Birchtree's Account Talk

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On days like today it would appear that large-cap stocks are starting to outperform the smaller stocks - I've only been waiting two years for this.
 
Crude is creeping up - the good folks at Barclays Capital are saying the next 'mega cycle' for the oil services industry is just getting underway and they remain bullish on the oil services, equipment and drilling companies. They believe as I do that that the group will significantly outperform the broader equity market over the next several years.
 
We may be in an extended rally, with only minor one or two day consolidations for the next few weeks - hardly worth the cluck. Price declines are painful, but do not equate to capital losses if members stay long term and business values remain intact. Holding 20C/80I for the longer term - maybe all year.
 
I own a several thousand share position in GT (Goodyear Tire) waiting for something to happen - with all the cars being sold that need tires and tire replacements.
 
If you can transcend the day to day news flow slog for a broader perspective, the technicals of the US stock markets are actually quite bullish today. The Chicago PMI comes in at 55.6 for January versus 50.0 for December - they must be rebuilding inventories. Only one day of consolidation and here we go up again - a bull market for sure. Jeremy says 15,000 for this year - I'll hold to my 17,000. I also wanted to say that multiple expansion is the hidden lever that turns modestly higher earnings into much higher stock prices. This sure feels like we are in the heart of a 3rd wave which is generally the strongest part of a 5+ wave in the equity markets. The energy of the stock market is a lot smarter than our collective intelligence. Let the market do the talking.
 
nnuut said:
Hey Birch, 3 more posts and you reach the 20,000 mark, congratulations!
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He probably has more posts than you, nnuut. But every 4th posts has to be deleted because of his political Tourettes Syndrome. (No offense to people with Tourette Syndrome).

Congrats B! The 2nd "TSP Legend" on TSP Talk!
 
My Mindylou celebrating the 20,000 mark says "One who buys right must stand still in order to run fast." Buy right and hold on. The possibility that 2013 could be a year of reflation (Japan) similar to 2003 and 2009, whereby risk-assets could potentially rise substantially more than current market participants believe. The markets risk train chugs along, overbought does not mean a correction is coming - a drop better than 10%.
 
Birchtree said:
My Mindylou celebrating the 20,000 mark says "One who buys right must stand still in order to run fast." Buy right and hold on. The possibility that 2013 could be a year of reflation (Japan) similar to 2003 and 2009, whereby risk-assets could potentially rise substantially more than current market participants believe. The markets risk train chugs along, overbought does not mean a correction is coming - a drop better than 10%.
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Congrats Birch. You are an inspiration for all of us. Great words you heap upon us. Always positive about the market. :)
 
Congratualtions Mr. Paper Bark!

A little "tree" humor in your honor:

Two tall trees, a birch and a beech, are growing in the woods.

A small tree begins to grow between them, and the beech says to the birch, 'Is that a son of a beech or a son of a birch?'

The birch says he cannot tell, but just then a woodpecker lands on the sapling.

The birch says, 'Woodpecker, you are a tree expert. Can you tell if that is a son of a beech or a son of a birch?'

The woodpecker takes a taste of the small tree and replies, 'It is neither a son of a beech nor a son of a birch.
It is, however, the best piece of ash I have ever poked my pecker into.
 
tsptalk said:
He probably has more posts than you, nnuut. But every 4th posts has to be deleted because of his political Tourettes Syndrome. (No offense to people with Tourette Syndrome).

Congrats B! The 2nd "TSP Legend" on TSP Talk!
Click to expand...
Being a TSP Legend is getting over populated, what is the next level?:)
 
TWSJ tells me the small investor is heading toward the equity market - right now I'd say there is substantial upside in the long term before small investors are excessively exuberant. The longer this rally holds up, the more dangerous it becomes. Reason being, it becomes more and more convincing. I still won't cut and run - a little pain is beneficial. No one ever said it was easy to be greedy when others are fearful.
 
Birchtree said:
TWSJ tells me the small investor is heading toward the equity market - right now I'd say there is substantial upside in the long term before small investors are excessively exuberant. The longer this rally holds up, the more dangerous it becomes. Reason being, it becomes more and more convincing. I still won't cut and run - a little pain is beneficial. No one ever said it was easy to be greedy when others are fearful.
Click to expand...

The market is near a top when the small investors start sniffing around. Let's hope they don't come in droves this year. We'll get a sell-off for sure if they do.
 
The advance/decline is not showing any divergence against price. Tomorrow could be the catalyst with a good jobs report as a complete surprise - a strong multi-year rally in my opinion is just beginning - with aggressive monetary policy to continue through 2015, of job growth and improvement in consumer's balance sheets. These trending side ways days are slowly unwinding overbought levels.
 
Birchtree said:
The advance/decline is not showing any divergence against price. Tomorrow could be the catalyst with a good jobs report as a complete surprise - a strong multi-year rally in my opinion is just beginning - with aggressive monetary policy to continue through 2015, of job growth and improvement in consumer's balance sheets. These trending side ways days are slowly unwinding overbought levels.
Click to expand...
I fund, my fund of choice, showing some signs of life at the end of the day. Probably break even with fair value. The S fund will look nice to small time investors till first week of Feb. Then the hook will grab them, and that's not just my own opinion. And yeah, I lost a little by takin most of my remaining F fund money out of the F fund yesterday but at least I shook myself from that baggage. I don't think that fund has got any real strength for the rest of the year, just the occasional "head fake." Come Feb, I'm 25 C, 20 S, 45 I. I may wait a day or two, or maybe not, just dive in with a good, uplifting jobs report. There's going to be a sell off soon, and if the Feb seasonal chart keeps true to form it'll happen the middle of next week. Trading sucks though. Wish I could keep the investors mentality. Well, I don't look like much now, starting on the tracker hit parade at the middle of the month, but I've got my Jan pip to keep me warm. Buyers bethere, and I've got to be one. You've got to be in it to win it. :cool:
 
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