Birchtree's Account Talk

[jkenjohnson]

It's all about liquidity and stocks can offer that advantage if and when you may need it. Good jobs number - now if the market realizes we are not going over the cliff. From TWSJ: "Around 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results and the average positive surprise is 4%, double the average of the past 25 years. Moreover, aggregate corporate earnings and rewvenue are both up about 13% from the year-ago period, according to Yardeni Research. On top of that, corporate cash balances are at record levels and a growing number of companies are buying back shares and raising dividends. American corporations have shown that they can make a lot of money even if the economy isn't sprinting. And Wall Street analysts believe they will continue to do so. In the last week of July, they raised earnings estimates for all 10 S&P 500 sectors. Strong profits may seem like white noise as the stock market cascades lower. But at a certain point, the fury subsides and fundamentals come back into focus."

I agree with everything you are saying but I think people are thinking more globally - problems in Greece, Spain etc have made them spooked by a lacklsuter global economy. Anyway, futures are up this morning, so maybe we will get a good run up today.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm going to sell my ARJ ahead of their buyout to raise some wall flower buying power - I need to buy some happiness. I was waiting for a White Knight to offer a higher price than $47 but I've been standing at the alter too long. It's buying time while prices are so golden.

 

[Birchtree]

Doing some light shopping and plan to do more on Monday: AKS, HUN, ACI.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bottoms-rarely-look-like-thursdays-rout-2011-08-05

 

[weatherweenie]

I'm stunned to watch the sell off of utility stocks such as WR and GXP. Do you follow those? They pay 4-5% dividend, which will be higher after today's selling.

 

[Birchtree]

I do own GXP and can't wait for my turn at dividend reinvestment. Dividends right now are my saving grace and that's the way I planned it. Just in case we trend sideways I can still DCA my base because dividends are coming in all the time.

 

[Birchtree]

From my last marketwatch link: "The question is, for long term investors, does the analysis show that buying the day after a panic sell lead to above market returns."

 

[jpcavin]

From my last marketwatch link: "The question is, for long term investors, does the analysis show that buying the day after a panic sell lead to above market returns."

How do you identify the last panic sell? Seems everyday this week has been a panic sell.

 

[crws]

Did we just witness an over-extended speculator smack-down?

 

[Birchtree]

The last panic sell was this morning with the Dow down over 228 points - my sphincter actually started to tighten even if my gut was calm. It's often difficult to cover up anxiety - my wife kept checking on me last night. Yes honey, I have a plan if I need to scramble - the lamb chop account is ready for its' intendid action. Lots of volume on the early sell off with the VIX peaking very close to the 40 level - a great buying opportunity. I plan to be buying more Monday.

 

[jpcavin]

Did we just witness an over-extended speculator smack-down?

I'm still in a learning phase. My questions are aimed at increasing my knowledge.

 

[Birchtree]

This big V wave we are currently experiencing off the morning lows may be reminiscent of the March '09 low where there was no looking back and very few believed the rally was real. I'd actually prefer a slow go but that may not happen - if anyone wants on this train they will have to run to catch up. That's the risk of waiting - getting left on the platform.

 

[Happy_Trails]

This big V wave we are currently experiencing off the morning lows may be reminiscent of the March '09 low where there was no looking back and very few believed the rally was real. I'd actually prefer a slow go but that may not happen - if anyone wants on this train they will have to run to catch up. That's the risk of waiting - getting left on the platform.

Let's go - why wait - snort?

 

[Birchtree]

At 1330 the volume for the composite NYSE stocks was at 5.67 billion shares versus the Thursday volume of 7.5 billion shares on the close - we'll beat that mark today and that's what we need to see. The R2K has finally gone positive.

 

[Bquat]

This big V wave we are currently experiencing off the morning lows may be reminiscent of the March '09 low where there was no looking back and very few believed the rally was real. I'd actually prefer a slow go but that may not happen - if anyone wants on this train they will have to run to catch up. That's the risk of waiting - getting left on the platform.

I'm sorry Birch I'm on the platform looking at a low base forming, not even a dead cat bounce. I got my line in the water trying to catch a fish but the water level may still be droping and I'm testing the temperature with my big toe. You know me I'm the big nervious frog on the side of the pond. Give me a couple of more days and I may jump in and swim in your wake going up.

 

[FAB1]

How do you identify the last panic sell? Seems everyday this week has been a panic sell.

Maybe cuz it was 6% and more.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Did anyone see the buzz that S&P may downgrade ths USA credit rating after the market closes. S&P would not discuss when they were contacted. If we do get a downgrade, Monday will most likely be another blood bath. Any thoughts? Has this already been priced into the market?​

 

[Birchtree]

"These scary conditions are a contrarian's dream, an ideal time to snatch up bargains."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/22041/major-stock-buying-op

 

[Warrenlm]

Did anyone see the buzz that S&P may downgrade ths USA credit rating after the market closes. S&P would not discuss when they were contacted. If we do get a downgrade, Monday will most likely be another blood bath. Any thoughts? Has this already been priced into the market?​

This is being repeated by CNBC at 4:30 EDT......but what buyers of equities would care? At this time the USA is still the same, although that's not saying anything about 10 years from now, of course, after QE13 and debt at 300% GDP.

 

[Birchtree]

It was a wicked week for the oceanic account - here's a lesson on how fast a devaluation can cascade: $-15K, -$139K, +$3K, -$256K, -$63K for a grand devaluation of -$470K. For the two week period I'm devalued by -$698K. Now I know that is steep but in June 2010 I was devalued -$462K but since my oceanic has grown I paid a higher price this time around. My consolation is that money flows like the waves - it'll all come back over time like it always does - in the meantime my dividends will carry the load. I'm not ready to reduce my asset base at this point - I can handle a little more pain. After all in Nov. 2008 I took a -$1M haircut. So we'll see if a double dip recession is coming or if this is just a correction in an ongoing bull market and a head fake. Bernanke will provide a hint Tuesday. Everything I owned prior to this sell off I still own except for ARJ which I sold to raise some cash to buy more sweet wall flowers. This has been a good experience to let me know if diversification works with the Birchtree 300 - so far so good. If a rebound starts up off this bottom then all my wall flowers will start earning their keep again. My sacrificial lamb chop account should keep me out of trouble with the margin dept. My goal is to finally reach the $2M mark and then work on the $3M level. This mega trend secular bull market is not finished yet. Snort.