Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
When no one else wants it is the time to acquire assets - I'll more than likely be buying more BTU myself. I'm not giving up on coal because there is global growth.
 
"As economist Ed Yardeni pointed out in a recent blog posting, Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate has been positive for the past four months through January, when it was 0.6% - that's still awfully low he writes, but it beats the 55 consecutive months of negative readings from January 2009 through July 2013."
 
Dennis,
Do you think ANR will make a comeback? I'm sitting at about 70% loss:sick: and these prices are very tempting.
 
I'm holding all of my coal stocks for better times - and I think there will be better times ahead. Once there is a leash put on the EPA they will rebound.
 
My oceanic account came out alright on this topsy turvy week: -$48K, +$119K, -$7K, +$39K, -$16K for a gain of +$87K. Now if the market would give me that for four weeks I'd have a +$348K gain for March. I did manage to buy some precious wall flowers this week and look forward to buying many more next week - margin is finally opening up and I will definitely leverage up the opportunity.
 
We currently have 342 guests visiting this morning and if anyone drops by my thread, this is my sound out to you. If you can't be persuaded to invest in stocks during a period of zero interest rates, low inflation, record corporate profits, pristine balance sheets, and cheap valuations, there's probably not much I can say to change your mind. If Wall Street is thinking about the next ten months, and you're thinking about the next ten years like me, case-closed - that's your advantage. To be fair, there is one positive to sitting in cash during the most disrespected bull market in history and it's this: if you reinvested those money market dividends each month, you will double your money in just 3,200 years. And just to prove that I'm not a total dreamer, I'm reminded that the final hard down phase of the 40 year and 60 year Kress cycles are upon us in perhaps 2014. So with the possibility of more deflation in the global economy the world is not purrfect. But you simply have to be in to win.
 
My WSJ is celebrating the 5 year birthday of Ferdinand - I'm sure there are going to be plenty of plums. So what should the hoofhearted do right now? Party on, of course. I did manage to spend +$100K last week buying some favorite wall flowers - if only I'm allowed to do that every week I would make some serious money. If we start to see a parabolic blow off top - well I'm all in for that glorious ride higher. My sacrificial lamb chop account is ready to face the music if the bears grab hold.
 
A quote from fib_1618. "The entire market is now at a trigger point where any pick up in buying is likely to send prices higher at an accelerated rate". Mom and Pop have missed the last five years but they are determined not to miss the next five years - it's just a matter of time.
 
Birchtree said:
A quote from fib_1618. "The entire market is now at a trigger point where any pick up in buying is likely to send prices higher at an accelerated rate". Mom and Pop have missed the last five years but they are determined not to miss the next five years - it's just a matter of time.
Click to expand...

Mom and Pop taste fine - for a while...
Just figuring on how long they will last...
 
A few quick gems from my WSJ. "Small investors, well known for poor market timing, are flocking back to stocks. (Flocking is OK but running would be better.) Does that mean it is time to sell? In 2013, investors put $172 billion into U.S. stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, according to fund tracker Lipper. Not accounting for inflation, that was the highest total since at least 1992, the earliest year for which Lipper has data. The trend worries some strategists, who argue that small investors are notorious for clamoring to buy just before a market top. An analysis of small-investor sentiment shows that the widely held belief is true, but perhaps not reliable enough to warrant any major buying or selling on its own."
 
And one more gem from my WSJ. "It's a feature of bull markets that the voices of caution gradually get drowned out completely by the growing chatter of the ticker tape and the ringing of cash registers. (Now don't forget the tendentious perma bull.) The bears look and sound more foolish, until they finally give up and fall silent completely. It's an old saw on Wall Street that the boom won't end until the last bear turns bullish. The issue is whether investors are adequately prepared for the very real possibility of disappointment. As ever, the wisest philosophy is to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." One reason I've been building my back door sacrificial lamb chop account - when the hit comes I've a way out.
 
I just realized that in the last 5 weeks my oceanic account has a gain +$377K - now if I could just keep the momentum going for another 5 weeks I'd be a happy camper. My goal for the year remains to come as close to a gain of +$3M as possible - you have to dream big in a bull market. I'll be spending margin money as fast as possible and that should help with my pyramiding. More margin is just around the next corner.
 
"Ralph Acampors believes that the bull market will continue to climb a wall of worry and move higher. He notes two characteristics of all bull markets, low inflation and low interest rates, which are still in place, Ralph also thinks the institutions are driving this market, and the public is not really in this market yet."
 
I have 17 dividends due for reinvestment today - so eas'er down into negative territory. There is always a reason to buy. I can wait patiently for my capital appreciation.
 
I'm fortunate in that I'm buying something every day with my dividends during this period of weakness - it's great as a long term strategy. The process repeats every three months and is building my income stream. There is always something positive to look forward to. Who knows if it will be a sell in May and go away for the summer - last year was great. It isn't unprecedented for the stock market to fly in the face of the poor seasonal odds and rise during the summer months. July 2013 was a +$308K month and September 2013 was a +$280K - so I'm staying to play all summer.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm fortunate in that I'm buying something every day with my dividends during this period of weakness - it's great as a long term strategy. The process repeats every three months and is building my income stream. There is always something positive to look forward to. Who knows if it will be a sell in May and go away for the summer - last year was great. It isn't unprecedented for the stock market to fly in the face of the poor seasonal odds and rise during the summer months. July 2013 was a +$308K month and September 2013 was a +$280K - so I'm staying to play all summer.
Click to expand...

How are you leveraged?
 
I use my margin leverage to buy primarily even lots and am currently leveraged up to my nostrils and plan to get in further up to my eye brows. The more you have in the more potential to win. And the good thing about leverage is that the interest rate is tax deductable against ordinary income. Margin provides me the opportunity to pyramid my gains without taking profits and paying taxes. There is of course risks inherent in using other peoples money and if and when the margin calls arrive I have my sacrificial lamb chop account to place on the rails - until that time everyting is working in a bull market. The plan is to accumulate as many assets as I'm capable of buying - so far there has been no cap placed on my borrowing. Another advantage of margin is it provides access to cash when needed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
745
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
380
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
200
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks continue to act well despite some obstacles
Replies
0
Views
96
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
26
Views
1K
evilanne
evilanne
Back
Top