global risk.
• Breadth: Safety trades broad; cyclic proxies weak; participation tilt: defense.
♖ Sectors & Rotation
● Weekly Sector Overview: Defensives led; leadership narrow.
• Key Takeaway: Until yields and the dollar relax, expect rallies to fade and leadership to stay tight.
● Offensive Assets (Risk-On)
• Top WTD gainers: XLU +1.45%, XLP +0.09% — yield bid and safety demand.
• Cyclicals > SPX: no; participation narrowed.
● Defensive Assets (Risk-Off)
• Standout hedge/defense: XLU +1.45% — long-end rally helped utilities.
• Safety tone or drag: XLE −4.15% and XLY −3.83% capped risk appetite.
● 4-6 Week Rotation Cycle: Early ⟳ Mid ⟳ Late ⟳ Contraction
• Primary: Contraction — defensives led; trend mixed; breadth late tilt.
• Alternate: Late — leadership narrow; trend weakening; breadth late tilt.
• • Confidence: High — Timeframe, Trend, and Breadth lenses all Neutral.
• • • 58% — Down: Defensive leadership persists; rallies likely fade into supply.
• • • 30% — Up: A softer dollar and steadier rates lift growth and cyclicals.
• • • 12% — Sideways: Range trade with rotation inside large caps.
♗ S&P 500’s Weighted Top-10
● Overview: Broadly weak with pockets of resilience. None were green; dispersion moderate.
• • Key Takeaway: Concentration softened a bit as MSFT and META held up better than high-beta peers.
● Leaders & Relative Holds
• Least-negative: META −0.74%, MSFT −0.93% — quality and cash flow favored.
• Secondary: AMZN −1.43% and BRK.B −1.93% showed relative resilience.
● Defensive or Laggards
• Biggest decliners: AAPL −4.94%, AVGO −4.06%, TSLA −3.80%.
• Semis and autos faded; search twins tracked the tape; breadth at the top narrowed.
♘ S&P 500’s Tier-Weighted: YTD Rank & Weight Changes
● Overview: More promotions into the Mid-90 from semis, connectors, and security; several demotions toward the Bottom-403 from energy, health, and media.
• Key Takeaway: Participation narrowed but churn rose: quality growth advanced inside the Mid-90 while weaker cyclicals slipped.
• Breadth/outperformance: Participation narrowed.
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
