Birchtree's Account Talk

My small cap loaded oceanic account is not making any money today - but the tugboat is pulling me upstream. Will the last hour show some pride and push prices higher. The banks are being stubborn today but next week they'll kick and show they are going to lead a real bull move to the upside.
 
Here is a peek at how my oceanic account performed this week: -$13K, -$16K, +$13K, +$16K, -$11K for a grand total loss of -$11K. Well I won't complain.

"Stoval says we may have experienced a brief bear market in 2011, and that may help determine where stocks go from here. From April to early October 2011, the S&P lost 19.5% (based on closing price) and dropped as much as 21.5% intraday. Midcaps and small caps fell 25% while international markets tumbled 30% - bear market yerritory by any definition."

Here come the market leaders of 2013 - Howard Gold's No-Nonsense Investing - MarketWatch

Could that have been our last cyclical bear and we are now in a new secular bull market - stat tuned. The secular bear market may be over - RIP. I can't wait until more banks post their earnings to prep this bull toward 14,000 on the Dow.
 
Thanks Tom for the read but I'm not moving - my thinking is this market desires a good fight on the debt ceiling to bring stability to the economy. Sometimes you just gotta absorb the pain. Everyone is nervous as we get into February and that's a plus - we need that wall of worry.
 
Thanks Tom for the read but I'm not moving - my thinking is this market desires a good fight on the debt ceiling to bring stability to the economy. Sometimes you just gotta absorb the pain. Everyone is nervous as we get into February and that's a plus - we need that wall of worry.

Agreed! Can't predict the news so the only "worry" should be if the intermediate market gets overstretched. IMHO that will be around 1530-1550 for the S&P 500.
 
A blurb from my WSJ: "Cash poured inro stock funds at a blistering pace in the latest week, as investors flocked into equities after a yearlong rally and an early January jump. For the week ended Wednesday, investors sent $18 billion into stock funds and exchange-traded funds. The latest week's inflow marks thew biggest weekly cash influx since June 2008 and the fourth-largest weekly inflow ever, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch." So it seems smart money beat me into the crash back in 2008. In December 2008 my oceanic account was down around if not better than $1M and I was bleeding so I closed out my CD money and burned around $800K down the dark well of opportunity. It was dark and I bought all I could taking the risk of common sense to the limit. After two years I came within $24K of making +$2M. But smart money is not ahead of me this time. I'm waiting for escape velocity to be reached and the gain of another +$2M. Remember, the last time the euro was so low, and euro fears were so popular, the euro surged in a couple massive uplegs that coincided with a major upleg in the US stock markets. During all of the previous post-panic euro uplegs, the SPX rallied sharply to achieve major new cyclical-bull highs each time - now is no different. Friends we are on a freight train of accelerating asset prices. Also, secular bulls don't end until they bloom into popular speculative manias that sucks in normal everyday non-investors heading into a climax. We are perhaps decades away from that happening. There will never be another 2000 crazy tech boom or a 2007 crazy anyone can own a house boom - we may become a society of nothing but goof offs if the Democrats keep up with their social engineering crap.
 
I'm thinking the secular bear market has ended and we are now in the early stages of a new secular bull market. I'll be a strong buyer all the way to Dow 20,000. In 2012 the SPX had a 13% gain so 2013 could do much more than that - my wife would be happy for her retirement plan.
 
Hey Birch, if we default on the debt ceiling, what is the best fund to be in? I was thinking F fund, but not sure what the impact would be. What do you think?
 
It's a good day to have a bull pen full of small cap wall flowers - a friendly trend continues to suggest more gains ahead. I'm waiting on Dow 13,596 to trigger a Dow Theory buy signal and then you'll see the venturi effect as money rushes through a narrow door. Fears are reason to embrace stocks, not run from them. And yet here we stand with corporate profits at all time highs again and corporate balance sheets in the best shape in a generation. I'm addicted to equities and nervous with excitement - Snort.
 
Birch,
I have been a long time "observer" of your thread....and certainly appreciate you and Mindy Lou's approach.......I ran across an article about our government tapping into the federal employee pension fund to avoid the debt limit. Since I have retired from the military, I have an opportunity to transfer my TSP to my company's 401K......I am seriously considering this after reading this article.......shouldn't we have heard something from TSP about this BEFORE they start drawing funds from it? Your thoughts on this will be appreciated!

US taps pension fund to avoid passing debt limit - Yahoo! Finance
 
I'm not going to worry about the fight over the debt limit - Obama will choke. If you are thinking about transferring funds from TSP to an employer 401K I'd do it in stages sort of like dollar cost averaging. That way you have more control and flexibility. Your 401K plan may offer more choices to invest in.
 
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