Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Griffin,

The best thing you can do to play catch up is to sit in front of the fireplace over the weekend and read my posts - you are having a problem with accuracy. The $100,000 will be in my TSP account if this rally continues to the end of the year. My other account where I don't pay fees will be much, much higher than that - now I've depressed you. I actually hope to get the opportunity to do some more buying before the year ends - I may have a buy out going down. Next week should be another good one - can you see past Monday? Or is that where you get off? More figgy pudding today for you - none for your buddy Mr. Jiffy Lube.

Actually I do pay a fee but not individual transaction costs - and I've got 148 trades to burn before year end. That doesn't leave much time but I can easily burn 50 in an afternoon - all you need to do is lend me some money.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The $100,000 will be in my TSP account if this rally continues to the end of the year.

If...exactly how big is that if....if the C-fund should spike another 10% in the next couple of weeks? What was your predicition for the S&P 500, that you were touting as gospel to some nieve newbie back in October....1550?

Speaking of seeing past Monday, I can see 30 years of 15-20% returns annually on average. But it's like quitting smoking or recovering from alcholism (I picked things I think you can relate to) it's done one day at a time. Yes sir, I fully intend to retire with 2.5 to 3.0M in my account 20 years from now.

PS - If your daughter hits all her marks, 15-20 years from now she just might out rank me, if that happens feel free to encourage her to write me a bad OER.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My ultimate SPX top is 1700 before I get nervous - and you just might see 1550 before the year ends because it is certainly achievable. Good luck to you on your $3.0M, you'll need it to cover your stomach distress. You realize if you do reach a certain level of success that every time you jump you got more on the line and the fear will eat you up - anxiety. I'll be around awhile longer to watch. And currently my 1lt has all her money going into the C fund - not the full $44,000 but enough to make a difference. And a number of her friends are doing the same allocation.
I counted 703 views on the Birchtree Threadkilla thread from when I signed off last night. I'm going to be as popular as the Milk-man. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What make's you think that timing brings me anything other then pure enjoyment? It's a challenge, unlike matching wits with you, it certainly is not a source of stress.

As long as I continue to spar with you on this thread, it will attract a crowd. Maybe, just maybe, if I bring enough attention to your thread you might decide to set up camp here. Probably not, but one can dream .

Who are you going to create next appletree?, were short a "figtree", it would add a garden of eden effect to the board. How about a nice dogwood, they bloom in the spring, white flowers....very nice .

 

[FundSurfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Actually I do pay a fee but not individual transaction costs - and I've got 148 trades to burn before year end. That doesn't leave much time but I can easily burn 50 in an afternoon - all you need to do is lend me some money.

I can look up some penny stocks for ya! :nuts: :nuts: :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Fundsurfer but I've never bought a penny stock in my life - however a few positions over the years have turned into penny stocks, I hate when that happens. The tax loss carry forward evens it out eventually.

Griffin,
I think there is a plumtree signature member somewhere. Birchtree reminds me of my New England roots. Maybe I should have selected Populartree.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The doubters are stepping aside, at least until next year, and the bulls are beginning to wonder how high they can push the stock market before year's end. After almost a month of soft performance, when some investors worried that the market had already peaked for the year, stocks resumed their rampage this past week, on the back of reassuring economic and profit data.

There were some signs Friday that the market was getting winded. The day's gains were focused on the large U.S. stocks that dominate the major indexes. Most shares declined, including small stocks, foreign stocks, utilities and transports. But the doubters have been wrong this year. And the economic news recently has been so reassuring that few seemed to share the worries. A week ago Friday, investors got a robust employment report, quieting recession fears. On Tuesday of this past week, the Fed hinted that it might not be as worried about inflation as it had been. Then came a strong November retail sales report, dousing consumer-spending concerns. Major brokerage firms reported strong quarterly results, and that was followed by Friday's surprising benign consumer inflation data.

Investors found it hard to argue with the notion that the much-desired Goldilocks economy - not too hot, not too cold - was in place. Moderate economic growth with mild inflation would be an ideal scenario for steady stock gains (let me repeat that - steady stock gains). For now, the Goldilocks' scenario is winning, as inflation is trending down and the promise exists that economic growth will pick itself up out of a slowdown. Foreigners also are being won back to U.S. investments. Net foreign purchases of U.S. stocks rose in October to the highest level since January of this year.

The moral of this story is that there is still plenty of time to pay up to play.

http://www.wsj.com/onlinetoday

 

[post]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Brichtree,

Why put your 2% allocation in G fund, why not L income?

Just curious.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Post,

I'm in the process of slowly building an insurance policy - in preparation for the next blind side. I'll be adding another 2% sometime after the first of the year. I don't want to take too much off the table so it becomes a sacrifice. We may not get any kind of a serious correction in 2007 so I want every share of the C fund working for my benefit - but if we do get the hammer I'll have an emergency stash to spend. I took my first 2% out at a price of $15.41 so that was way early - patience is virtuous. The next 2% will probably come from over $16.25. It's hard to do but necessary. Thanx for your inquiry. Have some figgy pudding.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[mailmanusa]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I saw when you made that IFT to 2%G and 98%C. My first thought was you did it to prevoke a response. Interstingly, thats also my last thought. poke poke................ its a personality thing,thats my guess.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Don't be in a rush - learn before your churn. Try not to be another bouncy red rubber ball - it's a lot like skipping rope.
A key question for 2007 may be whether P/E expansion occurs because the "P" goes up or the "E" goes down. Higher quality stocks have outperformed during every period of P/E expansion in the past 20 years.

