Birchtree's Account Talk

[rcknfrewld]

Birch, please say dollar cost averaging again in a slightly deeper, raspier voice this time

 

[pyriel]

hi birch... good to see you...

 

[Birchtree]

Big stocks tend to outperform during the back half of bull markets. Bull markets are fueled by successive waves of prior skeptics finally capitulating as their fears fade. Eventually fear turns to euphoria, and that's the stuff of bubbles. I want some bubbles, but we're a long way from that now. We had our best January since 1994 and perhaps we'll get our best September since 1994. 2013 is probably going to end like 1982 - with a panic buying boom.

 

[Birchtree]

Please stand clear of all exhaust pipes because we are going to have a whopper of a move once this tension on the tape is released. The trend of strength may just be getting started. Another bright spot on the immediate horizon is the mid-cap stocks hitting all time highs. I can feel the rumble and hear the thunderous clang of hooves sending the Dow to 16,000 and beyond.

 

[Dutchy]

Birchtree....Please stand clear of all exhaust pipes because we are going to have a whopper of a move once this tension on the tape is released. The trend of strength may just be getting started. Another bright spot on the immediate horizon is the mid-cap stocks hitting all time highs. I can feel the rumble and hear the thunderous clang of hooves sending the Dow to 16,000 and beyond.

You've got that right Birch! No taper at this time... Bull Market going forward!

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is dropping like a rock to 13.54 -0.99 on its way to under 12 again. Today could be a +300 point Dow move once Bernanke is finished talking. Low readings on the Vix index traded between 10 and 20 for the better part of the bull market that unfolded between 2003 and 2007 - that means low values don't always translate into imminent selloffs.

 

[Cattman]

Approaching Warp speed, let's see the other side of the galaxy.

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, I was just thinking we've achieved escape velocity and now less energy will be required to reach higher highs.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Yes, I was just thinking we've achieved escape velocity and now less energy will be required to reach higher highs.

Still an hour to go. When investors in this hour, understand the extent of this market, they will jump in for some real fun. SPX 1750 by the end of trading today. The I fund is nice today.

 

[EricDeLee]

Still an hour to go. When investors in this hour, understand the extent of this market, they will jump in for some real fun. SPX 1750 by the end of trading today. The I fund is nice today.

Wish I had made my IFT yesterday. I did it today, so I guess my 17% in I fund will get today's higher price. Oh well. Just trying to capture some magic

 

[Birchtree]

Yes gentle bulls we are in another mega trend secular bull market that is going to last for years and years. We have an improving economy and stock market that nobody wants to believe in. Economists are too pessimistic and investors and portfolio managers are largely on the sidelines. From a contrarian point of view, this provides a bullish setup in the market in a stark contrast to the 2000 and 2007 tops when the skies were the limit and sentiment was overly optimistic. This market could absolutely explode to the upside tomorrow - no way to catch the wave. I like making big money.

 

[JTH]

My current projections show the yearly high to be 1730-1740

Have not re-evaluated prices yet.

 

[Birchtree]

The SPX is now on electroglide and requires less energy expenditure to reach higher highs - 1740 is gone today. Now all we have to do is wait on the great rotation out of bonds and into equities. Secular bulls don't end until they bloom into a popular speculative mania that pulls in normal everyday non-investors heading into the climax - we got a long way to go yet. I'm going to enjoy trail blazing into uncharted territory - it's a purrfect time to be greedy. Third waves are the point of recognition for the masses, and tend to be strong trending waves that rarely let up for very long.

 

[sstasel]

Saw these birch tree images and thought of you!

 

[Birchtree]

When an average makes a new high and that high is confirmed by a new high in the number of 52-week highs, the breadth of the market advance, the health of the average stock is deemed worthy. With October starting the seasonally strong best months of the year there seems to be nothing but clear sailing ahead. For the good of America, I hope this glorious beat down of the dollar continues a little longer. We can really party now like it's 1995. Just keep that 50-day exponential moving average on your computer screen and remember that all selling above this level is just noise in what is still a more bullish environment. I believe now that insiders know that Obama is toast and the economy will be released from his regulatory chains.

 

[coastalite]

in each of the secular bull markets of the last 110 years, the Dow has gained 500% to 1000% - so I'm going to be buying wall flowers for decades. Trying to 'see' very meaningful change prior to that change becoming a mainstream perception is something almost akin to the Holy Grail in investment management. Perhaps Yellen is the proper catalyst to keep the bull stampeding longer.

Do you think if things get ugly, politicians might try to confiscate TSP retirement accounts and/or private ROTH/IRA retirement accounts? If you don't believe it's a possibility, Google it. Politicians are already looking at both Federal and Private retirement accounts (especially those of the wealthy) and are salivating over all the money just sitting there - should the USA one day be unable to pay it's debts and obligations. I'm just sayin'... it's already being looked at.

 

[Birchtree]

Any confiscation of private funds would undoubtedly result in many dead politicians. The American population is well armed for a reaqson. If you have a defined benefit retirement plan that money is not yours but rather a promise. An annuity can be reduced. All America needs is adult leadership....

 

[Birchtree]

Money makes the world go around and I need much more spin. From an investment perspective, more QE3 will probably trigger an even more massive rally in global stocks and commodities. How long will I have to be patient before SPX 1800 arrives. Adding 20 points a month rings it up real quick.

 

[jpcavin]

Nice gain there, Mr Tree.

 

[Weather]

Do you think if things get ugly, politicians might try to confiscate TSP retirement accounts and/or private ROTH/IRA retirement accounts? If you don't believe it's a possibility, Google it. Politicians are already looking at both Federal and Private retirement accounts (especially those of the wealthy) and are salivating over all the money just sitting there - should the USA one day be unable to pay it's debts and obligations. I'm just sayin'... it's already being looked at.

This is my biggest fear. I'm drawing a military pension and contributing 15% to TSP. Stashing away the max to a Roth IRA for my wife and I. I realize there's no guarantee the pension, FERS, SS and TSP will be there for our golden years.