Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My daughter asked me one time what did I do in 1987 when the stock market crashed. I told her that was the day I filled my shoes. And of course a young inquiring mind had to ask what did I fill my shoes with. Well it wasn't manure but it was darn close. I stayed home from work the next day with my fingers on the sell trigger - but never pulled. You live and learn. I actually enjoy an occasional visit from the pain doctor - it keeps me grounded.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You want pain, I gotcha some pain in your future buddy - read on Birchtree.

The Dow Industrials have now gone 927 days without a 10% correction, the fourth longest stretch of good times in history. By December 21st it will be the third longest run of good luck the stock market has ever experienced. By March 7th of next year, if a 10% correction has not unfolded, it will mark the second longest uninterrupted rally in stock market history. If you aren't scared you are a fool to tempt destiny. I got no fear. On average during the twentieth century, stocks suffered a 10% correction every 525 days and a 15% correction every 814 days. The declines that eventually commenced after the nine longest running rallies in history without a 10% correction ended with downsides of 22.6% on average. 2010 is my target date for a test with destiny.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
Isn't there some old saying about not using history in judging the future market?
Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Spaf,

I think it has something to do with three blind mice. It could be a long and tickelish struggle looking for the ultimate top - but it's there somewhere. I want to be with you and the lilly pad when destiny takes its turn. There will be false shake outs and mucho volatility that will provide ample opportunity for the shooters - have gun, will travel. It's all in the preparation...

Saw your comment about any day above ground is a good day. We are alone in our solitude - but we are not alone. You take care. Do you wax the "Lilly Pad"?

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Spaf,

Saw your comment about any day above ground is a good day. We are alone in our solitude - but we are not alone. You take care. Do you wax the "Lilly Pad"?

Dennis

Dennis,

No, I use a leaf blower!...........

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Fears about growth and geoplitics have kept stocks cheap. A simple capitalized profits model (corporate profits divided by interest rates) suggests that even after recent strength, the broad U.S. equity market is 35% undervalued.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Up 58 points right now - what's up Rochester?

 

[Pilgrim]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Up 58 points right now - what's up Rochester?

Could it be oil? It was holding at about 58.70 until about 2:15pm then suddenly dropped to 58.30 (0.6% loss in ten minutes). No clue why.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Relates to some dove speak from Fed member Poole. What we need now is to really squeez the shorts in the last 30 minutes - that will prepare the others for more covering tomorrow. Looking for P/E multiple expansion.

 

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The bull showed it"s horns today. With Christmas nearing those on the sidelines are sweating it now. That Dow 12600 by years end looks doable.

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Relates to some dove speak from Fed member Poole. What we need now is to really squeez the shorts in the last 30 minutes - that will prepare the others for more covering tomorrow. Looking for P/E multiple expansion.

Wonder if we'll get another Fed member tomorrow to contradict what today's Fed member said?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Several new all-time highs today as well as yearly highs.
R2K new all-time high at 785.06
Wilshire 5000 new all-time high at 14,017.69
DJIA new all-time high at 12,218.01
NYSE Composite new all-time high at 8880.47

The SPX on the forward 52 week concensus eranings is at 15.0. The SPX has been in a solid uptrend since the triple bottom in '02 - '03. Since Feb'04 the SPX has been falling (from 18.4 to 13.7) while the SPX has been rising from (1140 to 1393). That is, earnings have been rising faster than the stock market, which has functioned to compress the aggregate P/E ratio of the SPX quite significantly. The downtward trend in the market's P/E ratio is now under some pressure to break to the upside, which suggests that P/E multiple expansion is quite possible over the next 1-2 years. And well why the heck not. I'm going to take a small taste of frosting just in case December is a fake out.

 

[ocean]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I know I am behind you but I just hit my 500K mark COB today.

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ocean.

I'm going to be making a few small sacrifices by taking off a little frosting as insurance into December. I'd rather have the insurance over profit, it may or may not pay for itself. So I'm giving you a chance to catch up by taking money off the table. I'm not interested in the copper - I stll prefer dimes. But sometimes a little prudence can be wiser than valor. And besides the sacrifice isn't all that great, it's only 2%. I'm going to go check your position to see if you are on the lilly pad.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ocean,

If you would cut me off some of that mighty G - oh what I could do.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[ocean]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

Glad to see you adjusting your allocation even only 2%. I believe if you change your allocation once in a while and it will make you tough to beat.

I met my goal of 20% YTD returns and that’s why I play my position more conservative lately. Any profits that I make until year end would be bonus for me. Let’s see who will make the 600K mark first. Well that’s my goal for next year.

Ocean

 

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchtree 2% G fund. Why so defensive?

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

birchtree i am going to try 50 % of your C fund looks like you been doing well with this GL today

 

[atcsat64]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just IFT'd 2% more in the C to catch what you're missing, but somthing tells me that yours didn't really happen....

 

[Pilgrim]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchtree 2% G fund. Why so defensive?

When I saw that Birch did that, I checked all major news services to see if Hell had frozen over. But 2%?? That's gotta be the smallest lilly pad in the pond!