Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Thanx for the kind words. There is a lot of market history out there and sometimes it rhymes but not often. Every cycle seems to be different and that requires knowledge of the past as well as new facts for the future. I'm invested for life and my portfolio will continue to grow even when I'm gone - that's the benefit of the step up in basis strategy of tax policy. But while I'm still around my objective is to be aggressive and make as much of an income stream as reasonable. I'm retired and everything I have is risk oriented with discipline. This may be my generational moment and I'm swinging hard. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

To see multiple strongly positive breadth days is a sign that there is a lot of money standing in line waiting to get through the door. Let'em in, please. We are having a strong week for market bulls. There is a tremendous amount of money still trapped out of stocks and anxiety is building to get in - capitulate and throw in the towel. Don't keep waiting for any massive climactic sell off because it ain't coming - you must chase and buy now.

 

[jpcavin]

you must chase and buy now.

Or as Barry would say, "the time to act is now!" :toung:

 

[Birchtree]

Hi Judy,

In a bull market one should always buy the dips. Big fear spikes soon after major tops are a signature bull market consolidation behavior. The SPX could be ready to stage a multi-month rally and if it does dollars go into my pocket. I'm waiting on the I fund to make my ears bleed and give my tugboat a much needed boost.

 

[GUCHI]

i'm with you on the I fund. my REAL TSP account has been buying I fund for years. i figured it would have to turn my way eventually but in the meantime buy them while they are cheap.

Hi Judy,

In a bull market one should always buy the dips. Big fear spikes soon after major tops are a signature bull market consolidation behavior. The SPX could be ready to stage a multi-month rally and if it does dollars go into my pocket. I'm waiting on the I fund to make my ears bleed and give my tugboat a much needed boost.

 

[jpcavin]

I'm waiting on the I fund to make my ears bleed and give my tugboat a much needed boost.

My allocation is spread out between CSI but I've been contributing to I Fund behind the scenes...

 

[Birchtree]

I must confess that I'm addicted to equities and nervous with excitement - I bought some RRTS to DCA my position. Holy mackeral Andy, I might be lookin at a +$100K day for my oceanic account. I can't be proud at a moment like this treading into uncharted territory - I feel like I'm on a LRRP mission.

 

[Birchtree]

"Put simply, this bull is hated, and stock investors should like that. The ability to be contrarian is what separates investing luck from skill. Luck comes and goes; skill sticks with you."

How the market

 

[Birchtree]

Market Has Rebuilt Bullish Base | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

Should economic data show signs of improvement over the next several years, the S&P 500 may post a rally similar to the bull market that started in 1982, when the index advanced 229%, or the one in 1990, when it surged 302%. I believe we are now up +150% since the March '09 lows. I'm certain we have more room to run and pocket more delicious gains.

 

[jpcavin]

It sure is a good day to be in equities!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I just checked the tracker and I'm #404 with a +8.06% - got some catchin up to do. There is plenty of time yet with my 20C/80I position. No need to change anything - Europe is getting ready to explode and the small caps will trend lower for a few months giving me plenty of opportunity to move up with The Jeffersons.

Job well done, Birch. It's not easy to sit still while bullets whiz around you. Those that have held steay this year (such as yourself) have reaped the rewards.

Alas, markets change from time to time. What will you be looking for to prevent you from suffering a market sell-off like the one we saw from 2000-2002, or from 2007-2009... or worse? Or are you going to hang tough through thick and thin?

Perhaps that's a silly question for a perma-bull. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

We do have the long term Kress cycles bearing down for 2014 - but I'll wait and see. Having a good income stream helps protect my lifestyle so I can ride out most serious down trends. I'll be pulling some cash aside when margin opens up just in case my sacrificial lamb chop account is not sufficient to prevent disaster. I always work best from the bottom of the well.

 

[Birchtree]

"The psychology out there is that the public remains wary of everything that burned them over the past few years." I say no reason to be in a hurry - take your time.

Ritholtz: Shut off the TV and Think Long Term | The Guru Investor

 

[Birchtree]

"There's a new secular bull market in equities. We're out of the trading range we've been in since 2000."

It

 

[EricDeLee]

I almost changed my IFT to 20-S and 80-I... just off the comments below an reading a bit more. I stuck to my guns and decided to keep my foothold in the S funds.
J still made a good jump today, so I guess I can't complain.

 

[JTH]

An old retired friend of mine contacted me, to ask me what TSP allocation he should choose. When people out of the loop get in the loop, the end is near...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

BT, how close are you to getting your margin raised?

 

[Birchtree]

I'm so close to margin availability I can actually smell it. Today I'm spending some accumulated cash and buying: F, MT, VLO, KOL, GBX. When the margin opens up I plan to buy all the way into bankruptcy or happiness which ever comes first. You can't be shy in a momentum market like this one - pedal to the metal.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Do you have to increase your sacrificial lamb account to accommodate the additional margin?