Birchtree's Account Talk

[rcknfrewld]

I didn't know they were mutually exclusive

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I didn't know they were mutually exclusive

Hmmm, well, I guess you have a point there...

We are all investors. I guess I should have said Buy & Holder, not a trader... More specifically, he is a buy and holder (of dividend paying stocks).

He holds his positions for years/decades, traders hold for days/weeks/months. There are different kind of traders too, and I think the most here can be classified as trend/swing traders (those can be separately defined too).

Buy And Hold Definition | Investopedia
Day Trader Definition | Investopedia
Swing Trading Definition | Investopedia
Trend Trading Definition | Investopedia

 

[Birchtree]

I've been doing the cha-cha with the oceanic this past week. Here's what happened: -$4K, -$15K, -$52K, +$23K, -$59K for a give back of -$107K. That's tolerable - we can even stay weak another couple of weeks with the small caps and my dividends will be working overtime. I will continue to lose dollar value and probably make some of that up with my tugboat - now sitting at #95 with +10.62%. Listen, stock bulls are drawing support from an unlikely corner: the market for fear. Amid a debate over whether stocks will keep rising, investors are piling into futures contracts on the VIX. Daily volume last month was the second highest on record, at 1.34 million contracts, up 65% over January.

 

[Birchtree]

"The relative performance of banks in 2012 tells me that this rally is probably closer to its beginning than to its end. I believe equities are heading much higher in 2012."

BANKING ON A STRONG 2012 - ChartWatchers - StockCharts.com Blogs

 

[jkenjohnson]

Laszlo is saying SPX of 1700 by end of year - he must be reading my thread. Yes folks, we are certainly on a freight train of accelerating asset prices.

You kill me.

 

[Birchtree]

From my WSJ: "The most important economic news in recent weeks has been the global flood of monetary easing. In addition to the European Central Bank's liquidity burst, China is easing its reserve requirements to stimulate more bank lending. The Bank of England has been all-in for some time, and the Babk of Japan recently joined the party. Lesser central banks have been following suit, as the world takes its cues from the grandest monetary maestro, Mr. Bernanke, who has announced that the Fed will keep interest rates at near-zero for another three years." This ride on the Grand Trunk is going to continue to be spectacular - sorry for those missing it.

 

[Birchtree]

"The stock market has risen 28% since the October 2011 low, and remains in a bull market since March 2009. Currently we expect this bull market to top out around the October 2007 highs (1567), or higher, by the second half of 2013." That sounds way conservative for my liking.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33427.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Taking an interest in the market and becoming more knowledgeable about the companies I own has not only been fun but very rewarding."

Retirement Investing: Dividends For The Long Haul - Seeking Alpha

 

[hotwings]

Hey Birch,

Ck out BTU.... Do you think it's a good buy and hold at this price or do you think it will go lower and we grab some later???

 

[Birchtree]

I own BTU and will be buying more at some point - the whole industry is out of favor currently. But that won't last once China perks up.

 

[Birchtree]

From my friends at TWSJ: "Are you buying this rally? Insiders aren't. The SPX is up 25% since its October low, recently hitting its highest level since before the financial crisis. Yet the people running America's listed companies are selling shares at the fastest pace since last May, according to Trim Tabs Investrment Research. Company insiders sold $6.8 billion of their companies'shares in February. And for every $13 of selling, there was just $1 of buying. With just $510 million of buying, February wasthe sixth month in a row where corporate insiders purchased less than $1 billion of stock.

Intutively, this isn't a good sign, although it isn't a foolproof predictor of market tops. Investors can sell to raise funds to pay bills, not necessarily as part of a fundamental call on the market. Yes, the last peak in selling activity, May 2011, came just after the last peak in the S&P 500. Equally, however, the ratio of sells to buys soared in October, which was actually a good month to pick up stocks.

But these data add to other warning signs. Earnings estimates have been dropping steadily since July, eroding the rally's rationale. Meanwhile, January was the ninth month in a row bringing outflows from domestic equity mutual funds. And daily trading volume on the NYSE has dropped sharply as the rally has progressed.

So who is buying? Companies are, for one. Share buybacks hit $42 billion in February, the highest since October, according to TrimTabs. The Federal Reserve's zero-interest rate policy makes it less attractive for firms to hold cash, encouraging buybacks." I don't want to sell anything.

 

[Birchtree]

Read at your own peril - still no fear here though.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33437.html

 

[hotwings]

Agree... the coal stocks have been getting crushed and I think some companies will go belly up or get bought out by big and well managed coal companies like BTU. If this goes to sub $30, I'm all over it.

 

[Birchtree]

"We're underestimating the economy - Laszlo Birinyi"

News Headlines

 

[Birchtree]

Nygren: More Gains to Come | The Guru Investor

 

[jkenjohnson]

Look out for a margin call.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Look out for a margin call.

Not on this little dip... Last August though caught him...

 

[Birchtree]

I've been buying coal today: ANR, ACI, JRCC.

 

[lacaprup]

Agree... the coal stocks have been getting crushed and I think some companies will go belly up or get bought out by big and well managed coal companies like BTU. If this goes to sub $30, I'm all over it.

I nabbed BTU at $29.95 this morning. Not a bad day's work there. Made up for the bath I've taken in COPX and SWC the last two days.

 

[Birchtree]

"Should economic data show signs of improvement the S&P 500 may post a rally similar to the bull market that started in 1982 (I was there), when the index advanced 229%, or the one in 1990 (I was there also), when it surged 302%." Will history repeat - well why not. Just be prepared.