Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gents - it's an offensive maneuver for the unreliability of December. I may shift another 2% in a few weeks - building some change to take opportunity of any blind side that may arrive. It's all in the sacrifice.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gents - it's an offensive maneuver for the unreliability of December. I may shift another 2% in a few weeks - building some change to take opportunity of any blind side that may arrive. It's all in the sacrifice.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Why move now if your concerned about Dec?

I think your just messin with people to gauge reaction.

Or could the dam really be breaking?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm just easing a little profit off the top - nothing to be alarmed about. A simple insurance program to help with the blind side. If I end up wrong it all goes back to work. The desire to be right is in direct opposition to the ability to be successful. Market timing is based on probabilities that make us successful over time. Too much focus on a single trade causes the fear levels to rise. As this occurs, market timers become hesitant and cautious, trying to avoid mistakes. The risks of choking under pressure (not making a trade) build. All market timers, at times, feel fear. But successful market timers manage their fear, while losing market timers are controlled by it. The fear of loss can keep a market timer from executing a trade. Fears cloud decisions. I like to let the market come to me - that's how I strategize.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ditto that one!​

That almost set up panic!​

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's only a small insurance policy - there is still many more points to gain probably right through the end of the year into Spring. But there is an inevitable hanging over head - so let it come and be done with it. We may be well above Dow 13,000 when the correction arrives. When the press gets on board with the Dow Theory Primary buy confirmation - there will be a hoofer stampede and 90% C fund will do me just fine.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Power up Tonto. If we are able to take out the declining tops line on the NYSE breadth MCO, we will then be able to move higher on the NYSE breadth MCSUM. Looking at the three year chart of the NYSE breadth MCSUM our next area of probable resistance comes in at the +1200 level. And since the MCSUM is at such a high level as it is right now, the average stock price is going to move in higher percentage moves in the direction of this current trend during this advance. The MCSUM's are very high which would equate to high percentage (point) moves and a lack of price decay. Up now eight of the last nine days. I saw the Dow rally one year thirteen days in a row - so this momentum is not out of the ordinary.

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

did you tell her to ride the buss that is what i told mine of course this is her reaction

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No, I told her I would give her a 4 year old acura 3.0 if she joined college ROTC. So she joined and loved it. Free money for shopping. Now she travels for Uncle and still shops. We call her 1lt. Buzz.

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

sounds like you did a great job getting her there

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I'd like to learn more about these indicators and how they work for you. Can you please post some sort of explanation, or if you have already done so, can you guide me to the thread or the message number? Thanks in advance!

Power up Tonto. If we are able to take out the declining tops line on the NYSE breadth MCO, we will then be able to move higher on the NYSE breadth MCSUM. Looking at the three year chart of the NYSE breadth MCSUM our next area of probable resistance comes in at the +1200 level. And since the MCSUM is at such a high level as it is right now, the average stock price is going to move in higher percentage moves in the direction of this current trend during this advance. The MCSUM's are very high which would equate to high percentage (point) moves and a lack of price decay. Up now eight of the last nine days. I saw the Dow rally one year thirteen days in a row - so this momentum is not out of the ordinary.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE breadth MCO had a pull back right at the declining tops line and the NYSE breadth MCSUM is now testing its October highs, but hasn't yet moved above this level. We got four days next week to achieve these goals. We continue to unwind in what may be the greatest market rally of all time both in time and scope. This is a classic Elliott third wave to the upside. Relentless broad participation, volume increasing and we're still not at the midpoint. This is where we might see a possible melt up.

The budget deficit is going to show so much improvement in the next few years we will wake up one morning sooner than anyone expects and find a surplus. We will have grown our way out of the deficit.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sponsor,

http://www.mcoscillator.com

McClellan Oscillator - McClellan Summation Index

The MCO will show you the speed in which money is moving in or out of the market. The MCSUM will show you the degree and the direction of this same speed. The volume oscillator will show you how much in the way of push you have. I'm still learning myself.

