Birchtree's Account Talk

[JimmyJoe]

Gosh it's good to see a feeding frenzie at full tilt. "Bottom line being that although nominal dollars margin debt has 'broken out' to a new high for the current cycle, rate of change movement suggests animal spirits are not yet out of hand."

At The Margin | Brian Pretti CFA | FINANCIAL SENSE

I'm in it to win it. The next few days will go to, non stop, new highs. SPX 1535 March 1.

 

[WorkFE]

I new you would brother.:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

We could be seeing the beginning of a spectacular near verticle rally - those that want to run please be my guest. I'll hold my long term stance and not sell because there is more parabolic acceleration on the horizon just beyond the next corner. Anyone keeping the faith over the next several years is going to be well rewarded.

 

[Birchtree]

I suspose that most members have considered what will happen to the markets once we get into new uncharted territory - right? I know - the buying stampede will continue for many months and anything I buy now will only cost more later. Let's see if the last hour has some bullish spunk to get the Dow +286.

 

[FAB1]

THE NEXT STOCK MARKET CRASH: Why Many Pros Think It Has Already Begun

And now for something (really) Completely Different

Stocks are near all-time highs. And there are plenty of reasons to be terrified...

After coming within points of an all-time high, stocks have begun to stumble, and volatility appears to be returning to the markets.
This has led some market pros to declare that an amazing four-year rally in stocks is over and that we're on the precipice of a new crash.
And there is certainly no shortage of logic to support that view.
Massive U.S. federal budget cuts are looming, political instability in Europe is returning, and currency values around the world are falling.
And by many measures, U.S. stocks look due for a comeuppance. Valuations are elevated, profit margins are at all-time highs, and there are signs of investor complacency everywhere.
Of course, not everyone thinks stocks are headed for a crash. In fact, some experts think we're at the beginning of a new long-term bull market and that investors should go "all-in

Stock Market Crash? - Business Insider

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Setting the subject back to BTAT...

 

[Birchtree]

"Stocks power up to ramming speed." Chicago PMI +2.0%. I think we're going into uncharted territory and I'm ready to blaze my own trail.

 

[Birchtree]

Since size does not matter then fundamentals do matter. "While overall new orders for durable goods fell a seasonally adjusted 5.2% in January, capital expenditures excluding defense and aircraft spending - often seen as a proxy for business investment - climbed 6.3%."

Dow transports, industrials point to Dow Theory buy signal - The Tell - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

I had an interesting experience yesterday morning. I took one of my cars in for an oil change and check out. While I was there waiting a green van drove up and out gets this old fellow wearing a WWII cap. I got up and opened the door for him and held it open until he was in. He was using a cane and said thanks. He then said his wife doesn't want him driving and he's gotten to old to fly his plane anylonger. I asked him how old he was and he said 94 - then he said looking at my white hair what war were you in - we thanked each other for our service. So I now have a role model to help me live longer. It was a nice unexpected experience - his generation is almost history and mine will be history soon enough too. My inhouse banker asked me last night how much longer I intended to keep playing the risk game - I said until I drop. Snort.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: THE NEXT STOCK MARKET CRASH: Why Many Pros Think It Has Already Begun

BT,
You are an honorable individual although a bit ornery

 

[Birchtree]

Draghi may cut interest rates and the I fund is responding today.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Hey BT, thanks for stirring up a hornets nest over in my thread...

 

[Birchtree]

He or She can always do a drive by on my thread - just have to wear knee high manure boots because the stuff is deep.

"Send in the clowns - never mind they're already here."

 

[Birchtree]

"This has been the least respected bull market in history. The best thing possible for the bull to continue. Keep despairing guys, while the believers eat your lunch. Now is a great time to sit back and enjoy the dividends you bought into a few years ago. A careful review of the historical data suggests that the bull market would still have a long way to go when the dow reaches a new all-time high."

Would new Dow record set a bear market trap? - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I had an interesting experience yesterday morning. I took one of my cars in for an oil change and check out. While I was there waiting a green van drove up and out gets this old fellow wearing a WWII cap. I got up and opened the door for him and held it open until he was in. He was using a cane and said thanks. He then said his wife doesn't want him driving and he's gotten to old to fly his plane anylonger. I asked him how old he was and he said 94 - then he said looking at my white hair what war were you in - we thanked each other for our service. So I now have a role model to help me live longer. It was a nice unexpected experience - his generation is almost history and mine will be history soon enough too. My inhouse banker asked me last night how much longer I intended to keep playing the risk game - I said until I drop. Snort.

Good story.

 

[Birchtree]

I had the greatest of hopes to exceed my February 2012 gain of +$128K this month, but due to Monday's hammering I completed the month with a +$2K gain. Now the next goal is to exceed the March 2012 gain of +$30K - so we'll see how it goes. Tomorrow could be very interesting as the market tries to take out the 2007 high of Dow 14,164 - I have confidence. My hawk was on her nest all day today so I think we may have eggs.

 

[nnuut]

Daddy Bigbucks you should go out and spend some of that money, enjoy life!

 

[JTH]

My offer for your coffee cup still stands...

 

[Birchtree]

With the big bang we had for January I incorrectly extrapolated that the strength would carry momentum into February. Well it did for two weeks and then faded. For the first quarter of 2012 my oceanic took in +$441K and then came April (-$44K) and May (-$427K) leaving my account -$30K in the hole for the five month period. No fear because that is not going to happen this year. All I need is a gain +$135K for March and I'm keeping up with 2012. April and May will most likely treat me really well and then I'm ready to throw money away with my margin access. I'm expecting the new mega trend secular bull market to elevate me into the stratosphere. So patience is required until margin opens up and then I'll graze on my wall flowers for the next several years. Nice turnaround today for the bulls - Snort.

 

[TSP-roulette]

Birch; didn't the Civil Service go through sequestration in the mid 90's? I remember my division getting sent home for a few days and to "return until notified". Just can't remember how that event affected the market. Just wondering, since we have "dumb and dumbers" in DC from the top down in office, butting heads with the head umpire unable to resolve 'nada". Just wondering what your take is on how the markets will react to the news and the sequestration at hand.