Birchtree's Account Talk

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All I need is to make $61K between today and tomorrow and I'll be even money for April - that's all I want. I now have 60 dividend increase announcements so far this year - another 100 would be fine.
 
When and if I make an IFT anytime soon it will be based on my contrarian approach - but I'm actually satisfied for the rest of this year. I was just punning with the herd.
 
The simple uncomplicated answer is that as a contrarian I shop for value - I buy when and where others fear to tread. If you follow Coolhand's data you will see very few members in either the I fund or the C fund. I'm a longer term investor and blaze my own trail - usually without emotion. My oceanic account is probably 90% small cap and my tugboat is 100% large cap. Large cap stocks have been out of favor for much of the past decade. Yet there are signs that large caps' days in the doghouse may be coming to an end. They're cheap, unloved and no one wants to own them. The current valuation metrics are near levels that existed in June 1983; over the next decade the S&P 500 handily outperformed the R2K, returning 10.4% annually vs. 6.5%. Eventually I'll begin shifting some I fund money towards the C fund - building more C fund shares. The price/earnings ratio of small-cap stocks is currently about 17, compared with about 14 for large caps. That puts the ratio of the valuations of small to large at about 1.2, equal to the highest ever recorded. If you need more - I got more. Snort.
 
I didnt see any of my favorite posters in the Current Posts so I decided to come here.
Well, nothings changed good ol' Birchtree.
 
Birchtree said:
The simple uncomplicated answer is that as a contrarian I shop for value - I buy when and where others fear to tread. If you follow Coolhand's data you will see very few members in either the I fund or the C fund. I'm a longer term investor and blaze my own trail - usually without emotion. My oceanic account is probably 90% small cap and my tugboat is 100% large cap. Large cap stocks have been out of favor for much of the past decade. Yet there are signs that large caps' days in the doghouse may be coming to an end. They're cheap, unloved and no one wants to own them. The current valuation metrics are near levels that existed in June 1983; over the next decade the S&P 500 handily outperformed the R2K, returning 10.4% annually vs. 6.5%. Eventually I'll begin shifting some I fund money towards the C fund - building more C fund shares. The price/earnings ratio of small-cap stocks is currently about 17, compared with about 14 for large caps. That puts the ratio of the valuations of small to large at about 1.2, equal to the highest ever recorded. If you need more - I got more. Snort.
Click to expand...

That's a good response Birch. I like the "cheap and unloved" portion of your statement, but I was hoping you'd say "and beginning an uptrend".

And I hope you'd rarely consider selling your world dominating dividend growers. :)
 
Monday 4/30 will make or break my April gains. So far I'm only -$9K in the hole for the month. This is what happened with my oceanic account this week: -$54K, +$43K, +$67K, +$29K, +$23K for a smooth gain of +$108K. So Monday remains the tell. I'd really like one of those +$100K days to start off the week which would leave me giddy. Perhaps we'll see some good fair value added into the I Fund today COB.
 
Can we talk bubbles for a moment. "Rallies and bubbles tend to last far longer and grow much larger than most anyone expects. Periods of cheap money policy, low interest rates and sharp increases in money supply - have always resulted in bubbles. Since the rally began, there have been very few true believers. Like generals who tend to fight the last war, investors fail to adjust to what the market gives them. All bubbles are marked by a euphoric period when almost all investors are drawn in. It's when fear and greed, the two most powerful market forces, are working together. Greed brings many investors in (Birchtree). Fear of missing out brings in the rest (Amoeba). Wait for it. The rational person would naturally expect the resultinmg bubble to be bigger and last even longer." You should know the chances of returning to a state of extreme bubble dynamics in stocks does in fact exist moving forward. It means stocks are most likely going higher, possibly much higher if extreme bubble like conditions were ever to return - and I know they will. Money that will soon come flowing out of the very large bond bubble will be looking for a new home, who knows how ridiculous stock valuation could get. That's why I'm determined to stay fully long every day of this bull market. Snort.
 
