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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I promise to be on my best behavior - thanks Harvey.
Talked with a couple of guys in the Blue Ridge that were fly fishing for rainbow and german browns. They were doing a catch and release of these river trout. Saying that catching the same trout three times left them worn out. They are fighters for sure. I'll have to check and see what your position looks like.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Luckily, sometimes the soundest approach is the simplest.
Buy and hold works if stocks are going to rise steadily for several years. And during those nervous times good ole DCA is the redeeming factor - always buy'em cheaper when presented. But on occasion you simply have to pay up to play. The longer the lilly padders wait the more it will cost and you'll probably have less shares. But for some prudence is the better part of valor. For the Birchtree staying in front of the train is exciting.
genod
Investor
- Reaction score
- 3
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
I want to say that I enjoy your bullish enthusiasm. For me personally, the enthusiasm has reminded me of the benefits of DCA which I wholeheartedly embrace. But I was wondering (and this is nothing more than that), would you ever consider jumping to a lily pad during a market decline and then jump back in at a lower entry point?
Even in a market decline, wouldn't one part capital preservation and the other part DCA make it even better?
genod
Investor
- Reaction score
- 3
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Genod,
I believe we are experiencing a sea change - from cyclical moves to secular movement. I would be tempted to move if Nancy Pelosi got shot for some unknown reason - but other than that the market is very resilient. It's the NYSE group of stocks that are on the 3 of 3 watch, not the secondaries. The NYSE volume and breadth MCSUMs are now above a longer term key resistance point, and price corrections should be contained - it's hard for price to move lower the higher the index MCSUMs are. The NYAD is at all time highs again.
Two very important factors that make up a 3 of 3 structure - the first is that you will see the greatest plurality of volume and breadth A/D data leading up to the center point. The second thing is 3rd waves are 3rd waves because the majority recognizes the prevailing trend of the price pattern. We are not there yet. We've been stair stepping and impulsing higher which are vigorous moves in the direction of the trend with brief pauses of the pattern for consolidation.
I've been talking back to back secular bull mega bull trend since 3/03 and if I'm correct it will be the first time ever in history that this has occurred and it means we have years to go forward. Allah, $800 billion in money market funds that will create a tusnami. Be in to win.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Normally I don't have much fear but sometimes prudence is the better part of valor. Too much money chasing the internationals is a red flag for future trouble - but I'm staying for the next year at least. In 2007 and 2008 there is a compilation of cycles coming together with upside pressure. My worry from this point forward will be to watch for the 2 year cycle that will bottom in September 2010. The 3-year cycle will have peaked earlier that same year and will be down into September. The likely result should be a "hard down" decline into September of that year. This fits with my longer term scenario. Everyone will forget the possibilities of harm during the throes of market passion just like in May'00, but not this wiley coyote. I'm already planning my coming out to start pistol shooting especially when the volatility levels are rocking.Until then it's steady as she goes. DCA, DCA and more DCA.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If I could turn back the clock of time one thing I would wish for is that Dave and I were more amicable.
Don Hays recently had this to say, "Never, never, never in my 37 year career have the secular signs been more exciting than they are today. For the first time since June 2004, the Fed is opening the monetary spigot. The stock market knows all, and time will probably prove once again that monetary is joining valuation and psychology as a fuel for this rejuvenated secular bull market. Most secular trends last 20 years at least." Now it just so happens that our Tom was singing the same tune - only proves great minds think alike.
Now to the spill over into next week. I'm hardly concerned - after all I can take a 900 point plunge and still get back on my feet. The magnitude of a correction will be determined by who sells. If a correction is mostly an "unwinding trade" by hedge funds, it probably will be minor. However, if long only accounts sell along with the hedge funds, the correction could well be on the order of greater than 10%. However a correction plays out, brother it's only a golden buying opportunity. If you are going to slap me do it hard so I can recover and get on with the accumulation of green dollars. Prove to me this is as good a break out as 1982.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The graphs are signaling that the NYUD is at new all-time highs even after Friday. The volume MCSUM is extending to the upside. The NYAD is also at new all-time highs and the MCSUM is also extending to +1005.13. This is serious stuff. When you have the MCSUM as high as it is right now, many things roll off the markets with relative ease. The idea of a challenge of the MCSUM highs seen back in 2003 is watchable. If this move continues to be the epicenter of wave 3 of 3 up right now, we should not only take out this 2003 MCSUM high, but we will make new all-time highs on the ratio adjusted MCSUM and we would make new all-time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD, And if thid were to occur (and it already has ) then this 3 of 3 up could then be labeled as Primary wave 3 to the upside. For those not familiar with Elliot labeling, the "Primary" label is that of many years to decades. Any price corrections should be contained - it's hard for price to move lower due to the higher MCSUMs We'll see. I have a goodly number of dividends that will be reinvested next week so any price pullback would be humbly welcomed but only for the one week.
BigJohn
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
B'tree
Just wanted to pass along a thank-you as a new member but long time watcher for the information that you post. I am attempting to educate myself on the markets and trends that this information might (or might not) bear on my TSP account. It is obvious that you and many others make an earnest attempt to gauge market conditions and post your thoughts on what they mean: it is a real source of information to all of us on this site.
Thanks again.
BigJohn
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The odds are favorable - but just in case I'm going to go wash the car and not worry. It's only money - money comes and goes just like the ocean. I have no reason to get out - I'm basically pain oriented. And I like rubbing on the sheet metal, anyway.FUTURESTRADER
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Ed Handley giving a good market wave count analysis now at:
http://www.washingtonbusinessradio.com/Default.asp 'listen live'
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
As of 10/31/06 the S&P 500 has gone through 917 trading days without a 10% correction. According to the Stock Almanac, the longest such streak ended in June 1997 after 1723 straight days. Can we break the record during this mega bull trend? Well of course - this is the new bull market.
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
Re: Birchtree's account talk
WOW!
Now that is one good streak! Bring it on, I'm shake'n like a leaf, but bring it on.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
When cycles go from virtuous to vicious there tends to be an underestimation of how painful the cycle will get. In the housing market there is going to be a reasonably significant amount of pain, and that will probably mean outright price declines in some areas. This deep pain has yet to unfold. But I'll be waiting.
A lot of people have been sitting out this dance, and before we top out, I think we are going to get them in. The current upswing, which began in October 2002, has run for almost four years and is the fourth longest since 1900. But it hasn't been particularly strong, a reflection of investor reservations following the excesses of the 1990s and the bust of 2000-02. The Dow's 61% gain from the closing low of 7286.27 on 10/09/02, remains below the 85% average total gain for bull markets since 1900. The market will eventually demonstrate that Ferdinand is anything but average. This bull will be thinking about the next Fed rate easing and the longer the anticipation the higher we roll.Similar threads
I think he should have paid for his crime within three weeks. Would have saved us lots of money!
