Birchtree's Account Talk

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Perhaps an end-of-era type thing. Such as baby-boomers going on to retirement? My opinion is that the event will be a temporary matter full of volatility. Provided of course, that the United States of America can manage to maintain World leadership and World hegemony. If we can keep being the economic engine of the World, it will be easier to manage and maintain?

Surely a combination of both. If we have low and going lower inflation the Fed won't worry any longer about growth and will step in to decrease rates to save the housing consumer. Even though the consumer is lighter now on their home equity draws - they have shifted wealth creation to the stock market and spending remains intact. 2007 is going to be an excellent year for the stock market, as a matter of fact 2008 is also going to be a good year for the stock market. Oh alright, 2009 is also going to be a good year for the stock market - then 2010 is the game up year IMHO. There will definitely be some sharp and quick corrections but I view these as opportunities most of the time. A girl has to have some volatility in her relationships. I just love hot maple syrup on snow.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Biech,

This was a good clarification for 350Comm Tech, but it also substantiates the other side of the coin for me and others that are active members of TSPtalk.com. Show-me's previous posts to the effect that, although it is a riskier requires a hands-on attention span and strategy, short-term or trend-trading can really help you increase you nest-egg faster, provided that you know what you are doing. Of course, good interpretation of the right technical analysis signals is of essence! If you are not ready and willing to do be a hands-on-trader, don't do this at home! Good Luck!

sponsor,

I didn't need clarification. I understand DCA and know when best to use it. My question to Birch was more of a statement. I was just trying to push his buttons.

As for DCA, I think Birch could be doing a better job at it, but who am I to tell the King of DCA on how to invest?

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Provided that the advise is well-meant, the King always needs good counselors and advise! Glad to hear you 350!

sponsor,

I didn't need clarification. I understand DCA and know when best to use it. My question to Birch was more of a statement. I was just trying to push his buttons.

As for DCA, I think Birch could be doing a better job at it, but who am I to tell the King of DCA on how to invest?

 

[Fivetears]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Absolutely no harm done. I enjoy your reads.

Fivetears,

I ask you forgiveness for my mistake! This post was addressed to you, and I addressed it to Birchtree. Thanks for your understanding!

 

[Fivetears]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Me too brother... Me too. I thought, with a car wash like that, you may have got some soap in your mind. :nuts:

sponsor, ...I was just trying to push his buttons. As for DCA, I think Birch could be doing a better job at it, but who am I to tell the King of DCA on how to invest?

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I know that you mean no harm. I would'nt have thought of you capable of this or thought of it! Please understand that we are currently employed Federal employees, or militay personnel, as I am.

Absolutely no harm done. I enjoy your reads.

 

[Fivetears]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

:blink: uh... all-righty then.

I know that you mean no harm. I would'nt have thought of you capable of this or thought of it! Please understand that we are currently employed Federal employees, or militay personnel, as I am.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

OK Santa's helpers read this: The Santa Claus Rally is scheduled to start on Dec. 22 and run through Jan 3. We normally experience a brief, yet respectable, rally from the last five trading days of the year through the first two of the new year. The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.6% gain during this seven-day span since 1969. From the Almana Investor.

This reminds me of the time in 1983 when I made $40,000 in four days during a Santa rally only to give it all back over the next three months. Presents come and some go back. Happy Holly.

 

[dell]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How much trading will take place Dec 22 thru Jan 3 ? The markets will only be open for a few days during that time frame. How do you rally when the markets are closed?

Dell

 

[SkyPilot]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You only need a couple of days... to rally, or to crash...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dell,

A lot of activity can take place in those seven days. My choice is to stay and play - either way I'm not into watching. There are 10,000 hedge funds and many have not participated in the recent rally and they will be forced to dress up their portfolios for marketing reasons. It's all about capturing assets and charging management fees. See how they run....