QE3, where is QE3, I don't see no QE3. When my neighbor steps out her front door to smoke a cig I can smell her long before I see her. QE3 is the same way. The market will smell QE3 long before the rest of us can see it - the strategy is to be prepared to benefit. QE3 will propel this rally leg much higher - you just have to know that looking forward. Remember, it's not what you see in front of you but what is waiting around the corner. This omnipotent market is looking out into the future further than we mortals can see. Stand on the tracks and take the hits - you'll feel refreshed and ready to rumble. This bull is far from finished. Snort.
 
Natural gas - who in their right mind likes it besides Birchtree. "There are two kinds of investors: those who run away from a fire and those who run toward it. To invest in natural gas stocks, you had better be the kind who runs toward a fire. Prices have collapsed - for natural gas and for the shares of companies that produce it. In short, the news about natural gas is awful - exactly the type of conflagration that growth investors hate, but value investors love. Everyone who has a brain should be thinking of how to make money on this in the longer term. In mid-2008, natural gas traded above $10 per futures contract; today you can buy the equivalent for $2. The fuel is so cheap that if you could somehow magically transport it to Europe or Asia, you could sell it for four to eight times what you paid for it here. (That's what Mindylou says). Investors can make big money longer-term but you tell me how many people have horizons longer than three or six months. Dpn't touch these stocks unless you can withstand the high probability of getting a short-term scorching. There's also a lesser risk that some of these companies could flame out completely. Investors here need patience, deep pockets and an implacable tolerance for pain." I can meet all those criteria. No pain no gain.
 
Oooh this is so pretty to look at - TICKQ remains in a bullish configuration. Longer-term money flow remains positive and is at new all time highs. Some smart money has faith.
 
I missed my target of a positive April - actually closed out the month at -$44K. This is what the oceanic has done over the last four months: +$283K, +$128K, +$30K and -$44K - you can add them up. May holds the prospect to be much more profitable - I only need to make a couple $M for the year and currently have a good start.
 
Birchtree said:
Natural gas - who in their right mind likes it besides Birchtree. "There are two kinds of investors: those who run away from a fire and those who run toward it. To invest in natural gas stocks, you had better be the kind who runs toward a fire. Prices have collapsed - for natural gas and for the shares of companies that produce it. In short, the news about natural gas is awful - exactly the type of conflagration that growth investors hate, but value investors love. Everyone who has a brain should be thinking of how to make money on this in the longer term. In mid-2008, natural gas traded above $10 per futures contract; today you can buy the equivalent for $2. The fuel is so cheap that if you could somehow magically transport it to Europe or Asia, you could sell it for four to eight times what you paid for it here. (That's what Mindylou says). Investors can make big money longer-term but you tell me how many people have horizons longer than three or six months. Dpn't touch these stocks unless you can withstand the high probability of getting a short-term scorching. There's also a lesser risk that some of these companies could flame out completely. Investors here need patience, deep pockets and an implacable tolerance for pain." I can meet all those criteria. No pain no gain.
Click to expand...

I read this article over the weekend and was thinking about adding natural gas to my portfolio. Looks like it has the potential to move sideways while I DCA steadily into it for a few years. This article mentioned Encana (ECA), which seems to pay a pretty good dividend. Do you have any other suggestions?

Also, it looks like you manually type out all your article quotes - have Mindylou show you how to copy and paste! :D
 
Birch, I had a question that I was hoping you could help me with. I came across a couple stocks that will be paying dividends this month that are huge. I see something called an ex-dividend date though...

I did some research and it seems to get the dividend you need to own the stock prior to the ex-dividend date, but you can sell th stock on the ex-dividend date or after the ex-dividend date and you will still be entitled to the dividend payout on the later date.

Is my research correct in this?

I'm looking at ETP and FE. Also, what do you think of these?

Thanks!
 
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