Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

The Ebb Chart Primer is trying to tease me - but I know very well where this market is headed. The only thing we have to fear is no fear - stand back and marvel.

 

[Birchtree]

"A multi-generational Supercycle wave 3 began..." Whew it makes me blush - I've waited so long.

 

[Sensei]

I just want to be the guy to claim post #13456 on your thread.

Can someone cut the yoke off Ferdinand? It appears to be slowing him down somewhat over in Germany.

 

[Birchtree]

Gee I forgot to link the Supercycle wave 3.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33322.html

 

[Birchtree]

I just took another bite on LNG - Blackrock is back stopping them with money to expand.

 

[lacaprup]

I just took another bite on LNG - Blackrock is back stopping them with money to expand.

Up 10% today. Frankly, there doesn't seem to be a bad energy company out there nowadays.

 

[Birchtree]

Here are my DCA prices on LNG: $10.05, $8.28, $10.18, $12.75, $15.00, $15.40. I recommended to a friend when it bottomed out around $3.

 

[Birchtree]

VIX, Transports Indicative of Vulnerable Stock Market | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

Market is in rally mode - gosh will it ever reach Dow 14,000.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

VIX, Transports Indicative of Vulnerable Stock Market | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

Market is in rally mode - gosh will it ever reach Dow 14,000.

How about we close above 13k today, then we can work on 14k!

 

[Birchtree]

I want my Dow +300 parabolic spike to send mainstreet the message - get in or miss the train completely.

 

[Birchtree]

As a renegade contrarian investor I'm always on the lookout for signs of potential change. Today I received the all clear sign for the rally to continue awhile longer. Our friend amoeba has clucked to the curb.

 

[lacaprup]

I want my Dow +300 parabolic spike to send mainstreet the message - get in or miss the train completely.

Yeah, but once the dumb money comes in, the market usually decides to take a bath. I'm totally flummoxed by the sideways trading the last few days. I'm going to be stubborn and sit out all of March if I have to. There needs to be a correction.

 

[Birchtree]

This market resembles first quarter strength similar to 1995 - there were no corrections in 1995 - straight up all that year. March could easily shower us with a 1000 point gain.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

"A multi-generational Supercycle wave 3 began..." Whew it makes me blush - I've waited so long.

Gee I forgot to link the Supercycle wave 3.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33322.html

Interesting article, Birch. Thanks for posting. Didn't know you were a Elliot Wave fan.

Even though the article says the long term technical outlook is bullish (I would agree), the short term is quite a different story...

"The internal wave structure of Minor wave 5 appears, at or, near completion. We can count five Minute waves up from the Minor wave 4 low. All rising Minor waves during this uptrend contained five Minute waves. We can also count five, complete or near complete, Micro waves within Minute wave v. It appears, on friday, this uptrend may have ended Micro wave 5, of Minute wave v, of Minor wave 5. This suggests a potential uptrend top is at hand." (Emphasis mine.)

Also...

"First, we have drawn on the hourly chart an overhead resistance trendline that has halted every rally during this uptrend. The market may try to tag that trendline again before heading lower, or even break through it if the uptrend is about to extend. Second, the market set up important support at SPX 1352 this week. Should the SPX trade below that level next week the uptrend has likely ended. Third, during this entire uptrend all pullbacks have been limited to 20 points or less, with the exception of Minor waves 2 and 4. Should the market break below, currently SPX 1349, the uptrend is likely over. In summary, there is trendline resistance in the low 1370′s, and two potential downtrend underway signals below SPX 1349 and 1352. Time to be cautious in this bull market." (Emphasis mine.)

Just wanted all our readers to be clear that unless you do your due diligence, headlines can be misleading.

The "market oracle" is actually looking for a pullback, and urges caution for short term traders who are still in the market.

 

[Birchtree]

I've been trying to hang onto a $200K month for the month of February - today may cinch the deal. I took in $283K for January and March may be promising.

 

[silversurfer]

I like optimism..i hope its catching. Like Crommies disclaimer:I have absolutely no idea what i'm doing.

 

[sdouglas3]

With the small increases in the market. At what point do the shorts start to cover and make this a buying frenzy?

Steve

 

[Birchtree]

Now that's a good question. I suspect that when their anxiety level reaches the point where they are scraping their claws on pavement until it hurts - that's when they may move in force. Of course a +300 point Dow move could be a catalyst to ignite their cover moves. Perhaps 1400 on the SPX will force in the towel on capitulation - or just wait on JTH to finally give into some healthy greed.

 

[crommie]

I like optimism..i hope its catching. Like Crommies disclaimer:I have absolutely no idea what i'm doing.

I guess you know when you have arrived when you're quoted on Birch's thread! Arrived in the BULL's Camp that is! Run Bulls Run!!! :nuts:

 

[Bquat]

With the small increases in the market. At what point do the shorts start to cover and make this a buying frenzy?

Steve

Dow at 13136 right Birch