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

NYAD (NYSE Advance - Decline Issues) all-time highs, 169147.00 cumulative
NYUD (NYSE Advance - Decline Volume) all-time highs, 19348.22 cumulative.
NYSE Composite all-time highs 9042.19
The NYSE daily Ratio Adjusted (RA) cumulative AD line is nearing its all-time high resistance posted in March 1959. The SPX was around 55 and the Dow just over 600 in 1959. The NYSE RA-AD line is serving as a measure of liquidity and the willingness of that liquidity to be risked in equities. Therefore, the daily RA-AD line approaching its all-time high of 1959 is telling us there is a lot of money out there willing to be risked in equities. There is another important long term ramification of the NYSE RA-AD line potentially exceeding its all-time high, and that is the RA-AD line's utility when conducting Elliott Wave (EW) counts. A break of the all-time high in the RA-AD line will signal an Elliott Wave Primary degree and the center point of Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3. Just keep me waitin...
12/8/06 RA-AD line = 164,733
3/13/1959 RA-AD record = 166,190
12/8/06: NYSE Composite Ratio Adjusted AD line needs less than 4800 new raw advances to break all-time RA-AD line high set in 1959.
The data upon which these AD numbers are derived are from the Wall Street Journal and have been for the past 60+ years. If you do not subscribe to TWSJ, the McClellans post daily NYSE AD numbers daily on their web site: http://www.mcoscillator.com/data.html

 

[dell]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So which fund benefits from a Dec Santa Claus rally: S or C ?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The C fund will most likely be the outperformer for December, the S fund may get active in January for the small cap January effect. The Bank of Japan's corporate-sentiment survey is released Friday. My wife will hold her international at least through June. Figgy Pudding.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bottom line, when it's all said and done this holiday sales season should be a good one, but does not appear to be too strong. The economy appears to be on solid footing, but the risk that holiday sales could be gangbusters appears to be dissipating. And if holiday sales are not gangbusters, then the economy is probably running significantly below potential, the case for higher inflation is dissipating, and the case for a FRed easing is building. Although recent productivity readings have been on the soft side, a recent paper from the NY Fed suggests that productivity numbers could rebound to a strong 3% level over the next few years. This should bias the economic data toward more growth, and less inflation. over time. I'm looking for the CPI on Friday to be -1.5%, the first real drop since 2001. Figgy Pudding for all.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I suspect the market will recognize a clean break of the 1959 RA-AD line high - that should creat some heavy lift off.
The NYSE breadth MCSUM has a small triple top. This is more in the way of a well deserved rest after an extremely dynamic uptrend. The NYSE breadth MCO continues to move lower below the zero line. This may be the result of the 20 week cycle influence going on here right now. The move below the zero line on the NYSE breadth MCO has now equated to a turn to the downside of the NYSE breadth MCSUM. Now if we were at the +500 level, this would be a signal in which one would want to start closing long positions as conditions warrant, but we're not at the +500 level or below it - we are starting this decline from an extreme reading of above +1100. The MCSUM is now entitled to start a move back to or towards its zero line, but at the same time as high as the NYSE breadth MCSUM is at this time (+1100) the MCSUM can continue to decline while price continues to move higher. As the MCSUM continues to move lower, less and less stocks will continue to halt their uptrends during this time - this will usually start with small caps, and then move to the mid caps, and then finally to the high caps in this broader market participation. This is why you usually see the high caps the last stocks showing a directional move in price sequence. It's going to take at least a month to even get to levels in which one would want to be concerned overall. I'll simply wait for the next advancing sequence. Investors, as with practitioners of other trades, are guided by precedent. Herds, as a rule, make for poor investors.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Right now only breadth plurality matters - price is secondary - as breadth leads price and price can take its time in catching up to what breadth is telling us. And the longer it takes to do so, the quicker and more dramatic the move we eventually see. Now that we have taken out the highs on the SPX there is a high percentage chance that a new (and continuing) advancing price trend is underway. Buy, buy, buy this has been the easiest trade during the sequence. So at this point, we're still working off the momentum of the energy we saw come into the market over the last 5 months, where higher prices will more than likely be seen without the benefit of breadth confirmation. Patiently waiting for a break of the all-time high in the RA-AD line. I want the Elliott Wave Primary degree and the center point of Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3. Don't get caught on the sidelines when the stampede starts - you'll have to run hard to catch the train. Jingle Bells.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just out of curiosity, which one of the little gems do you favor?

Don't get caught on the sidelines when the stampede starts - you'll have to run hard to catch the train. Jingle Bells.

...Herds, as a rule, make for poor investors.

Doesn't matter...... either way your right or your DCA.

 

[FundSurfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Doesn't matter...... either way your right or your DCA.

Griffin, don't you know what happens when you mess with the bull???

You get the horn.

 

[Griffin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Griffin, don't you know what happens when you mess with the bull???

You get the horn.

He keeps telling me that