Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

The Ferdinand seismograph is picking up a vibe that a panic is about to happen - to the upside. Some additional firming may be needed.

 

[Birchtree]

My oceanic account had another OK week: +$43K, +$34K, +$30K, -$25K, +$34K for a sweet gain of +$116K. This week may be a harbinger for the next three weeks - wouldn't I just like to pull down amother +$300K.

Siegel on Dow 16,000, Bond Bubble | The Guru Investor

 

[Birchtree]

http://wwww.safehaven.com/article/29778/margin-debt-and-the-next-stock-market-crash

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi. Birchtree. When they say there is a bond bubble, does that mean when the bubble burst, the F fund will take a big hit and would that also Include the G fund ??? Thought G was a safe haven.

 

[Birchtree]

The G fund (lily pad) is a safe haven. I think bonds are already starting a very long and prolonged give back. The bond market is ten times larger than the equity market. Bill Gross is saying that the 30 year bull market in bonds peaked 4/29/13 - the bleed off may initially be slow and that is fine. No real need to be in a hurry. Interest rates may start going up in a few years and that will initially be very positive for the stock market - an expanding GDP.

 

[Birchtree]

SPX Topping Valuations | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

I like Adam Hamilton but I think he is wrong this time. I believe the secular bear market ended last year. Or perhaps it was a cyclical bear #3 inside a mega trend secular bull from 1982. Either way it appears the cyclical bull we've been experiencing is inside a new or extended secular bull - it don't matter as long as I make money for the next ten years.

 

[Birchtree]

"U.S. stock market upturn continues."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40401.html

 

[rcknfrewld]

Birch...give me the F fund price on May 11, 2014

 

[Birchtree]

"We are currently in what is often the most bullish of all the patterns, a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40403.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Market partying like it's 1995."

Market Partying Like It’s 1995: Santoli

 

[Birchtree]

Why Dow 15,000 is only the beginning - Jeff Reeves's Strength in Numbers - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

It's not people buying that makes prices go up, it's prices going up that make people buy - this is the very back bone of Elliott wave analysis - the movement of masses based on the stimulus generated by greed and fear. Under a Primary 3 scenario or any wave 3 scenario the trend is relentless and pays very little attention to divergences and such so once this little bit of indigestion is out of the way the rest of May should really be good for the market and probably into mid June. There is no overhead price resistance to speak of - only uncharted territory.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

It's not people buying that makes prices go up, it's prices going up that make people buy - this is the very back bone of Elliott wave analysis - the movement of masses based on the stimulus generated by greed and fear. Under a Primary 3 scenario or any wave 3 scenario the trend is relentless and pays very little attention to divergences and such so once this little bit of indigestion is out of the way the rest of May should really be good for the market and probably into mid June. There is no overhead price resistance to speak of - only uncharted territory.

So, if no one bought stocks, their prices would still go up? how?

 

[JimmyJoe]

It's not people buying that makes prices go up, it's prices going up that make people buy - this is the very back bone of Elliott wave analysis - the movement of masses based on the stimulus generated by greed and fear. Under a Primary 3 scenario or any wave 3 scenario the trend is relentless and pays very little attention to divergences and such so once this little bit of indigestion is out of the way the rest of May should really be good for the market and probably into mid June. There is no overhead price resistance to speak of - only uncharted territory.

I know want you mean. To those who haven't bought yet, the rising prices are inciting because... These rising prices show a robust health of the market and therefore people want to jump in. These people on the sidelines are so focused on the rising market that they don't realize of course, that previous buyers have elevated stock prices, though these prices really aren't that high according to many analysts.

 

[Birchtree]

The markets job is to keep folks from fully participating in what has become the greatest overall general advancing price sequence ever seen. Bull markets take more patience but the reward is plentiful. Being consistent does have its advantages.

 

[Birchtree]

"So we would argue that investors should rejoice and join in."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1429891-the-stock-market-can-go-much-higher-before-it-is-a-bubble

 

[Birchtree]

My dear lily padders this market has indeed been a disaster for anyone who perpetually believes the market is too high and has to pull back when in fact, the market doesn't have to do anything but continue to have you on the wrong side.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I know want you mean. To those who haven't bought yet, the rising prices are enticing because... These rising prices show a robust health of the market and therefore people want to jump in. These people on the sidelines are so focused on the rising market that they don't realize of course, that previous buyers have elevated stock prices, though these prices really aren't that high according to many analysts.

This is an enticing market to those who believe in it. Bonds are down and have been lately. The market is gathering this and other positive equity information that will lead to market gains. Look for another big boost this week, and for the upcoming year.

 

[Birchtree]

Is economy ready to rock? A bull’s view - The Tell - MarketWatch