Birchtree's Account Talk

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JimmyJoe said:
I take it you don't like reading his posts. Is that why you are #800 on the hit parade?
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Wow, that's all I will say as I place you on my ignore list. Have a great life!

P.S. BTW, I like reading his posts, but HIS posts aren't offensive.
 
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Don't worry Jimmy Joe I've always found that being on an ignore list was a solemn tribute to contrarianism. I'm still on several myself that I know of - perhaps some I don't. Their loss not mine. If you know how markets work, perception is often more powerful than reality. That is, when the market perceives that an economic recovery is just graduating to that elusive growth stage, that's when stocks make their moves. It's not too late yet for all to catch the rampaging bull. This market is rallying partially because it recognizes that Obama is not only a lame duck but also lame - he'll cause no more damage to the economy.
 
Hoofers we are climbing that old proverbial wall of worry because many economists and hedge fund managers do not believe in the recovery and still hold perhaps 50 percent cash, awaiting a correction, which may never come this year. Earnings and GDP figures will slowly improve and equity markets will strengthen well into this fall and spring of 2014. I need to scare up a couple of bullish reads to ease this tight gut of mine - no fear but no complacency either. It's going to be a long time before the yield curve is inverted again.
 
From my WSJ. "With the Federal Reserve promising more bond-buying until the jobless rate hits 6.5%, investors are expecting a super-accommodative Fed through well into 2014. Inflation has also stayed under control, due in part to the relatively strong dollar and slower growth in Europe and other parts of the world.

Our guess is that the economy is also benefitting from the arrival of what might be a more durable gridlock in Washington. (I damn well knew it). Earlier this year, President Obama was able to rout the GOP on taxes, and it looked like he might be able to extract even more antigrowth policies. But his sequester bluff failed, and federal spending is being cut for the first time in nearly two decades. The House GOP seems united against further tax increases except as a part of a tax reform that reduced tax rates. This gridlock isn't as benign as the Gingrich-Clinton version in the late 1990s, but at least it promises less policy damage than we've witnessed in the last four years. (Only 44 months left to dangle)

Left to its own devises, the U.S. economy will grow as individuals and businesses try to improve their lot and expand. The tragedy of the last four years is that Washington tried to supplant or interfere with those decisions with a wave of regulation, spending, and taxation. With the exception of new regulation, and the uncertainty over the ultimate cost of unwinding the Fed's interventions, the potential for new harm from Washington has eased. The more it eases, the more private hiring and higher wages we are likely to see."
 
I just know this is coming down the pike and I'm pleazingly positioned for action. "Rallies and bubbles tend to last far longer and grow much larger than most anyone expects. Periods of cheap money policy, low interest rates and sharp increases in money supply have always resulted in bubbles. Since the rally began, there have been very few true believers. (Just look around the board). Like generals who tend to fight the last war, investors fail to adjust to what the market gives them. All bubbles are marked by a euphoric period when almost all investors (including my friends RMI and amoeba) are drawn in. It's when fear and greed, the two most powerful market forces, are working together. Greed brings many investors in. Fear of missing out brings in the rest. The rational person would naturally expect the resulting bubble to be bigger and last even longer." The time to get nervous is when nobody's nervous. You should know the chances of returning to a state of extreme bubble dynamics in stocks does in fact exist moving forward. It means stocks are most likely going higher, possibvly much higher into uncharted territory. If extreme bubble like conditions were ever to return it would mean money coming out of a very large bond bubble is looking for a new home, who knows how ridiculous stock valuations could get and how stinky wealthy I could get. This is going to be my reality going forward. Snort.
 
I would dearly like to see futures explode tonight with a large gap up Monday morning - that would be classic. Waiting on that third white soldier.
 
