Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've definitely got ants in my pants right now - thinking long term. After yesterday many index MCOs are now at multiyear highs. The SPX breadth MCO is now at the highest level over the last 52 weeks. This new high then in the SPX breadth MCO supports the idea that this continuing advance that started last summer will indeed move the price pattern to new all time highs.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tempest said:
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."

-Jesse Livermore
_______________________

http://www.jesse-livermore.com/

Fascinating
Click to expand...

Thanks for this site. Fascinating for sure to say the least.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The SPX breadth MCO went to a reading of +85 - this is now the highest reading seen on the MCO since 2004. The next highest peak was in March'03 at +118. The MCO measures the speed in which the 19 day and 39 day EMA's are either moving closer or away from each other. The MCSUM gives you a visual representation on the actual distance between these same two EMA's. IMHO the ability to step back and use the market to achieve one's goals, rather than trying to follow and beat the market's every move, is key to long-term success in investing.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe the Iranians took Royal Marines and Seals as captive. If I were a captor I'd want to protect my throat - because if these guys decide to make an escape it will be costly for the Iranians.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I thought following your advice was the key to long term investing. (?)

Dell
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dell,

No one is following my investment advice - I don't chase momentum unless it's to the downside. Glad to see you have resurfaced. I'm essentially all the way back from the wet well bottom so here we go again. Keep in mind for the future that the time to be on guard will be when the major market averages make new highs, but the A/D line begins to fall short. We've never had a bear market without the A/D line diverging first. Even if we topo out here on the NYAD you have to figure it's going to be another 2 years before we see an actual price top if history is used to forecast such ideas. On a ratio adjusted basis, we are in new all-time high territory as it applies to the A/D line of the NYSE group of stocks. Come back again, please - you know I'm a lonely contrarian. But I do love the wafting smell of superlative bull manure.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It is good to be back. I've been OCONUS for several weeks; ever since Grandma had her accident.

Looking forward to your posts though you know I will agree with some and disagree with others.

Is this a great country or what?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

And where is my Friend Grandma? Hey girl say something, we miss Ya!
NNUUT:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

With the DJUA at 499.56 it has another 25 points or so to go at least before it approaches its long term trend channel top. The last kiss was at 437.63 in October'06. I hope we take our time getting to the top so it takes over 100 points to kiss. The NYAD (Daily) Cumulative at 172898 is a new all-time high. To confirm an amazing sign of underlying internals strength, the RA-AD line remains above its 1959 former resistance line and is now at new all-time highs. We had our retest with a snapback and now since this resistance line covers a 48 year period we should be damn good to go. The NYSE stocks continue to remain in a historic longer term uptrend. Foolish is as foolish does. don't be fooled by the fools. It won't be long and we'll be looking for a reconfirmation of the Dow Theory Primary buy signal - and what's great is the real estate speculator is stuck and locked - they won't be here for at least 3 more years. Alright Birchtree you're starting to sound tendentious again - the little chickadees don't cotton to your noise. Just stay in those safe high branches of the G fund. The fractal gurus are saying another big drop this week is due, saying some sort of panic is knocking on Wall Street for this week. Safe to stay out of the water - not. Probably an hellatious buying panic would be my bet.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nice article, Birch. After reading that, I would think that people need to stop looking at last year's May to June drop as something to compare the more recent market to. Last June marked the beginning of a huge almost nonstop rally. The market took a deep breath on Feb 27. Then started running again on March 21. That could be it. No looking back now. Make sure your seatbelts are on securely.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't remember the exact significance of a double bottom in technical analysis; but as I recall a double bottom is a very powerful and bullish event. In prior posts and threads I have seen something written about double bottoms. Spaf, didn't you ask someone recently about a double bottom? I will appreciate input from you good people.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Double Bottom Transitions

Visually a double bottom looks like a "W" on the chart, so it's easy to see. However, a double bottom doesn't need to form a perfect "W" to be valid. In fact, it is prefered the right-hand trough to be a little lower than the left-hand trough. When a minor new low forms, it tends to shake out the weakest owners of the stocks and makes it much easier for bulls to drive the prices higher.

The trigger point occurs when the stock breaks above the mid-point peak between the troughs. This peak is sometimes called the pivot point. Ideally, higher than-average volume confirms the trigger.

Michael Griffis, Lita Epstein, Trading, 2004 Wiley.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

A few words from Henry To.
"Given that the stock market does not typically top out until four to six months after a peak in the NYSE A/D line (although there are exceptions, such as during June 1994 when the NYSE A/D line and the DJIA topped out at the same time), we are definitely still not close to the end of this cyclical bull market, just yet. The 20 DMA of the ISE Sentiment dropped to a recent reading of 98.5 (more put buying) representing the most oversold reading since a reading of 97.6 at the close on October 30, 2002."

As stated previously, the NYSE stocks continue to remain in a historic longer term uptrend.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just a question..but since after the double bottom, it did pass the pivot and is now going back down towards it...are we not going to have a triple bottom? Which has to be even more bullish, correct?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Longer term yes it's bullish. You just have to absorb the eventual pain dispensed getting there - as a buy and holder that is my burden. But I sure do enjoy the DCAing of contributions and dividend reinvestments. I just finished drilling down and doing my taxes - what a yearly chore. My problem is I made too much money last year.
 
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