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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Whew today was some kind of ride - here is what my oceanic looked like the last 5 trading days of December: -$20K, -$10K, -$9K, -$37K, +$101K for a total gain of +$25K. I had a goal of $276K and ended up +$200K for the month - I know you can't have everything. But I do fully expect to do even better in January. I'll post later my monthly totals for the year trying not to be a bore if ya know what I mean - but they were fine.
eccougar
Member
Nice call Birchtree.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Here are what the weekly December numbers for my oceanic looked like: 1/+$34K, 2/+$36K, 3/+$104K, 4/-$75K, 5/+$101K for a +200K gain. I included Monday as part of the week. I finished out the year with my tugboat showing #74 with a +18.06% gain - I believe the I fund fair value shorted me yesterday, otherwise I could have been a contender but it's only money. Now for the good stuff. If anyone is interested here is a look at the monthly totals for my oceanic account in 2012: 1/+$283K, 2/+$128K, 3/+$30K, 4/-$44K, 5/-$427K (that puppy hurt), 6/+$286K, 7/-$27K, 8/+$112K, 9/+$153K, 10/-$1K, 11/+$48K, 12/+$200K for a yearly gain of +$741K. You are welcomed to double check my addition for verification - but in all it wasn't a bad year for a permabull buy and holder. 2013 shall be even better. Snort. May 2012 did force me to harvest some capital gains because of my margin balances and those gains will be extra added to my income. Those gains are somewhere in the neighborhood of +$140K. My goals for 2013 are to harvest only minimal gains and increase my equity by +$1M. We'll see what the year brings. Some of my capital gains are both long term and short term so I'll have to use the pencil to see how the balances shake out. It looks like my margin interest deduction remains intact and will definitely be helpful to reduce my tax burden some.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Could the momentum of today give us a +315 point Dow on the close. If so then Betula papyrifera is going to make serious money. Also, I believe the I fund still owes me some fair value. I'd hate to think I make my January goal in three trading days but stranger things have happened in the markets. So many people sitting on the dock of the bay watching money potential float away. Be in to win.
Sensei
Well-known member
You might have to wait until Japan gets back to business for the FV to kick in. Imagine the Nikkei having to make up 4-5% in gains when it comes back from its 4 day holiday. You're in a good position to be sure.
Birchtree
Well-known member
It would appear that we are going to experience a global melt up this year. I'm reminded that the final hard down phase of the 40-year and 60-year Kress cycles are upon us in 2013 and 2014. I firmly believe in cycles but they can often be stretched in time. Just be cognizant as we progress into the horizon. Bear market rallies are sharp, quick, loud, noisy, make you feel good, get people talking about them. They suck you in and then bury you soon after. So if you are afraid of taphophobia please stay away from the I fund.
Birchtree
Well-known member
My oceanic in the first 30 minutes this morning got goosed by +$114K - now all I have to do is hang on to it. I did buy some KOL and WGO and plan to get in deeper in the next two days. This bull run can last for several months so stay focused and keep socks on when your feet get cold.
Mcqlives
Active member
+308 good enough for you?!?!?!?!
Birchtree
Well-known member
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
So what happens to that annual return (60/40 buy and hold) when you go out, say 4 or 5 years? 10?
Also curious how buy and hold works during a bear market? not so well?
Birchtree
Well-known member
Buy and hold works fine in a bear market providing you have access to cash (dividends) to dollar cost average all the way down the well into the bottom. It can get dangerous if you are on margin because margin calls will take you out at the wrong times - that's why I'm rebuilding my sacrificial lamb chop account to be kept in reserve for those rainy days. A bear market is purrfect for the TSP account providing allocation of cash is constant because the goal is to accumulate shares at golden prices. 2008 pricing is gone forever and becomes more difficult for new employees to build their asset base. I personally will never be out of the market and I never go near bonds - they scare me. When I start taking money out of my tugboat account (TSP) in four years I'll just dollar cost average into my Birchtree 300 stock fund.
Birchtree
Well-known member
I'm going to go out on one of my bullish limbs. I had originally set a whisper goal for a January gain in my oceanic account of +$283K. Now that the R2K has made a new all time high yesterday and is on a strong run currently, I'm going to bump my whisper number to +$400K. The oceanic contains approximately a 90% position in small caps and should benefit nicely if the current momentum continues for the rest of the month. That may sound bodacious but is doable.
Boghie
Well-known member
RMI,
Buy and Hold in a declining market is a contrarian move. If you have a time horizon to make up the losses and you are still contributing and potentially increasing the contributions than a declining market is yummy indeed. You just cannot panic and lock in the losses. Remember, that millions of business owners and managers are each day attempting to grow their businesses. I put my faith in them on general principle.
BT got me out of my turtle shell in 2009. Then I raced right past him (about 1%
) with a lot of smack talk all the way - yuk, yuk. I increased my contributions, reallocated to equities, didn't panic over the small May and July moves, and bought an awful lot of 'C Fund' for less then $10. Very yummy.
BT is easily made whole as of sometime last year. And, better than whole with contributions. A B&Hers doesn't look at monthly returns, maybe not even annual returns, but he/she is looking at lifetime returns. So, sitting in the 'C Fund' and watching the rest of us move hither and tither over chart moves and politician yammering is fun for the whole family. BT beat both of us in 2012 by a wide margin. So did the 'C Fund'. And, the 'C Fund' beat both of us last year.
On the other hand, I think picking up the froth in 2007 was fairly easy. So, migrating to a conservative allocation was easy. I could not handle watching my assets collapse like that - even short term. I want to keep things smoother and with less risk. He accepted a lot of risk sitting in one fund. I like my sleep better.
wavecoder
Active member
no, not until bull hooves clang off the moon and soar to 1700 SPX :nuts:
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
1223 is also "only a timid 237 points to go" and we were just there a little over a year ago.
We have never been to 1700, closest was ~1576.
Just sayin...Similar threads
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