Bill Miller says: "The outlook for both the stock market and the economy is considerably better than the consensus forecasts. There ought to be strong returns in U.S. equities this year. I don't think that the risks are anywhere near as great as what the consensus believes. I'm very bullish on certain financial stocks, saying that some still have 40% to 50% of upside left in them." The transports are strong this morning - a harbinger for a good day?
 
financials are on fire today..... Belly full of BAC....looking for some good entry points for C and JPM
 
Why have I utilized my time to build my Birchtree 300 account? My objective has been to have enough money in each position so when I have a great up move that will be greatly rewarded, but at the same time, in the event of negative news I am not over committed to any one position. A delicate balance, if you will, of my investment dollars with the number of positions I own. I like to buy a particular stock and let the market come to me and that strategy may take several years to result in fruition. I never buy with the idea to make fast money - anytime I've made fast money is because I was sitting on the position when the rampaging bulls rompt in my direction. I've actually made most of my gains by sitting still.
 
Birchtree said:
I would dearly like to see futures explode tonight with a large gap up Monday morning - that would be classic. Waiting on that third white soldier.
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Greedy profit-takers spoiled a perfect set-up for the triple-triple. What a shame. I guess they'll have to be punished with a slow, painful, grind up the mounting wall of worry.
 
Every positive day gets me closer to my margin availability - then I'm obligated to chase Ferdinand into the deep clover for years to come. With each positive breadth plurality we have on the NYSE from this juncture means new all time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD as well. The importance of which is that these new highs tells us that there hasn't been anytime in history of the U.S. markets when liquidity has been as high at it is right now. Keep the bull tinky flowing. Remember, the cheaper the yen, the more attractive Japanese companies become in the global sphere. Stocks are as cheap on a forward earnings basis as they have been since 1995 - and that was a year to really party with the bulls.
 
The Nikkei is now ahead +36% for ytd - be sure you are right and then go ahead with your moves into the I fund. The earlier you can get on board with a trend, the more money you can make, focusing your investments on big trends is a big leg up in your quest for investment success.
 
If we rally further from here, how many are gpoin to watch from the sidelines in fear of going in at the top. The most important thing right now is that the A/D line is not diverting and holds above support of its EMAs, which it's doing quite nicely. If I can make the money today that I made yesterday I'll be a very happy camper. The tsunami of building liquidity is the reason why the market can't build a trend to the downside. This liquidity level is fighting off any kind of real decline.
 
Birchtree said:
If we rally further from here, how many are gpoin to watch from the sidelines in fear of going in at the top. The most important thing right now is that the A/D line is not diverting and holds above support of its EMAs, which it's doing quite nicely. If I can make the money today that I made yesterday I'll be a very happy camper. The tsunami of building liquidity is the reason why the market can't build a trend to the downside. This liquidity level is fighting off any kind of real decline.
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I will probably be on the sideline unless we get some consolidation or pullback.
 
The ability to step back and use the market to achieve one's goals, rather than trying to follow and beat the market's every move, is key to a long-term success in investing. One has to remember that as we continue to move toward the epicenter and point of recognition of primary 3 of 3 of 3 consolidations will tend to be harder, faster, and set spectacular bottoms in which to move up aggressively. I think we'll probably take out the old 2003 MCSUM high of +1600 - I'll look for it this weekend. Dow Theory now says the secular bull market is resuming. It'll soon be time for some capitulation as the lily padders begin to throw in the towel and join the herd. The market place has this descounting mechanism that is able to see over the horizon on what the future fundamentals might be moving forward - this is why money moves in advance of the news. Friends, follow the money and seek the reasons later.
 
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Of course, by now, those of us with a deservedly positive outlook know we've arrived. Today's markets tops, those round numbers for both the SPX and the Dow mean they are our base. No longer are those plateauing numbers to be our ceiling. SPX 1625. Do people realize how close we are to reaching 1700? And beyond.
 
Birch, you ever snoop around over at traders-talk? I pay close attention to this guy...

NYSE Breadth Status - Traders-Talk.com

"All of the NYSE breadth advance/decline lines closed at all time highs on Friday with the lone exception of the Bond CEF advance/decline line which did so on Thursday. The NYSE Preferred advance/decline line in particular is now showing an almost parabolic angle in its structural ascent as money continues to plow into issues that give an all around total return on capital. Our focus for next week will be with the NYSE breadth MCSUM as it approaches its shallow declining tops line (see the Cumulative Charts update) as any break above this line, at this juncture, could stimulate a historic price run to the upside."
 
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