Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Put simply, this bull is hated, and stock investors should like that. The fewer visible bulls the better Ferdinand likes it. The ability to be contrarian is what separates investing luck from skill. Luck comes and goes, skill sticks with you. The psychology out there is that the public remains wary of everything that burned them over the past few years. I've put all that pain behind me - there's a new secular bull market in equities. We're out of the trading range we've been in since 2000.

 

[Birchtree]

My current projections show the yearly high to be 1730-1740

Those projections could be breached by the end of September - usually our worst month.

 

[Birchtree]

A 10% correction comes around every once each 2 years, and we can count on three consolidations of 5% over the same period. We may have completed our last 5% down for the year as we roll higher into the holiday season. The risk now is getting left behind once more - buy the future - it's bright.

 

[NavyEng]

Those projections could be breached by the end of September - usually our worst month.

September can be a good month. S fund gained 11.47% in 2010. But, it lost 10.73% in 2011.

 

[Birchtree]

I have belabored the point for several months that I expected to see multiple triple digit days with increasing volume and it resisted my attention - until now. We could see panic buying the next three days as we are in the point of recognition of wave 3,3,3. Be in to win.

 

[Birchtree]

Hurry, get the buckets in place because I'm going to sh*t nickels if we get another triple digit close on the day. The transports are ready to jump to a new all time high.

 

[Dutchy]

Are we looking at a S&P 1710 top again here soon, Birch ?? Maybe early next week? Oh, and go Gators! I know they can snap back from the Miami loss !

 

[Birchtree]

Money makes the world go 'round and there is plenty of it around wanting a 15% tax rate - so let the great rotation continue. Maybe the market sees improvement coming in ways we just can't understand at this time. There are trillions of dollars parked in bonds, that if moved into equities could make 16,000 happen in the blink of an eye, and 17,00 and higher all too easy to accomplish. I'm staying the course - fundamental investors will normally ride out a consolidation or even a 10% correction in a bull market while a technician will get stopped out, having then to buy back at higher prices. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Betula papyrifera is my name and mucho greed is my game. The amount of money that's playing defensive is astronomical, Main Street isn't yet in Wall Street. It is still scared to death. In the past couple of years, the professional money with Birchtree started to flow in. This is just the beginning of new flows that will push indexes even higher. Based on history, with interest rates this low, stocks have room to climb nearly 100% from today's level - now that is greedy. Remember from a longer term perspective low interest rates and low inflation are like rocket fuel for the stock market - catch the wave. I believe that primary wave 3 is now in the middle of Major 3 of 5 Major waves. An 1800 SPX is just around the corner and a Dow of 29,774 in the next 4 years. Our 2013 bull market equates to 1982 - one of the most powerful bull runs ever. Tom is talking about the total put call ratio of the 21 day moving average and if it is close to 0.90 this will signal a massive buy signal, calling for a 100 point rise in SPX - there goes my greed again. C'mon bring it to me.

 

[Birchtree]

Sky rockets in flight, give me more afternoon delight - a song from the middle 1970s. It looks like I'm in the permabull cheering section today.

Why Sonders Likes the U.S. over EMs | The Guru Investor

"I think that what started in March of 2009 was the beginning of the next secular bull market that we are in the middle of right now."

 

[Birchtree]

The Stoxx Europe 600 index at 310.88, marking the highest close since June 2008. You should see the nickels all over my place. This has been the least respected bull market in history. The best thing possible for the bull to continue.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

... I believe that primary wave 3 is now in the middle of Major 3 of 5 Major waves.

An 1800 SPX is just around the corner and a Dow of 29,774 in the next 4 years...

Ooh! You're speaking my language! I see that you're really a technician at heart, BT.

Does that mean that your specific projection of 29,774 is based on your analysis for wave 5 completion?

Inquiring minds want to know...

 

[Birchtree]

Currently I'm only $26K away from opening up margin - the last two times I've advanced to get close I was pushed back into the briar patch. When I'm finally liberated the plan is to dig my hole as deep as the margin girls will allow - I want to be fully leveraged since I have no fear of being buried alive. The potential to throw money at the market could be limitless as long as I sail under the radar and keep my sacrificial lamb chop account up to par - I'm prepared to spend several $M as I run the tracks in front of the Grand Trunk.

