Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

What will I do next time. The question I have is whether the same stoic approaches that I took in 2000-2003 and 2008-2009, remaining fully invested and buying what was cheap, that resulted in what still is market-beating performance can work yet again. It's the same old story - bear markets create bargains - often lots of bargains, keep a shopping list just in case.

 

[Birchtree]

The Fed won

 

[Birchtree]

Today I reached the 90th dividend increase announcement - dividends do carry some punch. I only have one dividend paying today but have 14 due Monday - so I'm at the mercy of the bull. Anytime I can get golden prices I'm happy. The income stream is getting stronger as time progresses and that's my current objective especially if increases continue. Remember, dividends can be forever. How we close today will determine if this is week #4 on the weak side - too early to tell yet. This bull can smoke the bears at any moment.

 

[Birchtree]

It was a lumpy week for my oceanic account: +$4K, -$79K, -$49K, +$120K, -$48K for a devaluation of -$52K. That leaves me with a give back of -$170K for the last four weeks - not really that bad when all things are considered. The second half of 2013 should be very profitable. As a matter of fact the next several weeks of June may look better.

 

[Birchtree]

"Investors world-wide in recent weeks have been nervously watching the Abe-Kuroda duo - copilots of an aggressive economic stimulus strategy dubbed 'Abenomics.' Many Japanese policy makers and economists say that for all the market turmoil, the economy is progressing nicely. Gross domestic product increased at an annualized rate of 4.1% in the first quarter, the highest among advanced ecionomies."

 

[Birchtree]

If you own housing stocks today, your pants are on fire. I'll hold mine for a multi-year run.

 

[Birchtree]

"When it comes to equity investing, you buy the future."

Why we favor Europe over the U.S. - MarketWatch

 

[Mcqlives]

Did you perchance branch out and start "Birchbox.com". If not, your almost-trademarked name got partially infringed on!

 

[Birchtree]

No fear here from the Fed. A new multi-decade Supercycle bull market is in motion and will not be stopped. The good news is that I have 14 dividends due today - the bad news is that prices are exploding and I'll end up with fewer shares. Well you can't win them all. If you can't be persuaded to invest in stocks during a period of zero interest rates, low inflation, record corporate profits, pristine balance sheets and cheap valuations, there's probably not much I can say to change your mind. Buy long and stay strong - fortunes can be made for the courageous.

 

[markmars]

No fear here from the Fed. A new multi-decade Supercycle bull market is in motion and will not be stopped. The good news is that I have 14 dividends due today - the bad news is that prices are exploding and I'll end up with fewer shares. Well you can't win them all. If you can't be persuaded to invest in stocks during a period of zero interest rates, low inflation, record corporate profits, pristine balance sheets and cheap valuations, there's probably not much I can say to change your mind. Buy long and stay strong - fortunes can be made for the courageous.

Real Estate is still a good investment today as well.

 

[Birchtree]

Not to be tendentious but Richard Bernstein says the 2013 bull market equates to 1982 - one of the most powerful bull runs ever. "The current bull market might be one of the strongest of our careers, and could potentially rival the 1980s bull market." How about a Dow of 29,774 in 4 years. Based on history, with interest rates this low, stocks have room to climb nearly 100% from today's levels.

 

[Birchtree]

The yearly high for the Dow was at 15,409 and we could conceivably see that again real soon - like today. Laszlo Birinyi says a current and careful review of the historical data suggests that the bull market would still have a long way to go if and when the dow reaches a new all-time high. Keep despairing guys, the more nonbelievers the better for the bull to continue.

 

[rcknfrewld]

hey birch I might get my 15.00 I fund price by weeks end:cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

Today was one of those quick, frightening retracements that happen during bull markets - it don't mean a thing. The bond market however is sending a message that the economy may be getting stronger - that's the big fear going forward. I never go near the negative oriented bond market because I get the willies. COB I'm still ahead +$3K on the week so we'll see if I get slammed or not as we approach Friday.

 

[alevin]

That's our Birch, steady as she goes. I'm working on my div grow strategy for part of the outside accounts, learning a little more every day.

 

[Birchtree]

We are seeing that old terminal panic velocity selloff and it may end soon. Big money is pushing for cheaper prices - I'm just going to ride the cycle like I usually do. Golden prices are always a blessing when building an income stream. The housing numbers are looking good and confidence will be restored.

 

[Birchtree]

I have dividends due every trading day through the end of the month - so for sure bring on the pain, the more the better. This consolidation is an opportunity because dividends are for eternity. All my dividends currently are being reinvested to buy more golden shares and increase my income levels. I've made a lot of money since the March '09 bottom and plan to make much more in the next ten years - staying bullish all the way. I just wish I could get some margin buying power but will probably have to wait until July.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX at 19.24 is telling me to buy some more gold - so I did: GFI.

 

[Birchtree]

I'll be in the market when the Fed ends QE in 2014 and I'll be in the market in 2015 when rates start increasing and I'll still be in the market when the GDP hits 5%. I remember in the early 1980s when we had 5% inflation, 5% GDP, and 5% Fed funds rate and the equity markets did just fine. In 2014 I'll start taking some capital gains and reinvesting them along with my dividends. Stocks will always be the place to be - holding long and strong. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Folks, this consolidation is nothing compared to what we've experienced in the past. In the fall of 2011 the action looked like this: -634, +429, -521, +423, +126 - so this week is light. We are actually experiencing a bull market phenomenon. The bus travels faster with fewer on board. If I had an extra $300K in reserve I'd spend it all today.