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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
maverick06
Member
I check the thread to hear the positive news that the markets will explode north tomorrow... because i dont know WTF happened today... other than I was in the S fund and wasnt at my computer until post the deadline.
wavecoder
Active member
fed announcement saying they might end the stimulus earlier than expected. investors don't like that, although the fact that the fed is going to back off QE means the economy is recovering. double edged blade?
maverick06
Member
Thatll do it. does seem strange doesnt it! But at least understanadable.
Between work and 2 kids under 2, its busy, sometimes I dont get ot look at the charts until late and am quite surprised about the turn after 12, and the end of the day moves. its always interesting...
Birchtree
Well-known member
That sell off was based on nonsence but that's what a bull will do to shake off some weak hands - I'm ready to throw more money into my briar patch. Because stocks are a claim to a very long term stream of future cash flows and I'm working on building wealth. If anyone gets out on this consolidation you can be sure of one thing, and that is this bull will punish anyone that panics - that's what bulls do. Now you have to begin to prepare for a recovery scenario - it is never easy to battle feelings of inadequacy and powerlessness that can over come anyone in a consolidation - but remember we are in a bull market. It's time for me to show my greed and use this opportunity to buy some quality names that can help me grow wealth through time. So let's rock-n-roll.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Today would be a purrfect day to plow in with margin buying - but not so fast. My time will come. As of February excluding yesterday I'm up +$165K - that would translate to $330K in margin buying power and I can spend every dime of it on wall flowers. So here I sit on my thumbs waiting for my opportunity and I'm exercising patience grudgingly. Potential comes to those that wait - March will undoubtedly open the skies to opportunity. I really desire to leverage myself at least $2M in debt. It does take money to make money. Every downturn has its' merits - and for me who's steadily building a diversified portfolio of quality companies, and especially for pursuing dollar cost averaging strategies to include dividend reinvestments the odds favor a solid return. Sometimes you have to stand still to run faster.
Birchtree
Well-known member
I should get some come back today - just thinking about the potential of margin again. My oceanic is ahead from the beginning of this week +$431K - that translates to buying power of $862K - that's the opportunity I'm reaching for in the near future. My hope is that margin begins to open up sometime in March and then the flood gates will really open and the money will flow. The more I can spend the larger the gains that will be delivered. I see where the dollar is on a tear - that means a stronger economy and a stronger stock market. I think the I fund will be just fine so I'm holding my 80% position.No need to cut and run yet.
Nate
Member
Birch I gotta pick mindylou's brain for a second....I'm lacking in my decision making. You buy into companies, BCS & NBR for example. Graphs show a steady long term gain. I appears to me as stable but not huge growth opportunities. Heres the alternative rut im stuck in:
My logic tells me when looking at AXLL, this one will definately go into my spreadsheet. I'm tunnel visioned. I dont know if there is a term to describe my thinking, but most of my buying is based on a chart that once read $1000 per share that sells for $15 per share. I only see the ability for the company to come back to the previous value...when their market sector, or the economy in a whole rises back to pre-bubble levels.
Please tell me kind sir....what am I doing wrong here? How do I break this mold?
Im still investing peanuts and dont invest what Im not willing to lose. Are mindylou's decisions entirely based off diversity?
Also...I understand the status quo theory of high risk at the beginning, and scaling risk back throughout time. Am I right that coincidently this is what I'm doing here? (I do however have DIS, which is my staple low risk to build on)
Birchtree
Well-known member
Sometimes you simply have to backup out of the trees to see the complete forest. You need to think longer term and be out at least a year into the future. For example word is that Europe is in recession - so what. At the depth of a recession earnings will look awful when compared with earnings of a year earlier. But because the stock market looks forward rather than backwards, it more often than not will rise in anticipation of the economic recover that is just around the corner. If you are trying to build an equity base you might consider financials like RF, KEY. which are still cheap. Housing materials are wide open for purchase. I'll be 66 in July and there is no way I'm planning on scaling back - it's full steam ahead for me. My investing approach has always been based on contrarianism but I didn't start out that way - I grew into it after all my mistakes. I believe that my first purchase into BCS was in 2008 at $9 - so I'm just dollar cost averaging as we go higher. Mindylou says thanx for the question. She has been busy working on my next buy list - when margin opens up and drops $800K into our lap. Ride the bull my friend and accumulate your base.
hotwings
Member
BT,
What's Mindylou saying about BTU today? Looks like a good coal play for the long term... I'm adding to my IRA.
A Timely Opportunity in Peabody Energy (BTU)
Birchtree
Well-known member
I own all those companies listed plus a few more. I'm deep in coal and adding to my depth. The best opportunities will come when people are most fearful and pessimistic. So the more people that abandon coal the better I like it. Plus you get to buy more shares the lower the golden prices go. I've done the same approach with wood. Several years ago I was holding LPX for a -$14K loss and just kept dollar cost averaging buying more shares - as of yesterday I was up +$69K profit and it's active today. So stay true to a discipline as a contrarian and you'll be rewarded. Coal stocks will rise like the Phoenix in due time. Eventually companies will be able in bulk to turn coal into a clean gas that burns clean - the Chinese have a company in Texas doing just that technique.
Boghie
Well-known member
Glad I didn't bail from my current allocation.
I don't think the current dumb bunny gubmint panic will do anything to the market or the economy. After the politics - which are getting old even for the Low Information Voter - there will be a demand for more draconian cuts. Why, because nobody will feel the pin prick from these draconian cuts. Thus, the market and economy will hum along quite nicely. And, my dumb F Fund assets will be there for a ContrarianAmoeba Move. Too late for today though
Boghie
Well-known member
<Snark>
The only thing keeping Amoeba in the 800 club is new members
</Snark>
Sorry folks...
But I know what I am talking about... You see, a couple of years ago when I fell just outside the 20% mark in the AutoTracker I too benefited from a massive number of newbies. Viola, those guys filled the bottom quintiles I and I got bumped up. It was a super secret plan that I might need again this year
Birchtree
Well-known member
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