Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Birchtree said:
I did a considerable amount of selling in September but didn't want to bore anyone with specifics. Now I'll be forced to write a nice check to the IRS in the spring - not the way I wanted to play it out but when you suffer a 2100 Dow point drop in two weeks you have to run like the wind and stay ahead of the damage. I'm buying some of those positions back to rebuild my oceanic account.
Click to expand...

Are you peeing in your pants over all that money that you are making? :)
 
Nah, I can never make enough money - I just regret being forced to take profits when I'm not so inclined. But when you play the margin game there are certain rules that have to have attention - like possible margin calls. 2012 will be a less volatile year and a great opportunity to build that income stream. I now have three trading days to clear $97K - I'm optimistic that it'll happen. Actually with a nice bull move it can happen in one day,
 
Caught another two dividend increase announcements today - APL and TWC, that makes 11 so far this year. Getting paid cash while holding stocks is important, and grows more important as the portfolio becomes part of the cash flow source to support life style. Our bull is going to run for a long time now that the Fed is on easy money through 2014.
 
Anyone holding the I fund should want a lower Euro and a stronger dollar with good global growth. If the small caps hold the next hour I should have most of my give back from yesterday returned in my oceanic account. All I need is another 0.71% in my tsp tugboat to be even for 2011.
 
Bull markets are usually assassinated by tighter monetary policy. We are a very long way from that - no inverted yield curve for several more years. No new rate hike cycle is going to get underway until past 2014. I'm still in the Altucher camp for gains. Noting monetary policy works with a lag, Altucher believes QE2 is now just hitting the economy. And the Fed is thinking about a QE3 - bring it. Altucher is absolutely bullish on the economy and the stock market. He has been upping the ante on his bullish call, predicting the Dow will hit 20,000 and the S&P will ecli[pse 2000 before the current bull leg runs its course. The NYSE daily and weekly A/D lines closed at all time highs this week. In this sort of environment pullbacks are orderly and lead to buying on weakness. Friends, don't fear new highs, figuring they mark an end. They are more often new beginnings.
 
Birchtree said:
Bull markets are usually assassinated by tighter monetary policy. We are a very long way from that - no inverted yield curve for several more years. No new rate hike cycle is going to get underway until past 2014. I'm still in the Altucher camp for gains. Noting monetary policy works with a lag, Altucher believes QE2 is now just hitting the economy. And the Fed is thinking about a QE3 - bring it. Altucher is absolutely bullish on the economy and the stock market. He has been upping the ante on his bullish call, predicting the Dow will hit 20,000 and the S&P will ecli[pse 2000 before the current bull leg runs its course. The NYSE daily and weekly A/D lines closed at all time highs this week. In this sort of environment pullbacks are orderly and lead to buying on weakness. Friends, don't fear new highs, figuring they mark an end. They are more often new beginnings.
Click to expand...

+1
I'm hesitant to commit to future numbers but you've done a great job laying out the logic for a prolonged bull run. Probably not worth much coming from a relative newb, but I strongly agree with you. The pullbacks we've seen have been nothing but buying opportunities and I've been pumping as much money into purchases as I can.

I'll add one thing, the rapid industrialization occurring in the developing markets has the potential to bring tremendous amounts of capital to the markets over the coming years/decade(s).

This prolonged low interest rate environment is an unprecedented boon to anyone with ability to invest capital. Yes, this will lead to some kind of bubble which ultimately will pop, but that's gonna take awhile...so the thing to do is keep on your toes!
 
ok, and how long can we survive the complete debasing (ok, maybe just devaluation) of the US Dollar???

At some point, we will have to pay that bill and we are already >100% debt to GDP...
 
This is what the oceanic accomplished this week: +$5K, +$11K, +$57K, -$31K, +$30K for a pleasant gain of $72K. Now I only need $67K in the next two trading days to capture $400K in my account for January. Looking forward I'm remined, historically, April is the best month of the year. April in 1999 first month ever to gain 1000 points.
 
Making fast money has never been my objective. When I make a 13 point gain on a stock it is because I've been sitting there - not because I planned on making fast money. I buy wall flowers I like and every now and then some one else will take a liking to what I own. So at some point I'll take the earned cash and DCA into some of my other wall flowers. It could turn out to be a hot time for M&A this year with all the cash that's around on balance sheets.
 
Birchtree said:
Making fast money has never been my objective. When I make a 13 point gain on a stock it is because I've been sitting there - not because I planned on making fast money. I buy wall flowers I like and every now and then some one else will take a liking to what I own. So at some point I'll take the earned cash and DCA into some of my other wall flowers. It could turn out to be a hot time for M&A this year with all the cash that's around on balance sheets.
Click to expand...

You are living in the midst of generation instant gratification, none of whom desire to be the richest person in the cemetery.
 
With two hours left, if the VIX drops below 19 we could see SPX 1320 before the close. Now wouldn't that be sweet. The bull market resumes.
 
I'll be back in the market 2/1 buying a few more wall flowers for my base. I have no reason to change my tugboat positions of 20C and 80I - we are heading into a year long bull run. And the Fed wants more inflation and will buy assets to get their wish and not just MBS.
 
The last two days of January were give backs which prevented me from holding the $300K ball park gain for January in my oceanic, however I did make $283K. So off to February with better luck for more gains. Cramer is saying that LTD has increased its' dividend 25% to $1 - that is now 16 dividend increase announcements for January. I'll wait on the LTD split later this year. The best way to read how much money there is for investment in the stock market is the A/D line.
 
Last edited:
Bring on the stampede, my friend. I'm not going to be able to stay up to watch this one, but I'll be checking your thread when I wake up. Put on your goggles - don't want to get manure in your eyes!
 
It never fails that I'm always a dollar short and a day late. All I had to do the last two trading days of January was to make $67K to pull down $400K for the month - but instead I gave back $50K. Now on the open this morning the oceanic is up $64K and heading higher - will February be a golden month for large $K gains. I always enjoy chasing the bull buying: TWIN, OSG, LNG, CNH, UBS, BRC, CX. There is no myopic loss aversion here - only piles of rich bull manure which makes accounts grow like in the garden.
 
Birch,
Do you know of a place where NYSE A/D intraday movements are charted?

I always like to track NYSE A/D intraday when I'm determining when exactly I want to buy/sell an indexed fund. Unfortunately I don't know of anyplace that charts this and my approach involves running to my browser every so often and hitting refresh. Not very effective as I'm usually busy doing something else.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
781
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
441
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
208
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks continue to act well despite some obstacles
Replies
0
Views
120
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
26
Views
1K
evilanne
evilanne
Back
Top