Birchtree's Account Talk

[dell]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What article are you plagiarizing?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just my historical memory buddy. Would you like me to start on the Dow Theory next? We got a long history there. I just recently posted a link on Dow Theory - must have been in the bullpen thread. Will you make money this year? Most of this stuff is located on the Decisionpoint link - great graphs and even a few new ones especially dealing with the commons only NYSE A/D line.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"During the strong market rally since July only 8 of the 30 stocks in the index have made new all-time highs with a 9th one coming extremely close. Two others peaked in 2004-2005. The 19 remaining stocks (63% of the index) peaked between 1998 and 2001. At yesterday's market close these 19 stocks were, on average, down 38% from their peaks. It is therefore clear that exceptionally large gains by a small fraction of stocks in the Dow were responsible for the all-time high in the index". IMHO, if the other 19 stocks begin to turn for the positive there is more than plenty of room for the Dow to go much higher. I'll stay positive.

http://www.comstockfunds.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ titled Buybacks Lag, Squeeze Looms For Earnings, by Scott Patterson, dated 1/27/07.

The buyback binge shows signs of burnout. Corporations have been gobbling up theire own shares for more than three years. Hefty cash flow and cheap debt made it attractive for companies to repurchase previously issued stock, which in turn helps to increase earnings per share by reducing the number of shares outstanding. But according to estimates from S&P, buybacks haven't increased since lasy spring.

Share buybacks more than tripled from 2003 to 2006, rising to an estimated $437 billion from $131 billion, according to S&P. That is roughly enough money to buy all outstanding shares of Exxon Mobil, the world's largest company by market value. Exxon itself was at the head of the line in the buyback binge, having repurchased 42.3 million of its shares in the 24 months through the third quarter of 2006, according to S&P.

The buybacks have given companies a big boost. Since the current bull market started in 2002, 29 of 30 companies in the DJIA have seen a positive impact on per-share earnings from buybacks. That might be changing. In the fourth quarter buybacks by S&P 500 companies were up an estimated 5.6% from the previous year. That was well below the average year-over-year increase of 54% for the previous 12 quarters. The total dollar amount of buybacks in the fourth quarter - estimated by S&P at $110 billion - was down from record second-quarter 2006 buybacks of $117 billion.

The stock-market rally in the second half of the year might have made companies less eager to buy shares at elevated prices. Of course, buybacks could rise again. Corporate executives are under great pressure to keep their share prices rising. But the latest pause is a timely reminder that buybacks can't keep surging forever. (We don't need forever, just a few more years).

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If stocks have been rising mostly because of buybacks over the past 3 years, that should mean there is still plenty of money from investors. All that sideline money might create some big moves up.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The position that Tom has taken is not out of the ordinary but rather may be synonymous with the small individual investors. The longer the herd takes to get in the better off I am as far as profit potential. In a research note, Bank of America strategist Thomas McManus says China could create an investment institution similar to Singapore's Government of Singapore Investment Corp., and funnel hundreds of billions of dollars into assets worldwide, including U.S. stocks. Sounds good to me.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Laszlo Birinyi: "My concern is that too many investors are bulls only because the market is doing well now. In 2006 it did well for all except one month, May. If during that month your bullish conviction wavered, then you weren't a bull, you were a sheep following a herd. Not a good way to be a successful investor".

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oil is up almost $2.00 to $56.00. Natural gas is up 9%. My oceanic will do better today as compared to yesterday. Although on a +3.76 point move yesterday I did pull down $8K so the internal dynamics of the markets are still positive. Haven't made any money in my tugboat account now for three trading days - maybe today will be different. Looking forward to my next DCA before the C fund gets more expensive. I'm waiting for two very important factors that make up a 3 of 3 structture - the first is that you will see the greatest plurality of volume and breadth A/D line data leading up to the center point. The second thing is a 3rd waves are 3rd waves because the majority recognizes the prevailing trend of the price pattern. I'm just early as a contrarian investor. We've been and will continue to impulse higher which are vigorous moves in the direction of the trend with brief pauses of the pattern for consolidation. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://www.theretirementadvisor.net

This is a brand new newsletter that is the collaborative efforts of Henry To and fellow newsletter writers David Korn, editor of BeginInvesting.com, and Kirk Lindstrom of Investment.suite101.com - the first issue is free and costs $99 for 12 issues. I peaked at it and I must admit it's much more than I could ever use. But maybe at a later date. Excellent read though.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I apparently will not achieve my financial goal for January. So far this month I'm up $59,000. Perhaps today will provide a further boost and if I include the first two trading days of February I'll come close. Hate to break up the week. February is normally a weak month but this year may be a surprise and show strength. It takes creativity to stay long.

 

[MADDOG]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

birch

u must have been the one with the million dollars in their account;
when the poll was asked recently here.

me and my measily 347.37 dollars
will just crawl over here under the porch here.

one of these days
i'll grow big & strong like the mighty birch tree

md

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

MADDOG,

I need to specify that I was relating growth from my outside oceanic account which is at $1.3M so the leverage is greater. My tugboat TSP account is only at $546,000 to date - my goal is to add another $125,000 over this year. The million dollar baby must belong to Ocean or Dell. I'm not concerned about security talking about my balances. I know it inflames some of our more liberal members but it takes time to accumulate shares and the only way to get shares is to work and invest those shares. Just stay on the right side of the curve and stay informed. You will see more and more power accounts now that the caps have been elevated.

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

MADDOG,

..... You will see more and more power accounts now that the caps have been elevated.

If only we had been able to put in the IRS limit all the way back to 87. The 10% max hurt us all. Removing this restriction and adding the new funds is the best thing the TSP Board ever did. IMHO

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If only we had been able to put in the IRS limit all the way back to 87. The 10% max hurt us all. Removing this restriction and adding the new funds is the best thing the TSP Board ever did. IMHO

They need to add more funds, IMHO.

 

[SkiUtah]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Does today's rally, and the S&P 500 presently approaching 1440 confirm any 3rd wave indicators?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now that you have recognized the prevailing trend, I'd say we are approaching the centerpoint. I'd wait and see what happens the next two trading days. How did you find out about the 3rd wave - that's supposed to be a secret. Presently, there is nothing showing anykind of weakness that would promote a price top of intermediate degree.

 

[SkiUtah]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I heard it from you first, and have been following it for the last year.
I am a trend guy.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The DJTA is now at 4906 and Henry To has been waiting on a value of 4881 to declare a buy confirmation of Primary trend on the Dow Theory. This is now simultaneous with the new all-time high of both the transports and the industrials. Wait until the public hears about this development. The market is a discounter of the fundamentals and we are at Goldilocks time. A Dow of 13,000 is just around the corner without a pause to refresh.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm rather disappointed in the Dow 98 point move yesterday. I only made $8K which brings me to $67K toward my January goal of $100K. Since we actually had two non-trading days in January I'm going to cheat and use the last two days of this week toward my total. I'll accept what ever February decides to render. I think we are again at the beginning stages of a breadth thrust in progress. We may be looking at the possibility of a perfect landing - Goldilocks. Market bottoms can form with a spike up, but market tops seldom form with a spike down. It's more usual to experience two or three local tops in succession. That's why it's so important for the transports to break through 5,000 on that index and move much higher. The most remarkable aspect of this economic recovery is the magnitude and persistance of liquidity - testosterone loaded. Can I make $33,000 in two days?

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm not being a smarta$$, just wondering why a multi-millionaire, like yourself, isn't retired and spends so much time in blogs? I'm honestly just curious.

Best of luck and may your accts keep growing.