From Merrill: Trend and momentum have been the stock market's best indicators for the past few months, and they continue to point to higher highs despite their overbought readings. The weekly RSI and MACD are still showing upward momentum, supporting the recent highs in several of the market averages. We expect small and mid cap stocks to outperform large cap stocks into early part of next year, and we look for the NASDAQ Composite (NDX) to outperform the S&P 500. (I don't believe them).
Hedge funds should be the main driver of new highs.
The annualized 13 week rate of change for the MZM monetary aggregate has picked up to nearly 8% year to year from about 5%. That is typical seasonal development, but the liquidity it provides often results in a positive performance by the equity markets. The seasonal effect is generally strongest during the last two weeks of December.

 

[mailmanusa]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Can you put that in laymans terms. Sorry, I drank a few while wathcing the game. Go Ravens......

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It does look more and more like the U.S. is getting back into a sweet spot Goldilocks economy. In the last few months, it has looked like the economy would slow way down on weakness in both housing and auto sectors and that inflation was high enough to make the Fed nervous. Now, the data strongly suggests that inflation is moderating. Plus, the auto sector, and particularly the housing sector, are getting some bounce from the continued softness in the long end of the yield curve. As for false signals, traditionalists see the current flat to inverted yield curve as a sign of economic slowdown but it is becoming more and more apparent that the signal is a mixed one, what with China and much of Asia recycling their export dollars back into the U.S. bond market - bidding up U.S. bond prices and driving down yields.

The NYSE breadth MCSUM is holding +1087 - so don't look for any big price decay this week.
http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/navarro/2006/1217.html

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Good information regarding the NYSE breadth MCSUM.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sponsor,

There is a summation index on this graph.
http://safehaven.com/article-6525.htm

The stock market has shown exceptional strength since its summer lows, the bull market may last quite a bit longer than many expect. That does not mean that there will not be corrections along the way. In fact, one is probably right around the corner. The 9 month cycle made its last low in June, and the next one should come about mid-February. Also, the 20 week cycle last bottomed in mid-October and is scheduled to do so again in early February. The combined action of these two cycles should bring about the first significant stock market reaction since May 2006.

Ferdinand, have you made out the list of our next buys yet? I think we should go back in this week and burn as many trades as we can afford - the more you're in the bigger the win. I got so much superlative manure in my front yard it's making me down right GREEDY. Snort.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I appreciate the in-depth answer you are providing with respect to my question the day before yesterday, asking you to help me learn more of the cycles. I saved this link to my favorites and will be studying it as we go along. Nevertheless, because you have a better grasp of these matters, I will ask you to keep posting your opinion or views of the potential changes as we move ahead. Thank you. P.S. Who is Ferdinand? Is he providing the manure??

Sponsor,

There is a summation index on this graph.
http://safehaven.com/article-6525.htm

The stock market has shown exceptional strength since its summer lows, the bull market may last quite a bit longer than many expect. That does not mean that there will not be corrections along the way. In fact, one is probably right around the corner. The 9 month cycle made its last low in June, and the next one should come about mid-February. Also, the 20 week cycle last bottomed in mid-October and is scheduled to do so again in early February. The combined action of these two cycles should bring about the first significant stock market reaction since May 2006.

Ferdinand, have you made out the list of our next buys yet? I think we should go back in this week and burn as many trades as we can afford - the more you're in the bigger the win. I got so much superlative manure in my front yard it's making me down right GREEDY. Snort.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I appreciate the in-depth answer you are providing with respect to my question the day before yesterday, asking you to help me learn more of the cycles. I saved this link to my favorites and will be studying it as we go along. Nevertheless, because you have a better grasp of these matters, I will ask you to keep posting your opinion or views of the potential changes as we move ahead. Thank you. P.S. Who is Ferdinand? Is he providing the manure??

Sponsor,

There is a summation index on this graph.
http://safehaven.com/article-6525.htm

The stock market has shown exceptional strength since its summer lows, the bull market may last quite a bit longer than many expect. That does not mean that there will not be corrections along the way. In fact, one is probably right around the corner. The 9 month cycle made its last low in June, and the next one should come about mid-February. Also, the 20 week cycle last bottomed in mid-October and is scheduled to do so again in early February. The combined action of these two cycles should bring about the first significant stock market reaction since May 2006.

Ferdinand, have you made out the list of our next buys yet? I think we should go back in this week and burn as many trades as we can afford - the more you're in the bigger the win. I got so much superlative manure in my front yard it's making me down right GREEDY. Snort.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Pardon the double post. Too early in the morning. Going back to sleep!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand is the Disney cartoon bull that liked to smell the flowers rather than fight in the bull arena. And his greatest asset is his bull manure - it makes everything grow especially portfolios. Snort.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Let's not divert Ferdinand's energies into a dangerous bullfight. Let's keep him smelling the flowers and and serving him all the food he can eat!!