Birchtree's Account Talk

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Boghie said:
<Snark>
The only thing keeping Amoeba in the 800 club is new members
</Snark>

Sorry folks...

But I know what I am talking about... You see, a couple of years ago when I fell just outside the 20% mark in the AutoTracker I too benefited from a massive number of newbies. Viola, those guys filled the bottom quintiles I and I got bumped up. It was a super secret plan that I might need again this year;)
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Unless....you learned the hard way like I did, spending lots of time below zero and watching the newcomers come in and push you down further. Man, that stings!
 
Birchtree said:
"A better stratgey would be dollar-cost averaging overtime...
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The best would be to take a detailed report of a wildy, short, instable period in the market back in time then buy at the bottom of each decending slope and sell at the top of each ascending slope (make sure you know the volume you're dealing with so your trades aren't enough to skew the market). The market could close near where it opened and you would still have made alot!

Oh, I keep forgetting you all haven't invented the time machine yet, and I forgot to bring a stock report back with me and my machine broke beyond repair :( (if anyone doesn't realize this is a joke... you need to stay parked in the G fund.)
 
Birchtree said:
"A better stratgey would be dollar-cost averaging overtime. Investing should never be abouts moments in time, but should be a process over time."
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It used to be when I would always try to time the market. These days I just stay in it. I've seen the light. SPX 1700 by the end of the year.
 
NiteFlyer said:
The best would be to take a detailed report of a wildy, short, instable period in the market back in time then buy at the bottom of each decending slope and sell at the top of each ascending slope (make sure you know the volume you're dealing with so your trades aren't enough to skew the market). The market could close near where it opened and you would still have made alot!

Oh, I keep forgetting you all haven't invented the time machine yet, and I forgot to bring a stock report back with me and my machine broke beyond repair :( (if anyone doesn't realize this is a joke... you need to stay parked in the G fund.)
Click to expand...

Or just be immortal and DCA for hundreds of years. You'll be unstoppable!
 
Well money rolls in and money rolls out - sorta like the tides. The oceanic gave back this week: +$38K, -$136K, -$57K, +$51K for a devaluation of -$104K. Perhaps I'll get some of this back during next week. It looks like March will have to do as my salvation month unless February kicks in real soon - and it may with all the data coming out next week. Let's celebrate the sequester and knock knucklehead off his foundation - it was his grand idea. Hope he chokes on it. I believe the market will anticipate the sequester favorably. In the meantime we dance two steps forward and one step back.
 
A few blurbs from my WSJ. "If you think big company stocks have risen a long way lately, you should look at small company ones. They have been on a tear - raising questions of just how much risk investors are willing to take on in today's gung-ho market. The Russell 2000 index, a leading measure of small capitalization stocks, has rocketed 19% since its mid-November lows, well ahead of the 11% gains made by the blue chips in the DJIA over that period. This past week small caps hit their highest levels on record, before edging down with the market. On Tuesday, the R2K surpassed peaks seen in 2007 and 2011, and was up 170% from its March 2009 lows. Investors in small caps are now in danger of overpaying for the privilege of taking on more risk. Small caps now are overvalued on most measures relative to large caps and are likely to get hit harder in any downturn.

Since January 2000, the R2K has risen 85%, while the S&P 500 has grown just 7%. Small caps have now outperformed large caps for nearly 14 years - the longest such period ever seen, according to Ned Davis Research. The firm argues that if the market follows history, this period of outperformance will be followed, sooner or later, by a reversal. Investors who want to reduce their risk should cut their exposure to small-cap stocks. Thosew who still wish to stay invested in the stock market can move some of that money into large caps." I've sounded this warning for several years now and have been wrong - so here I sit in my large cap tugboat waiting, waiting.
 
Birchtree said:
Since January 2000, the R2K has risen 85%, while the S&P 500 has grown just 7%. Small caps have now outperformed large caps for nearly 14 years - the longest such period ever seen, according to Ned Davis Research. The firm argues that if the market follows history, this period of outperformance will be followed, sooner or later, by a reversal. Investors who want to reduce their risk should cut their exposure to small-cap stocks. Thosew who still wish to stay invested in the stock market can move some of that money into large caps." I've sounded this warning for several years now and have been wrong - so here I sit in my large cap tugboat waiting, waiting.
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It's difficult to predict when a long-term rotation will take place, thus far the last rotation (in favor of the S&P 500) took place in Feb 2012, we can see we are in a 2-touch parallel channel and it looks as though another rotation has potential...

View attachment 22573
 
Birchtree said:
Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market - Seeking Alpha
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".....From Porter Stansberry's ridiculous calls for the End of America to Bob Prechter's ongoing claims of imminent collapses in the market to the latest diatribe from
Marc Faber about how the markets have peaked (didn't he say that in 2009, 2010,
2011, and 2012?), the general investing public has been bombarded by these
seemingly eloquent and smart "gurus" whose short thesis is so well thought out
and convincing....."

Faber continually spouts the same noise week after week. Hell, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
 
Been listening to BHO against my best interest - the poor guy doesn't have a clue. Spend, spend, spend on more Obama phones and more fraud. He's lost...
 
I now have 39 dividend increase announcements so far this year - trying for more than my 2012 total of 136. March is one of my bigger paying months, so if we are weak into Friday I'll have 15 dividends hit - however every Friday since the beginning of the year has been up - oh well.
 
Now that was fun - February 2012 the oceanic had a gain of +$128K - this year the month is strongly shaping up to be a negative number. Well I do have 8 dividends due Thursday to close out the month. That does soothe the pain a little. Bull markets don't like to make things easy - shake a few weak hands out of the arena.
 
Birchtree said:
Now that was fun - February 2012 the oceanic had a gain of +$128K - this year the month is strongly shaping up to be a negative number. Well I do have 8 dividends due Thursday to close out the month. That does soothe the pain a little. Bull markets don't like to make things easy - shake a few weak hands out of the arena.
Click to expand...
Ha ha.. This market has a few tricks up its sleeve.
 
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