05/15/13
Stocks are now putting it into another gear as the Dow gained 123-points just when we thought resistance might pose a problem. We saw 1% gains in most of the broader indices.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The dollar made a new 9-month high yesterday putting some pressure on the I-fund as it did not get the gains the U.S. stock funds did.
A highly respected hedge-fund manager, David Tepper, gave his blessing to the rally yesterday on CNBC, and it seemed to get those on the sidelines scrambling into the market so as to not miss out.
The S&P 500 took care of that overhead resistance yesterday, as it it wasn't even there. It's rare to see an upside breakout from a rising wedge so it remains to be seen if this was the real deal or just a fake-out.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
DecisionPoint.com is using the "P" word - parabolic. Parabolic moves are rallies that defy gravity as investors jump in out of fear of missing out.
Huge gains can be had as the move is faster and stronger than would seem reasonable, but parabolic moves can end with a thud. The key, if you're lucky, is to catch enough of it without being caught in the reality check correction.
The Nasdaq's current angle of incline is even steeper than the early 2013 gains, which in itself was quite impressive.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
After lagging for a few weeks, the small caps have stepped it up again. This chart of the Russell 2000 ETF is also at an angle of incline that seems dangerously steep.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The sentimeTrader.com Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence indicator shows the smart money down to a 29 reading. We saw that a couple of times in 2012 and also back in early 2011.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
With the Dumb Money Confidence up near 63, the 33-point spread between them is also at a rare level. Both can be a precursor to a pullback, but not always right away.
Bonds continued their decline as investors are opting for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We may not see a rally here in vonds until stocks start to pull back, although the 7-10 year Bond Fund ETF is looking for support at the 200-day EMA, so perhaps that might happen some time this week.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks are now putting it into another gear as the Dow gained 123-points just when we thought resistance might pose a problem. We saw 1% gains in most of the broader indices.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The dollar made a new 9-month high yesterday putting some pressure on the I-fund as it did not get the gains the U.S. stock funds did.
A highly respected hedge-fund manager, David Tepper, gave his blessing to the rally yesterday on CNBC, and it seemed to get those on the sidelines scrambling into the market so as to not miss out.
The S&P 500 took care of that overhead resistance yesterday, as it it wasn't even there. It's rare to see an upside breakout from a rising wedge so it remains to be seen if this was the real deal or just a fake-out.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
DecisionPoint.com is using the "P" word - parabolic. Parabolic moves are rallies that defy gravity as investors jump in out of fear of missing out.
Huge gains can be had as the move is faster and stronger than would seem reasonable, but parabolic moves can end with a thud. The key, if you're lucky, is to catch enough of it without being caught in the reality check correction.
The Nasdaq's current angle of incline is even steeper than the early 2013 gains, which in itself was quite impressive.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
After lagging for a few weeks, the small caps have stepped it up again. This chart of the Russell 2000 ETF is also at an angle of incline that seems dangerously steep.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The sentimeTrader.com Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence indicator shows the smart money down to a 29 reading. We saw that a couple of times in 2012 and also back in early 2011.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
With the Dumb Money Confidence up near 63, the 33-point spread between them is also at a rare level. Both can be a precursor to a pullback, but not always right away.
Bonds continued their decline as investors are opting for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We may not see a rally here in vonds until stocks start to pull back, although the 7-10 year Bond Fund ETF is looking for support at the 200-day EMA, so perhaps that might happen some time this week.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