 

[Birchtree]

The Dow is currently unchanged as I continue to sweep up nickels from yesterday. What is interesting is that the Dow has never posted 4 days in a row of triple digit gains - now wouldn't it be exceptional if we blast up from here for another triple digit gain. I don't mind sweeping up nickels but it is a hassel taking them to the bank. Let's really put the pressure on the shorts today and create a runaway rally that only the few can catch. A new nominal high for the Dow is simply the continuation of one of the most powerful bull markets in history - don't play on the tracks unless you can move with speed.

 

[OBXTrader]

Hi Birchtree - You posted on my account talk as I stepped off the tracks. Watch the 3rd rail.

I was one day early based on yesterday's results as it's tough to pick tops and bottoms. With no ability to contribute to my TSP, unless I am buy and hold I have to chose entries and exits, right? If the market dumps today which it seems like it wants to do, I am genius. If bulls run, then I am wrong, but still sitting on my profits and it's only opportunity cost from here forward, right?

The Dow is currently unchanged as I continue to sweep up nickels from yesterday. What is interesting is that the Dow has never posted 4 days in a row of triple digit gains - now wouldn't it be exceptional if we blast up from here for another triple digit gain. I don't mind sweeping up nickels but it is a hassel taking them to the bank. Let's really put the pressure on the shorts today and create a runaway rally that only the few can catch. A new nominal high for the Dow is simply the continuation of one of the most powerful bull markets in history - don't play on the tracks unless you can move with speed.

 

[Birchtree]

Opportunity costs can be painful. I remember years ago I got out of AKS too early with a nice profit but eventually left +$120K on the darn table. The market does offer the potential to heal all wounds if one is patient.

 

[Birchtree]

The scent wafting through this thread used to be the sweet smell of superlative bull manure, but now there seems to be an addition mixing in. Well that's OK.

 

[OBXTrader]

I will turn on the exhaust fan Birchtree.

My balance is higher now than had I not sold my mutual funds and TSP two days ago, so I live to invest another day without regrets. No dip buyers late, rising VIX, falling gold, 10 year spiking up, hmmmm. Is someone herding us towards cattle guards?

Now that I have all money consolidated, it's putting it to work on my terms.

The scent wafting through this thread used to be the sweet smell of superlative bull manure, but now there seems to be an addition mixing in. Well that's OK.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Betula papyrifera is my name and mucho greed is my game. The amount of money that's playing defensive is astronomical, Main Street isn't yet in Wall Street. It is still scared to death. In the past couple of years, the professional money with Birchtree started to flow in. This is just the beginning of new flows that will push indexes even higher. Based on history, with interest rates this low, stocks have room to climb nearly 100% from today's level - now that is greedy. Remember from a longer term perspective low interest rates and low inflation are like rocket fuel for the stock market - catch the wave. I believe that primary wave 3 is now in the middle of Major 3 of 5 Major waves. An 1800 SPX is just around the corner and a Dow of 29,774 in the next 4 years. Our 2013 bull market equates to 1982 - one of the most powerful bull runs ever. Tom is talking about the total put call ratio of the 21 day moving average and if it is close to 0.90 this will signal a massive buy signal, calling for a 100 point rise in SPX - there goes my greed again. C'mon bring it to me.

Wow!! This would be awesome! But do you think a major correction will happen this year?? Yes I know that seems a dumb question but I gotta ask!

 

[rcknfrewld]

the ol'sport is knee deep dreaming right now, but I think he would welcome the golden prices that would accompany a major correction similar to the blip of 2008...see, the market always makes new highs,eventually...and yes 2008 was just another bump in the road just like 1987 was...so long as you don't sell and keep on buying...a long term major collapse would just be shrugged off, for the rewards are meant for the next generation of little birch's anyway...the time to buy is now, the time to sell is never...besides it just feels better being an optimist...doesn't feel quite right rooting against the market