Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With the 9 month low it's usual and customary to see the internals bottom about 4-6 weeks ahead of this same price bottom. Last weeks moves to the downside could be this internal low. I still think it has passed and the 9 month and 4 year are working in unisome to the upside. Zen says melt-up is imminent. I've got my parachute - bring on the melt up - and I'm partially prepared for the gains.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've got my parachute - bring on the melt up - and I'm partially prepared for the gains.

I hear ya. It's tough to be in a melt up with just a few shares. A huge gain on $1000 is nowhere near a huge gain on $1000000.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now I hear my Central Parking (CPC) is being bought out by KKR. It seems there are times I just can't catch a break. The problem here is that I don't own enough to make a difference - they're buying it before I'm finished accumulating my position. Stop the merry-go-round, I want to get off.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE breadth MCSUM is at +915, the NYSE volume breadth is at +780, the MID breadth MCSUM is at +886. The all-time high on the MID MCSUM was in 2003 at +1200. This happens to be the demarcation point between knowing whether or not this ia a wave 3 of Primary degree. Also at all-time highs in the ratio-adjusted NYAD. The nice thing about all these MCSUM highs is that the market can basically absorb any event or news item that is sent its' way.

I made $12K yesterday but probably gave half of that back in the latest 48 point consolidation. The 9 month low is due in around March 12 if we haven't seen it already. I need a serious break-away gap on the SPX that refuses to be filled. I also need to see a breadth and volume plurality that expands exponentially and confirms that this is in fact a true Primary 3 advance. Can you blame me.

 

[ChemEng]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I made $12K yesterday.

How did you make money yesterday when C fund dropped 2 cents?

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

He has $1,500,000 in other stock assets beyond his $500,000 TSP account.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's great to have!

He has $1,500,000 in other stock assets beyond his $500,000 TSP account.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Not quite $1.5M yet but I'm working on that one. I thought I would at least break even yesterday but actually made $7K thanks to steel and farm equipment. That puts me at $38K for the month so far. My TSP tugboat is just drifting gently higher providing me ample opportunity to continue with my DCA program. I'll probably have to buy some more insurance in a few weeks. The last premium was paid at $15.41 which was way to low but nonetheless it is what it was designed for - insurance.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just realized that I may get acquainted with good buying prospects and I don't have any money to take opportunity. What to do. I know, don't look that gift horse in the mouth - I took some profit off the top of my AKS today as a comfort. Call it spill money if you must - but there will be wall flowers waiting to be purchased. Money is always a must when you invest.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm ready for my pummeling - gave up $2.6K yesterday which is very tolerable. We just might smoke this turkey this afternoon - be right and sit tight.

With the distant past as prologue, it came in like a lion and left like a whimp, how appropriate, the many tentacles of Medusa.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just sold my small position in CPC since it's being bought out. Also took some more profit off the top from GT and bought: CLK, CXG, CPO, DHT, DUK, EAS, FLO, FBN, IT. May be possed to do even more next week. These dips are for buying.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There have been 13 instances since 2003 when the S&P 500 had an 80% of stocks above the 20 and 200 day moving average. 10 of those instances occurred in the first leg of the 2003 run. Doesn't that mean we could easily have more occurrences like that in 2007? That's nice breadth plurality.

 

[The_Technician]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchy, aren't you looking at Fibronacci on certain items....can you look at oil and make an estimate on the future value of sweet crude on the next drop....if there is one.....am I seeing it around $40???

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The closing all-time high in the Wilshire 5000 indicates stocks could be entering a new leg of a bull market. The DJ Wilshire 5000 recently reached all-time intraday and closing hiughs, surpassing its 2000 peaks. From a technical viewpoint, the close above the trading high confirmed a full breakout. The new record high suggests that this bull market may not be old at all, instead, it may be at the beginning of a new upleg.
The major bear market before 2000-02 occurred in 1973-74. After lows set in 1974, the S&P 500 rallied 130% before a major correction took place in the early 1980's (1982). If the S&P 500 were to rally by 130% from the low of Oct.2002, it would reach 1770. That's 22 to 23% above current levels. Man I would turn into toast if that happens. I rode the 1982 bottom and ended up making $300,000 in ten months - hard telling where I'd go this time. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Finally the postman rings - what to do now. Absolutely nothing from my perspective. I'm up $36K for February and may give a good portion of that back today and maybe the rest tomorrow. I'm just satisfied with the zero line for February. I am anxious to do some select buying like I have during past downsides, so I have to decide who leaves the portfolio to generate cash. That decision will come over the weekend. Sock it to me - give me that desirable pain that leads to more profits. It's time to celebrate.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You MADE 300,000$ in 1982-83 and 25 years later you don't quite have 1.5 mil.....your right Birch, it definitely does take creativity.

You must have gotten dot-commed or Enronned along the way?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sugarbabe,

What you don't realize is that over an eighteen month period I gave half the $300,000 back. Loved those tax loss carry forwards. The problem now is that any profit I take costs in taxes. At any rate I believe I'll be comfortably above the $2M mark by the end of this year. Looking forward with envy to start trading the tugboat - especially if this type of volatility is to become standard practice. Wouldn't you like to hear about 1987? That was a classic.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What I and others dont realize.


Feel free to call me Sugarbear....or even Sugarbitch.....you know you want to.

Why are you waiting to trade the tug? Now is the time to....oh yeah never mind.......buy and hold WRAHHHH!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sugarbabe,

You know my age - I'm clueless about yours. But I do know Harvey will probably be stopping by looking for you know something salacious. Do you know how the hydroponics operation is progressing. I still miss Ayla.

 

[FundSurfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchy, is it time to put that 2% back to work? It's been on the sidelines