The MID breadth MCSUM has moved to new highs
The SML breadth MCSUM has also moved to new highs
The TM breadth MCSUM has also moved to new highs
Breakout to the upside on the SPX volume MCO
Breakout to the upside on the OEX volume MCO
SML volume MCSUM has gone to new highs
There's nothing yet suggesting that we're close to finishing this move. Money on the sidelines is plentiful. The VIX remains low and this smells like an Elliott Primary wave now and if we get new all-time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD, it will be of Primary degree.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a triple buy confirmation from the Dow Theory with the DJU, DJT, and DJIA all placing new all-time highs simultaneously. That will create a bullish stampede of notoriety.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Harry Dent: Corporate earnings are at all time highs, yet investors seem to be unimpressed by those earnings, as stock P/E ratios are at lows not seen in nearly a decade. The good news is that this investor pessimism is quietly laying the foundation for another strong bull market in stocks. We see a large advance ahead comparable to 2003, with a Dow of around 15,000 by late 2007 or early 2008. 20,000 on the Dow by 2009. This will launch the long awaited bubble (which started in July 2006). Large caps in the U.S. are likely to have the best risk/return performance in the next two to three years. The preponderance of broader technical indicators are just moving from extreme bearish readings in June/July 2006 and argue for a strong advance over the next few years. There should be only minor corrections ahead, given the still extreme undervaluation of stocks.

A lot of people have been sitting out this dance, and before we top out, I think we are going to get them invested up to their eyeballs. I hope Tom can wait until February.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's (mco and mcsum)

Grateful for your help!

Sponsor,

http://www.mcoscillator.com

McClellan Oscillator - McClellan Summation Index

The MCO will show you the speed in which money is moving in or out of the market. The MCSUM will show you the degree and the direction of this same speed. The volume oscillator will show you how much in the way of push you have. I'm still learning myself.

The MID breadth MCSUM has moved to new highs
The SML breadth MCSUM has also moved to new highs
The TM breadth MCSUM has also moved to new highs
Breakout to the upside on the SPX volume MCO
Breakout to the upside on the OEX volume MCO
SML volume MCSUM has gone to new highs
There's nothing yet suggesting that we're close to finishing this move. Money on the sidelines is plentiful. The VIX remains low and this smells like an Elliott Primary wave now and if we get new all-time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD, it will be of Primary degree.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a triple buy confirmation from the Dow Theory with the DJU, DJT, and DJIA all placing new all-time highs simultaneously. That will create a bullish stampede of notoriety.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The stock market has been in a surprisingly strong rally since the middle of July - so strong, that many experienced investors find it too good to be true. Ironically, that very skepticism could be one of the reasons the market is doing so well. Some of the best market advances seem to be the ones that are hardest to believe, and this one is hard to believe. If a lot of smart prople don't believe in the rally, how can that be good? That's where the irony comes in. Stock rallies often happen when the market is full of doubters. Those are times when money managers and individuals alike have pulled money out of stocks and are holding cash. As long as doubters remain to be converted, money can keep moving away from other investments and into stocks, pushing prices higher.

The reason the advance has persisted is that traders, especially hedge funds, just got very bearish in the summer. They have been very reluctant to reverse their opinion. Now they are getting carried, screaming, into the market. They are buying stocks against their better judgement, for fear of being left behind by competitors. Until more of them give in and turn bullish the market is likely to keep rising.

A measure of short selling on the NYSE shows that the practice remains widespread, suggesting that plenty of pros doubt the recent gains - not much optimism there. After all the gains, some are covering their bets by buying the stocks back, often at a financial loss. The important thing is to look at the flow of money into ans out of the market. There is evry sign that money is continuing to move off the sidelines and into stocks. Snort.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The reason the advance has persisted is that traders, especially hedge funds, just got very bearish in the summer. They have been very reluctant to reverse their opinion. Now they are getting carried, screaming, into the market. They are buying stocks against their better judgement, for fear of being left behind by competitors. Until more of them give in and turn bullish the market is likely to keep rising.

So are you saying that hedge funds are the dumb money we've spoken about on this board? I guess I could see truth in that if they are motivated by greed, which can get too emotional at times.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hedge funds just like mutual funds are motivated by marketing - they need those percentage gains to pull in new money for fees. They are supposed to be smart money - but they are managed mostly by youngsters who have difficulty with their emotions. I'm looking for a good day today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

When will it end? The next major cycle, the 7 year cycle, will not bottom until 2008, and only the 9 month cycle, scheduled to bottom about May'07 could have a restraining cyclical influence on the market. Otherwise any pull backs will be less than 4% - me thinks. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Only $0.07 more for a $2.00 gain for the year in the C fund - does not include DCA. This gain exceeds my expectations - but there may be more to follow. I've learned previously you can't fight destiny. I'll take another $0.50 if fate is willing. Snort.