Birchtree's Account Talk

[JamesE]

The VIX is still reaching for the 10 level - currently at 11.47 -0.36.

I remember when you always said when the vix hits the 14 level be ready for a blindside hit. What's your current blindside?

Seperately, I do believe this will run further than most think it can. Personally, I just can't jump in now. If I could just get a measley pull back that's all it would take.

 

[Birchtree]

That's the thing about a blindside - you never know when it will arrive as a surprise. With the Fed back stopping the market we may not see a blindside for years. But I'm never surprised when they occur - you get used to getting hammered as endurance builds.

 

[JamesE]

I must use caution.... this is the zone where I screwed up last year. Up 6% into March, jumped in April 1 and got rope-a-doped for two months and was -4 or 5% by the end of May. I see insiders are selling in huge numbers again, so I guess we'll have a little more run-up before anything significant to the downside.

 

[Birchtree]

If we get good news from the banks later today it'll be time to buckle up 'cause tomorrow could be wild and wooley. No over head resistance from here.

 

[Frixxxx]

The "dog ear" at the last 1/2 hour has me concerned. We may have reached the compression point for some pullback tomorrow. Plus, my $600+ deposit goes into TSP tomorrow....expectation? It will be worth $480 by COB tomorrow....2%...that bank noise better be smooth.

 

[ATCJeff]

The "dog ear" at the last 1/2 hour has me concerned. We may have reached the compression point for some pullback tomorrow. Plus, my $600+ deposit goes into TSP tomorrow....expectation? It will be worth $480 by COB tomorrow....2%...that bank noise better be smooth.

600 down to 480 is 20%. Let's not forecast a 20% decline! ouch

 

[Frixxxx]

600 down to 480 is 20%. Let's not forecast a 20% decline! ouch

damn decimal points...good catch ATCJeff!

 

[Birchtree]

The surprise is the Fed will allow the banks plenty of spill money - and some will come my way in increased dividends. Uncharted territory can be exciting - like having a new girlfriend. I'm slowly working my way toward margin release - got many wall flowers to buy. I can only speculate as to how much money I'll spend this year - but it'll be considerable.

 

[Birchtree]

Banks are trading up nicely in afterhours trading. It looks good from my perspective. I've got 15 dividends due in tomorrow so I'll take what ever the market wishes to dish. I did finally make some money today that was more than peanuts - now If I can get another sweet day to cap the week I'd be a happy camper.

 

[MrBowl]

Not going out on a limb much, but I expect the all-time closing high on the S&P tomorrow. The all-time intra-day high is from that same week in Oct 2007 - 1576. I think we'll see that next week, but my guess is a bit of zig-zagging for a week or so as some people feel the need to sell at this level and others see it as finally a sign to buy in.

 

[Birchtree]

"Presently the A-D line has been confirming the new highs in the Dow and S&P. Liquidity is in fact the single most important factor in determing the health of a market and it can trump all other considerations, be it fundamental, technical, or cyclical."

Have Cycles Been Killed by Bernanke? | Clif Droke | Safehaven.com

 

[JTH]

Who thinks they can outperform a bull market? Man, this is a tough crowd, those S-Fund train riders have refused to get off, only two people are outperforming the S-Fund...

 

[Birchtree]

BAC to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of common stock. It's time to buy more shares before it gets away.

 

[Frixxxx]

BAC to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of common stock. It's time to buy more shares before it gets away.

I may dip into that, after buying in @8, should be a no brainer. This one is going to get hot....Where do you think all that money that's being made is going to go? BANKS!

 

[Birchtree]

A few tidbits from my WSJ. "Lengthy advances in stock prices without a pullback are rare. Since the end of World War II, the Dow has extended its winning streak beyond 10 days only four times, most recently in January 1992. The longest run ever came in 1897, when the blue-chip measure strung together 14 days of gains. While some investors have worried the market's rise has gone too far, too fast, previous long-running rallies haven't necessarily ended in tears. When the Dow last strung together 10 days of uninterrupted gains in mid-November 1996, the Dow gained another 10% over the next three months and stood 19% higher in mid-November 1997."

 

[Birchtree]

Siegel: The Bull Has Legs | The Guru Investor

 

[Birchtree]

We got heavy volume on the open - may be a harbinger for a good day to the upside. Yes, uncharted territory is exciting for sure.

 

[hotwings]

I may dip into that, after buying in @8, should be a no brainer. This one is going to get hot....Where do you think all that money that's being made is going to go? BANKS!

Picking up some BAC and JPM too while it's down a bit.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

If you like the banks and financials, try some FAS, the triple leveraged financials ETF. But you gotta like hot sauce. Up 145% since last June.

 

[Birchtree]

I thought the banks would blaze the trail today, but perhaps not - it's still early though. Word has it that the talk among hedge fund managers is to hold their longs and not sell - if that is true we may not see a concentrated consolidation any time soon.