Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Darn, I was hoping today would be on the soft side allowing my truck load of dividends to buy shares cheaper. But I can't be proud at a moment like this so I'll take the fate that the market delivers. We're likely going to have a strong July and I'll be happy with that - gets me closer to margin availability and more buying power.
 
I bought some: AXLL, KEY and RF today as a holiday gift to myself - only dollar cost averaging to my greed factor.
 
Birchtree said:
I bought some: AXLL, KEY and RF today as a holiday gift to myself - only dollar cost averaging to my greed factor.
Click to expand...

I like and own Key as well as HBAN. I'm looking to pick up shares of both once they pull back a little bit. The regionals have been pumped up in the media lately.
 
I'm so bored today - here is a snap shot of my dividend reinvestments for the day: BDC, BIP, DDR, JCI, LG, POL, BXS, CNQ. Keep'in the money workin.
 
My banks are hot today but some of my housing positions are being torched so I'm buying: KBH, BZH, PHM. It's an opportunity for golden pricing.
 
For a short week there were no great shakes but the oceanic did close positive: +$57K, -$14K, -$6K, +$65K for a pleasing gain of +$102K. Next week has the potential to be colossal in scope - I can hardly wait as I approach margin buying capacity.
 
The sell off in bonds on Friday "sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to a 23-month high at 2.72%. As a result, the yield curve, as defined by the difference between the two year and 10-year yields, steepened. Historically, a steeper yield curve has indicated bond investors expect stronger economic growth. The market environment that lately has arisen bears some resemblance to 1994, when the Fed began raising rates after a long hiatus. It was a horrible year for bond investors, with Treasurys falling sharply, but stocks ended the year essentially flat. At the start of 1994, the 10-year yielded 5.83% and closed out the year at 7.84%." Remember now, 1995 was a year to party and 2014 will also be strong - stay invested. Time in the market can often be more rewarding than timing the market. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
The sell off in bonds on Friday "sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to a 23-month high at 2.72%. As a result, the yield curve, as defined by the difference between the two year and 10-year yields, steepened. Historically, a steeper yield curve has indicated bond investors expect stronger economic growth. The market environment that lately has arisen bears some resemblance to 1994, when the Fed began raising rates after a long hiatus. It was a horrible year for bond investors, with Treasurys falling sharply, but stocks ended the year essentially flat. At the start of 1994, the 10-year yielded 5.83% and closed out the year at 7.84%." Remember now, 1995 was a year to party and 2014 will also be strong - stay invested. Time in the market can often be more rewarding than timing the market. Snort.
Click to expand...

Concur to some extent...

We will not see official FED rates rise this year. I think we will see interest rates rise to their proper place - folks must act on the FED pulling the training wheels off President Obama's Economic Bicycle now rather than later. I think the Administration's delay (probably a kill shot) of the Employer Mandate - and the coming 'delay' of the Individual Mandate - speaks to the issue of an increasing cash crunch for the Federal Government. So, me thinks that we are in for multiple years of horrible bond investing...

Does that mean stocks will continue to climb?

I will bet on it and have. Killing ObamaCare will boom the market. Businesses were - and still are - adjusting to that drag. Even ones with health insurance. Did you know that is some slug with employer health insurance (or has that option) got insurance via the Individual Exchange than the business was fined. I would, however, like to see a much simpler and market oriented health insurance overhaul. Like making it a tax write-off regardless of who pays for it, like allowing me to buy insurance from out of state vendors, like allowing me out of Medicare (and, while we are at it, allowing me out of Social Security), etc...

In the end, equities will climb to their proper spot. The market was a little frothy in 2007, but not excessively so. I was expecting a 15% correction, and that was probably in the cards. Then we had a debt crisis and the cards were thrown under the table. The market should probably be around 2,000 now. That would be a nice bump, eh...

The Black Swan on the perch. Who knows what the retrenching of Federal, State, and City spending and employment will do to the overall economy. My guess is nothing much. Long term it will be quite good. We should get back to what we must do and what we do well.
 
Ferdinand says this 2013 bull market equates to 1982 - one of the most powerful bull runs ever. The perma-bull cheering section has been eerily quiet as widespread apathy is evident. Just the way we like it. If you can't be persuaded to invest in stocks during a period of zero interest rates, low inflation, record corporate profits, pristine balance sheets and cheap valuations, there's probably not much I can say to change your mind. What should you do right now, party on of course.
 
I'm going to chase Ferdinand today because I can't stanz it no more - buying: TEX, IVZ, NBR, GT, ETH, WGO. So few dollars and so many sweet wall flowers that desire my attention. If the market makes a new high today I may return for a few more purchases. Snort.
 
I just checked the tracker and I'm #404 with a +8.06% - got some catchin up to do. There is plenty of time yet with my 20C/80I position. No need to change anything - Europe is getting ready to explode and the small caps will trend lower for a few months giving me plenty of opportunity to move up with The Jeffersons.
 
Birchtree said:
I just checked the tracker and I'm #404 with a +8.06% - got some catchin up to do. There is plenty of time yet with my 20C/80I position. No need to change anything - Europe is getting ready to explode and the small caps will trend lower for a few months giving me plenty of opportunity to move up with The Jeffersons.
Click to expand...
At #150 and a 50S/50I, I do want to see a pop soon, it's long overdue!
 
Birchtree - Reading your posts for quite a while is one reason why I jumped into the pool and joined TSP Talk this past weekend, thanks. I have an account talk, maybe one day I will have something worth sharing with others.

Need an optimist like you to balance out the saver/conservative investor in me (not a bear). I will not reap the rewards of this week in TSP since I went 100%G on Friday, but my IRA is smiling. I have never lost money in G.......... and I have one IFT (and to G if you count that).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
739
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
377
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
197
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
25
Views
1K
nasa1974
nasa1974
tsptalk
  • Article Article
If there is a wall of worry out there, stocks are clearly still climbing it
Replies
1
Views
147
nasa1974
nasa1974
Back
Top