Birchtree's Account Talk

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It did turn out to be a good week and month. The oceanic looked like this: +$48K, -$19K, +$34K, -$10K for a sweet gain of +$53K. The month came in at +$100K. So now we roll into June and that has the potential to blast me into escape velocity and oodles of margin buying power.
 
Given that the stock market does not typically top out until four to six months after a peak in the NYSE A/D line we are definitely still not close to the end of this cyclicakl bull market inside a mega trend secular bull. I'm holding out for Dow 24,000 and if that happens we are in for a glamorous ride. For a stock market bull a slow growing economy, at slightly less than +2%, is the sweet spot. Remember hoofhearted friends, one of the most bullish things that can happen to any market is for it to reach new multi-year highs. The whole month of June I'll be buying equities everyday and never selling. I'll be adding sheepishly on up days and voraciously on the (rarely occurring) down ones. The sixth year of a bull market has produced 26% growth - it'll be the wild west time this summer - stay and play.
 
Let me see now - what will the month of June bring Betula papyrifera. In 2012 I took in +$286K and in 2013 I lost -$173K. This year should be excellent and if so I'll be pulling some cash from my margin account in anticipation of weakness in the October to November time frame. If I'm wrong I'll spend it regardless. YTD I'm ahead +$259K which is nothing to write home about so I fully expect more gains to come in my direction. Mega trend secular bull markets are designed to help the willing make serious money and I'm so willing. Remember this is the bull market even amoeba doesn't believe in. And breakouts are definitely bullish.
 
I believe the new multi-decade Supercycle bull market still has legs and 2014 will demonstrate some ferocious animal spirits. But what should we do right now? Party on, of course. If it moves throw some money at it. Stocks have had a nice run and now real estate will soar once again to unimaginable heights - only NINAs will be left on the pier this time around.
 
Sam Eisemstadt is calling for U.S. equities to rise 10% in the next six months - whew that'd be fantastic. Dreman says the bull has years left - whew, that's even better.
 
I spoke with a Wells Fargo mortgage broker today about jumbo loans and he seems to think the banks are getting ready to drop their 20% down requirement to a 10% level - none of these banks are making any money in their mortgage depts. Better times a comin. You can't even get into the door if your credit score is under 740 for jumbo loans. He was duly impressed with my income stream and how I plan to keep it growing - bull tinky works wonders. I should be back in margin sweet territory by tomorrow. I was lamenting to the wife that I have dividends coming all month buying fewer shares as the market appreciates and she said the +$91K I made today should soothe my angst. She's right of course. Ferdinand is making me wealthy.
 
I done slain the bear this week. My oceanic results: -$3K, -$14K, +$2K, +$91K, +$58K for a handsome gain of +$134K. The VIX now at 10.78 -.90 is going to make many nervous. But fear not because the Fed won't raise interest rates for another 3-5 years, stocks the only game in town.
 
The clouds have parted and I'm now back in the margin saddle - we'll see if June can boost me into some serious buying happiness. There are still plenty of wonderful wall flowers looking for a home. I'm thinking if the market treats me right I may be able to borrow cash from my margin account rather than using a jumbo loan for property. There is no change of cash at the end of the month and margin rates are cheaper than mortgage rates and still deductable - this is going to be very interesting. Over the next several years I'll start paying my margin balance back with my capital gains. I don't believe interest rates will start going up until obama has been banished and crawls back intoi the hole he came out of. Businesses will continue to punish the you know what.
 
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