Birchtree's Account Talk

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NYAD - all time highs. I hope the world is short going into Monday and when they cover up we go like a parabolic rocket.
 
"As the market chops all ovewr the place, keep in mind that S&P 500 has massive long term support at roughly 1419. Just keep that 50-day exponential moving average on your computer screen and remember that all selling above this level is just noise in what is still a more bullish environment."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36891.html
 
I've learned from experience not to place too much credence on anything that comes out of CNN - I'm long and staying that way until Spring and most likely throughout 2013. I want to participate in all investment opportunities available to me. Money has been leaving the market comparable back to 1981 - and it was in August 1982 when the mega trend secular bull market got fired up. Who knows, it might happen again and I won't miss it. I caught that 1982 launch and no one believed it but I made some nice gains all the way up for about ten months before the market rested. So it will take an over abundance of participants before I seriously consider any cut and run strategy - I mean I rode the wooly beast in 2008 and came out of that mire well ahead. Also remember the VIX was below 10 in the fall of 2007 and we have a ways to go yet to get there. No fear here.
 
We now have 5 days in a row where the transports have outperformed the industrials - does it mean anything - perhaps.
 
Birchtree said:
I've learned from experience not to place too much credence on anything that comes out of CNN - I'm long and staying that way until Spring and most likely throughout 2013. I want to participate in all investment opportunities available to me. Money has been leaving the market comparable back to 1981 - and it was in August 1982 when the mega trend secular bull market got fired up. Who knows, it might happen again and I won't miss it. I caught that 1982 launch and no one believed it but I made some nice gains all the way up for about ten months before the market rested. So it will take an over abundance of participants before I seriously consider any cut and run strategy - I mean I rode the wooly beast in 2008 and came out of that mire well ahead. Also remember the VIX was below 10 in the fall of 2007 and we have a ways to go yet to get there. No fear here.
Click to expand...

1981?? Sure hope you are a lot older then me Birch! Otherwise I'm a really late bloomer -- maybe too late? Heck, I can't even remember 1981!:)
 
Birch, you got any loot in INTC? I'm down over $830. It's time to cash out of that trade. Right? You are The Man.
 
Khotso,

I got back from Vietnam in July 1969 and started my investing saga in 1971 playing on paper for a year or so and then invested real money in 1972. The 1972 bottom was a brutal lesson and so it went from there.

Handballer,

No INTC currently in the portfolio - but doesn't it pay about a 5% yield.
 
Birch, did you trip this morning and slam face first into that bull manure you always talk about? :cheesy:
 
The market never goes straight up and weaker pricing is golden for dividend reinvestments. There is enough cold air around that a warm steaming manure pile could be real comfortable. Let's see what AA looks like on the close - it's time for a positive surprise.
 
Since 1900, 63% of all election year annual highs have come in November and December, since 1975 it's 67%. Imagine the S&P 500 in a strong cyclical bull market - where is the top - I can't see it. Because the hedge funds have missed out on the 2012 stock rally the surprise to the upside may come over the course of the next year as they chase performance. No money is made sitting in cash. The stock market is set in motion to resume its year end uptrend before the culmination of this four year Bull market cycle - hold strong while the bull shakes a rear leg. Breadth continues to improve with the NYAD line at all time highs recently - the MACD is still in play as a buy signal. Mindylou says now Boss try not to be tendentious.
 
I'm in your camp on this one. Don't think we're seeing a market top here, just a normal sell off in a continuing bull market.

Not too fond of using the NYAD line as an indicator of market strength, though.

Take a look at the Nasdaq A/D line. It's been heading down for years, yet the Nasdaq itself is doing just fine.

naad.png
 
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BirchTree, have you forgotten to respond to the PM, or are you just choosing to ignore me? :)
 
The stock market selling to unwind continues and that's really good news if you're bullish on the market - let's see how close to 1419 we can get. I'm just letting my dividends do the hefty lifting while prices reach toward golden levels - I'm a natural dollar cost averager.

Insiders betting on a market decline - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

Sammy Edwards in the comments section has it right - "A week ago insiders didn't understand that Obama is toast."
 
My oceanic account is not tax protected so any selling that is profitable is taxed at two different rates. I've already made over $100K that I'm going to be responsible for when I do my taxes. Dividend income will be taxed at 15% currently and the stream is basically permanent and grows via compounding every time I reinvest the dividend income. I use my margin interest rate to offset some of that tax. I'm not interested in taking anymore capital gains this year - that balance is fluid and will vascillate. As far as my tugboat account I'm basically a buy and holder for the long term. I'm interested in building my income base and reinvesting it until I need to pull it for life style.
 
I now have 105 dividend increase announcements made this year - and I predict I'll see at least 10 more before the year ends. Here are my last five: BRC, KR, AZZ, CLC, GLW. The important question now is how will 2013 treat me - many more companies to raise their dividends. As you can tell I'm optimistic that the cash will roll.
 
Birchtree said:
I now have 105 dividend increase announcements made this year - and I predict I'll see at least 10 more before the year ends. Here are my last five: BRC, KR, AZZ, CLC, GLW. The important question now is how will 2013 treat me - many more companies to raise their dividends. As you can tell I'm optimistic that the cash will roll.
Click to expand...

What do you mean by dividend increase announcements?
 
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