Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Since 1940 we've never had more than one 10% correction in a bull market, so it's unprecendeted that we've already had two - 2010 and 2011. This tells me that we may be in a very prolonged cyclical bull market inside our current mega trend secular bull market - and someday will bring a cyclical bear but not anytime soon while the Fed is in charge. I'm going to continue reinvesting my dividend income looking for golden prices and I'll utilize my margin buying power when the opportunity provides itself - my bull case this year is still an SPX of 2400. So if lower prices are in my future for the next several months - simply bring'em and I'll collect as many wall flowers as possibly.
 
We're getting close to 1850 once again - if we can break above 1850 that could open the clouds to retest the most recent high area of 1900. We could blast past 1850 before the close - so easy to do with so much liquidity. The small caps might even start bouncing back.
 
"The current correction in the averages and the growth sector is believed to represent an adjustment to a rising rate environment - not the end of the bull."

Can a bull run without growth leaders? - MarketWatch

The European inflation came it at +0.5% - Mario is going to pump big time. Why, because the 60 year Kress cycle is in its final year of descent. A final phase of deflationary pressure in the global economy can't be ruled out. Holding my 80 % I position.
 
I believe that Janet told us today that lower than normal interest rates will last for much longer than expected, at least into the later part of 2016. So once again the Fed has made it known that the stock market is the only place for the average person to get any potential significant gains over the next many years. So it's on and upward for even more margin debt - I simply gotta load up the truck.
 
Moo, it's a great time to be invested - thankyou Janet. Moo, tomorrow could be the return of uncharted territory for the SPX. Moo, I'm all in all the time. Moo, we could easily be setting up for a huge upside explosion. Moo, all girl cows love you Ferdinand.
 
Birchtree said:
Moo, it's a great time to be invested - thankyou Janet. Moo, tomorrow could be the return of uncharted territory for the SPX. Moo, I'm all in all the time. Moo, we could easily be setting up for a huge upside explosion. Moo, all girl cows love you Ferdinand.
Click to expand...

 
I've been patiently waiting to see a 200 point gap up on the Dow to unleash those animal spirits that will carry us much higher - so I guess as soon as Mario makes an ECB push for assets will be the catalyst. I know it will happen and will catch most of Wall Street and Main Street off guard - then you'll hear get me in at any price. I think 2016 is a very long time to wait to make any gains with fixed income - it's TINA time.
 
Birchtree said:
I've been patiently waiting to see a 200 point gap up on the Dow to unleash those animal spirits that will carry us much higher - so I guess as soon as Mario makes an ECB push for assets will be the catalyst. I know it will happen and will catch most of Wall Street and Main Street off guard - then you'll hear get me in at any price. I think 2016 is a very long time to wait to make any gains with fixed income - it's TINA time.
Click to expand...
Hey folks. I'm back. In time to see the S&P hit 1900. The time to invest is when there is blood in the streets." So said Warren Buffet, or Soros, or Louis Ruckheiser, or one of those dudes.
 
I had high hopes of making back the -$192K I lost last week, but alas it was not to be. Here is what happened the last four trading days: +$42K, +$37K, +$68K, +$27K for a gain of +$174K. I was up about +$46K before obama had his dreary new conference - the market knows he was telling us more lies. This dark man can never be trusted again. So next week we could be off to the races especially if Mario steps up to the liquidity plate and swings big with some QE over the weekend.
 
I said all last year that 2013 was like the party in 1995. Some are now seeing the light. "Many investors today seem to have forgotten - or simply weren't around for - the big bull market of the 1990s. During the entire decade, there wasn't a single bear market, a 20% slide in stocks from a peak. From 1990 through 1999 - when the internet stock bubble began to dominate the market - the S&P 500 more than tripled. Much of those gains came in the years from 1995 through the end of 1998, when the S&P 500 rose an average of 28% a year. The economic backdrop of the mid-1990s echoes today's. Like then we are in a post financial crisis period accompanied by a jobless, disinflationary recovery. If rates go up in line with improvement in the economy, that's a good market environment for stocks. " I jsut can't wait to make more gains. We have many more years of the bull market to run and my plan is to gather as many wall flowers as Ferdinand allows and make at least +$1M a year. Does that sound aggressive - well it's not, I'm just a simple buy and holder that will coast into the uncharted future.
 
I just locked in dividend increase announcement #60 - so I'm well on my way for more cost of living adjustments - that's how I look at these increases. In 2013 I had a total of 158 dividend increases and these dividends are qualified and therefore taxed at 15% - how great is that. Soon I should start seeing some stock splits as our bull continues to reach for higher highs - stock splits allow mom and pop an opportunity to get in selectively at lower pricing. Because we have slow economic growth the mega trend bull market can run on fumes.
 
From my WSJ: "Federal Reserve officials forecast growth at least through 2016, which would make the expansion the fourth longest since the Civil War. The Congressional Budget Office projects growth through at least 2017, or an expansion of 8 1/2 years; only the 1960s and 1990s booms ran so long. Corporate profits tend to peak years before recessions. In the 2000s, profits maxed out in mid-2006 and declined into the rrecession, which began in December 2007. In the 1990s, the peak came in 1997 and profits declined for 3 1/2 years before the recession hit. In the current recovery, profits have continued to climb. If boom must precede bust, as in the prior two expansions, no bust is in sight - precisely because growth has been so slow." How far this cyclical bull run inside our mega trend secular bull will run is an open question. I think we go for several decades.
 
A dash more from my WSJ: "The National Bureau of Economic Research judges that the U.S. economy began expanding again in June 2009, just over 58 months ago. That means the current stretch of growth in terms of duration, is poised to drift past the average for post World War II recoveries. The expansion last decade stretched for 73 months and then ended with a housing collapse and financial crisis. In the 1990s, growth continued for 10 years until the tech bubble burst. An oil embargo and sky-high energy prices ended the growth spell from 1970 to 1973." So what will the future bring - guess. I'm going to stay all in all the time, but I will do some garden harvesting as prices climb.
 
There should be no reason the hoofhearted can't pump this Dow puppy to 16,576.66 today before the close for a new all time high. Two hours is plenty of time to reach uncharted territory. I'm very close to getting more margin buying power once again and once I do I plan to chase Ferdinand all over the fields of clover. It's the sweet smell of superlative bull manure wafting across the board. I'm so greedy that I was thinking how nice it would be if my 1,247,377 thread views could be headed by $, that would satisfy me for 2014.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
745
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
382
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
200
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks continue to act well despite some obstacles
Replies
0
Views
98
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
26
Views
1K
evilanne
evilanne
Back
Top