Birchtree's Account Talk

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

OK, lets not snipe each other there are big problem in the world. Let's help each other out.

Yes, couldn't have said it better Show-me!!

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

2000 shares of CALP at 53 tells me all I need to know - it's a confirmation. He has remained reserved but when I stepped on the hot button he couldn't help himself - it was a set up. The life story comes next - have fun.

I've been investing since the 60's starting with the templeton fund and have not stopped since. Also being in the business has helped as well. My last multi-bagger was Akamai - does that count at all? :nuts:

Just had second hip replacement (Cleveland Clinic - great place) so there goes the golf but now I can spend more time watching over the investments and breeding and showing my chowchows.

"It's not about the money or percentages but the feeling when you win."

Good info on this board so let's all be nice.

white

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

OK, lets not snipe each other there are big problem in the world. Let's help each other out.

View attachment 1592

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've got a lot of money also, but I had a large inheritance when my father passed away. Some call me lucky for the money, but I'd obviously rather have my father alive. But I'm doing my best to be a good steward of what he left me. Honestly, I'll never be able to spend it all before I die since I'm so used to frugal living.

<<coughs>> need a 47 year old son???

 

[12%ayear]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been investing since the 60's starting with the templeton fund and have not stopped since. Also being in the business has helped as well. My last multi-bagger was Akamai - does that count at all? :nuts:

Just had second hip replacement (Cleveland Clinic - great place) so there goes the golf but now I can spend more time watching over the investments and breeding and showing my chowchows.

"It's not about the money or percentages but the feeling when you win."

Good info on this board so let's all be nice.

white

Akamai ..great company,they are in Cambridge,Ma. The stock was left for dead under a buck and exploded over 50. WTG on that!!!

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's what I'm talk'n about! Thanks for the input wht00ss we need you experienced guys to share with us inexperience guys. Thank you.

<<cough>> Take'n bids for a 38 year old son with high miles. LOL :nuts:

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everyone likes to win and when you win big it is very hard, some times, to be as humble as you like. Just keep telling us ALL how you are doing it. Thank you!!!

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm younger! You need a 30 year old son?? :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The markets job is to keep folks from fully participating in what has become the greatest overall general advancing price sequence ever seen. With a 54% level of bears, it's working. Bull markets take more patience but the reward is plentiful. On a 29 point Dow the oceanic pulled in $15K yesterday - hope to do the same today. Money is now betting that it's time for the weighted SPX to play catch up. Internals of the SPX are saying new all-time highs are a given now. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The price action is finding little in the way of sellers over the last month, and during this time we've been able to purge much of the overbought extremes on an intraday basis during this same time, because of this, the move higher could be rather astounding. This would fit very well with the continued 3rd wave advance. Now that we are in Primary degree keep in mind if we see an aggressive advance from this current juncture what it will mean to the longer term price patterns. No G for me - be right and sit tight. This is a ride of a life time. I'm not going to get all beared up until I see at least one top below one top on the NYAD and the NYUD. The Ducati is greased and fueled just in case we have to ride another cycle - but with the high levels on the MCSUM there won't be much price decay - we'll see at any rate soon.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm not going to get all beared up until I see at least one top below one top on the NYAD and the NYUD

Would you please give us all notice of this before noon the day we need to make a move?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No one will believe it when it comes - but I'll make a point to make some tendentious noise. The Dow breadth MCSUM has gone to a new 52 week highs, this now confirms the 14,300 price objective I posted last month and now also opens the door for a 15,600 Dow in the next couple of months - probably by the end of the summer. As a reminder, during the high degree third wave structure such as this one we will see the best in volume and breadth statistics (plurality) the closer we get to the epicenter of this same price structure. We are still in the beginning stages of an accelerated parabolic move to the upside - look at the angle of ascent of the price pattern - sure feels like a melt up to me. Why would anyone want to be in the G fund is beyond my comprehension. Unless fear is easier to act on than confidence. And look at that stupid VIX creep up - remember the VIX rose during the market advance of 1996 to 1998.

