Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I believe our friend handballer is demonstrating the epitome of the combined traits of fastidiousness and facetiousness - all in good fun.

 

[Birchtree]

Alright bring on the pain of golden prices - I'm in an accumulation mood. So many sweet wall flowers looking for the warmth of the oceanic harem. In the real world, Easter is only four months away and it's buying time again. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Currently sitting at #62 with +17.38% with the opportunity to break the #50 ceiling today as members fall from their S fund positions - this all depends on the I fund holding its dribble to the downside. I'm not going to cut and run from the fiscal cliff - I'll be buying into it. I think our current damage is still minimal to the bullish trend. I'm waiting for Obama to grow up and become a true American - is that possible or am I a dreamer.

 

[WorkFE]

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...vYDwDg&usg=AFQjCNFUY9I662cSf0RDnk7Y7pG3GiWklg

 

[JTH]

Currently sitting at #62 with +17.38% with the opportunity to break the #50 ceiling today as members fall from their S fund positions - this all depends on the I fund holding its dribble to the downside. I'm not going to cut and run from the fiscal cliff - I'll be buying into it. I think our current damage is still minimal to the bullish trend. I'm waiting for Obama to grow up and become a true American - is that possible or am I a dreamer.

Congrats, I'm so happy for you I could push you down a flight of stairs... I have no doubt you will finish the year in the Top 50

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks to our late afternoon rally my chances to get into the top 50 rankings has probably been ruined - so much for fate. Only 1 and a half days of trading left - the oceanic will do fine and the tugboat will come in around 19% for the year.

 

[JTH]

Thanks to our late afternoon rally my chances to get into the top 50 rankings has probably been ruined - so much for fate. Only 1 and a half days of trading left - the oceanic will do fine and the tugboat will come in around 19% for the year.

The I-Fund stands a chance of getting a positive valuation today, don't count yourself out just yet

 

[Birchtree]

Currently sitting at #59 with +17.52% - I don't think the I fund will save me today. My chances for a move into the top 50 is going to be shot out. Such high drama but I can't really complain. All my accounts are in fine shape and 2013 may be even better.

 

[NiteFlyer]

I'll go out on a limb... I bet it is rotten though... I'll predict (assuming a deal on Sunday or early enough Monday) a 3 to 5% rise in the C and S funds between now and COB Monday. This is assuming people with cash will think a deal is likely and want to get in as early as possible. There are many sitting on the sidelines with cash. Most people wanting to get out have probably already done so. So, there should be many more buyers than sellers and getting back in will cost them. <please, please, please, let this dream be right>.

Nice, in the time it took to write the above paragraph, the C and S funds shot up half a percent.

 

[Birchtree]

Think about this - over the last five years the small individual investor has pulled $340 billion or so out of mutual funds - can 50 million frenchman be wrong, you bet. To me this indicates a tremendous opportunity going forward - after all the bus travels faster with fewer on board.

 

[Birchtree]

Now what would I like for 2013 - I'd like an extra $10K in dividend income that is above and beyond what my oceanic account is already producing. I think that may be doable. I'd also like to chalk up a +$1M in equity gains and that could be a stretch. Who knows besides the Shadow what will happen. I'm excited to start the year and increase my net worth without being forced to take many capital gains. A new multi-decade Supercycle bull market has begun. Snort.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Now what would I like for 2013 - I'd like an extra $10K in dividend income that is above and beyond what my oceanic account is already producing. I think that may be doable. I'd also like to chalk up a +$1M in equity gains and that could be a stretch. Who knows besides the Shadow what will happen. I'm excited to start the year and increase my net worth without being forced to take many capital gains. A new multi-decade Supercycle bull market has begun. Snort.

Nice dream ya got there BT. Would love to see a strong market too, but I really think the s**t will hit the fan sooner rather than later. Do you have a battle plan in case we get a large market correction this coming year? Will you profit from it? I'd let your dividend payers ride out any storm, but be careful with your other equities. Just a word of caution. 2012 was great, but they all can't be like this.

Good luck!

 

[Birchtree]

I did absorb a -$427K hit in May 2012 before the come back started - so I have some flexibility to handle pain that may come my way. No pain no gain. I'm going to
post my monthly totals for 2012 in case anyone may be curious as soon as the year ends. I think 2013 has the capacity to be explosive to the upside.

 

[Handballer]

"I think 2013 has the capacity to be explosive to the upside." I hope so too. But don't start until the 2nd of January.

 

[JTH]

I have to admit, the EFA is holding up exceptional well, Month-to-date it has outperformed the Tran, Nasdaq 100, S&P 100/400/500/600, and Wilshire 4500 by a large margin. In addition, the UUP U.S. Dollar ETF has remained below its 20SMA since 23 November. Perhaps 2013 will be a banner year for the I-Fund?

Monthly EFA
View attachment 21678

 

[Birchtree]

My question is how soon will the I fund become the overcrowded trade - sometime before 2013 ends or early into 2014. At some point I'll be ready for a flip from 20C/80I to 80C/20I. Gotta keep some leverage just in case I'm early. I'm currently ahead $98K on the month in my oceanic but that will be long gone if we go over the cliff.

 

[Birchtree]

So we may be headed for a -315 point down open - bring it. I've been there before and have a bunch of dividends due tomorrow all at perhaps golden prices. Gimme some of that old fashioned pain.

 

[Birchtree]

Well so much for the smash down - at least not yet anyway. Folks, if you don't own any homebuilders or related building materials - you are missing an opportunity.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Well so much for the smash down - at least not yet anyway. Folks, if you don't own any homebuilders or related building materials - you are missing an opportunity.

I do like LPX. Up 124% since June 1. Not too shabby.

 

[Birchtree]

I've been dollar cost averaging LPX for about 12 years going from a mighty loss to a mighty gain - my lowest price was $2.11 several years back. I was just thinking today that it was time to add to this position.