 

[qibovin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No one will believe it when it comes - but I'll make a point to make some tendentious noise. The Dow breadth MCSUM has gone to a new 52 week highs, this now confirms the 14,300 price objective I posted last month and now also opens the door for a 15,600 Dow in the next couple of months - probably by the end of the summer. As a reminder, during the high degree third wave structure such as this one we will see the best in volume and breadth statistics (plurality) the closer we get to the epicenter of this same price structure. We are still in the beginning stages of an accelerated parabolic move to the upside - look at the angle of ascent of the price pattern - sure feels like a melt up to me. Why would anyone want to be in the G fund is beyond my comprehension. Unless fear is easier to act on than confidence. And look at that stupid VIX creep up - remember the VIX rose during the market advance of 1996 to 1998.

Hey, I'm in the G...oh.
Well, I'm just in it for the money (penny). Looking to get out and stay out, but not getting a warm fuzzy. (Is "warm fuzzy" somewhere on the euphoria-fear cycle Tom always talks about?) Anyway, I see from where you're coming, and I want to agree with you, but then am I "capitulating"?

Anyway, I don't know alot about Eliot wave theory, but I would like to learn. Who knows, you could have a convert. Is there a concise "Eliot-wave-theory-for Dummies" post on this site (or elsewhere) for the financially illiterate? Also, have you posted a graph of where you think the various wave part/sub-parts are along the S&P--or would you please. If there's a parabolic growth spurt coming, I don't want to miss it. I've got 4 parabolic growth spurts at home and another on the way, so I can't afford to be in the G. TIA.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll probably come across something over the weekend - Elliott is going to start to get more attention. Shorts, at all time highs means people are still picking tops. The SPX could, and should, double from here. And when it does I'm toast. It does look like we are about to move into a higher and more aggressive gear to the upside and the G funders will get neck strain. Tom was mentioning the increase in bearish sentiment to 54% without any price decay - this is classic third wave action. Bearish sentiment should climb as we continue to rally and this will then abruptly shift in the opposite direction - this is the backbone of what causes the epicenter of 3rd waves. Once this point of recognition is realized and capitulation takes place we will have astounding price movement. For example on 3/16/00 the SPX went up 70 points to an intraday high of 1555. Whew!!! We are overextended but we are overextended in Primary 3 which means we can remain so for a long time. Snort.

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Bearish sentiment should climb as we continue to rally and this will then abruptly shift in the opposite direction - this is the backbone of what causes the epicenter of 3rd waves. Once this point of recognition is realized and capitulation takes place we will have astounding price movement." -Birchtree


In a nutshell you are saying is A LOT OF PEOPLE will want to get in at ANY PRICE.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, you're getting alot of attention. Should this be a contrarian indicator?

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The worst thing that can happen to a contrarian is mainstream acceptence.
It's a fate worse then death.:laugh:

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The worst thing that can happen to a contrarian is mainstream acceptence.
It's a fate worse then death.:laugh:

:laugh: C'mon everybody! Let's all accept the contrarian view! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Too many people continue to remember the cyclical bear of 2001-2002 and that provides angst. We are now in an area where there is no history - we are making it up as we move along because there is nothing for comparison analytics. The market will do what it wants to do when it wants to do it. The trend to me is certainly undeniable. Record short interest in the R2K signals further strength as they are forced to cover. The levels in the dollar are part of the inspiration we see in the stock and commodities buying spree we are seeing now. U.S. assets are cheap in the world of melting dollars. So instead of selling dollars the holders are now buying assets, stocks, real-estate, precious metals and commodities, you name it they are on a buying spree. Liquidity reigns and lower interest rates are imminent. Money must agree that something is undervalued in order for it to be drawn to it and our market is way behind the rest of the world - here they come my friends. Among the many signs of technical deterioration that I will be watching for, weakness in cumulative breadth gauges would be high on the list. I don't function on a day to day basis but prefer to step back and do it from a distance, which can be from a few months to a few years. To date, the daily A/D ratio for the S&P 500 has been in a strong uptrend and remains above a rising 20 day average and a rising 50 day average. Inorder to get more bearish on the stock market, I would need to see the 20 day average cross below the 50 day average which would tell me that the majority of stocks is no longer participating in the advance. Even then there will we a two year distributional top with plenty of volatility to continue to play. Bull markets take more patience but the reward is certainly plentiful. Now let me raise the temperature and tell the few that are lurking here that the oceanic account pulled down $41K in four days - Friday was a correction day for my account, but perhaps Monday we'll be back to accumulating more green.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That would be great Birch. I wish it would continue to rise until the end of the year, I'd join you in the "C" fund. I'm long term you know, until I die!!