Birchtree's Account Talk

[jkenjohnson]

"I fell into a burning ring of fire. I went down, down, down, as the flames went higher." The market is going to start thinking about QE3. I'll just handle this selling - the R2K is still hold its last low of 750 - so let's see how this consolidation plays the end game. I'm not moving - we may have a double bottom in place.

That's one of my favorite Johnny Cash songs (Ring of Fire). Kinda funny.

 

[Birchtree]

It sure feels like panic capitulation with hedge funds covering their margin calls - I'm still safe for awhile longer. It's correction time now and it's nonsensical market activity that one has to plan ahead. I have my lamb chop account (sacrificial) on the ready in case I really get pressured. This is a good run for when I'm in full retirement mode. I'm primarily concerned with holding my positions and protecting my dividend income - they will pick up some tender prices at these levels.

 

[Birchtree]

It's certainly a tough day for the long term investor. My strategy in the oceanic account has been to wait until 2012 to take some profits and I'm sticking to my guns for as long as I can. All those market participants that are being forced to sell will be helping out the budget deficit when they pay their taxes - so there is a small blessing to be had from all this pain. I've been in these tight situations many times over the years so I'll continue to let my dividends do the heavy lifting. So bring it.

 

[Birchtree]

Amoeba is the only one I know that thinks we'll get a nfp number of +300,000 tomorrow - if he is correct we'll get a knock your socks off rally. Let's all hope he is right. Of course I'm only punning here - but a descent nfp would be appreciated. Today has been tough.

 

[Birchtree]

Since the damage has already been done I now hope the recovery is slow and progressive getting into September when more dividends will flow. My small blessing is that my wife gets her defined contribution tomorrow and that means many more shares added for her retirement. Money will flow from the bond market soon enough - but my confidence hasn't been shaken yet but my feet are itchy. Take the periscope down to 400 points and see if it floats.

 

[crws]

we've seen the Wall St. crooks do almost anything to get free gov't $$ as long as they don't have to pay it back.

Now this, hoping for QE3 I'm sure.

Just heard of this publication, and that they had a special bulletin today advising sale of all equities and hold USD cash.

https://www.adenforecast.com/

In the most recent (June 2011) Aden Forecast, they write:

“What concerns us is that interest rates are now signaling a major trend reversal to the downside…
If that proves to be true, it’ll be a very bearish sign for stocks. In other words, this interest rate change
could well be providing an early warning that some sort of crisis, or another recession, lies ahead.
If so, then stocks could be headed for a steep fall.”

The Adens’ response to this is measured:

“All things considered, we feel this is a time to play it safe and lighten up on your stock holdings.
Since the major stock trends are still up, we recommend keeping a smaller 15% position in the strongest stocks (down from 25%), but sell the weaker ones.”

The balance of the Adens’ recommended asset allocation:
40% precious metals (physical, shares and exchange-traded funds); 30% cash (Swiss francs, Canadian and U.S. dollars); 15% energy and resource stocks.

Yesterday- Sonder's & Mohamed El-Erian's analysis:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec11/debt_08-03.html

 

[Birchtree]

Whew VIX now at 29.26 +5.23 - that is a buying signal if you have greed in your vocabulary. I wonder if my inhouse banker would lend me some money to buy more wall flowers, otherwise I'm sitting on ice waiting for my dividends to do their jobs. Dow was down as much as 402. As the guy on CNBC just said - here comes the rip your face off rally. I'll be patient. My asset base remains intact at least until Bernanke speaks or does something in the credit markets.

 

[Warrenlm]

I was wondering when you would shake off the concern and talk of buying.
Limbaugh says we are watching obamanomics die in front of our eyes. Maybe, but the media is still using his talking points on cue. And people listen to and remember soundbites.

 

[FAB1]

LANDRU HELP US!! if you know much about star trek you'll understand.

 

[Birchtree]

I've acquired by asset base and now we'll see if all my wall flowers will help me when the rebound starts up. I probably shouldn't be so stubborn and go ahead and raise a little cash to do some selective buying - but I've got plenty of time yet. I want a slow recovery to last several months to allow my dividends to do their work. This is one of those golden opportunities and a chance to see exactly how much pain I can endure before I need to scramble and call up my sacrificial lamb chop account to save my remaining asset base. Saving my butt is more appropriate.

 

[Birchtree]

You will see when I post my oceanic numbers tomorrow for the week that I have been royally toasted - but I've been here before and will maintain the faith in our markets and economy. The same thing happened last year and that was when I decided to begin building my sacrificial lamb chop account. All my wall flowers are still with me so any type of rally will help regain some of my devaluations. When you play with margin there are certain inherent risks and today was prime. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Today could have been the immediate bottom and the Fed will speak up soon. If I were still employed I'd see this as a great opportunity to accumulate more shares for sure. My life hasn't changed yet - so I'll continue to move forward.

 

[MrBowl]

My bi-weekly contribution buys S fund shares. Maybe now is the time to up my amount. Dollar cost averaging that way means I don't have to return to my IFT buy-in value to be back to even. At some point that's a good strategy...I just don't know when.

 

[Birchtree]

You must remember that the S fund small caps are coming off an 11 year run - this type of activity may slow that performance and allow you to get more shares at reduced pricing. I haven't been in the S fund for over two years waiting for the C fund and I fund large caps to recapture their own outperformance - buy I'm no longer accumulating shares. But I do have patience - waiting on QE3. That will keep the dollar weak and boost commodity stocks which got killed today - but that's alright, it's only temporary.

 

[Geaux4it]

But I do have patience - waiting on QE3. That will keep the dollar weak and boost commodity stocks which got killed today - but that's alright, it's only temporary.

Hey Birch. Don't hold your breath on QE3. That is good for us individually, however, it's the worst thing we could do for the overall problem that is causing the current pain in America.

I'm not certain helicopter Ben will pull the trigger.

Just saying.... :suspicious:

 

[Birchtree]

I'm so glad that I don't own a portfolio of 30 stocks with 10,000 share positions - that's a sure death in a market like today. I'm fortunate that I own 326 wall flowers with smaller positions - for sure I'm wounded, but I'll heal. That's my strategy of going wide and not so deep - the gains come slower but I've got plenty of time yet. So many dividends and such sweet pricing. My wife has 26,000 shares of a 500 index fund and she got hammered today but doesn't know it and tomorrow her contributions go to work accumulating some serious shares - that's exactly what she wants. The accumulators will rule.

 

[Birchtree]

I think the commodity sell off we had today is only temporary - I've seen it happen several times since the spring of 2008. I'm buried in coal at the moment.

 

[Mista_Magee]

Aye,
Appreciate yer clarification,
I roll a big fat dutchie for you mon,
dig a hole thru the coal and pass it down to you,
To soothe da pain. I feel da pain now too.
:worried:
Now that's too funny !! LMAO !!

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[JTH]

Look at it this way. On 27 Jan I had the same amount of money as I do now, only difference being I now own 7.6% more shares.

 

[DrScooter]

That is a MUCH better way to see things today.......

Look at it this way. On 27 Jan I had the same amount of money as I do now, only difference being I now own 7.6% more shares.

 

[Birchtree]

It's all about liquidity and stocks can offer that advantage if and when you may need it. Good jobs number - now if the market realizes we are not going over the cliff. From TWSJ: "Around 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results and the average positive surprise is 4%, double the average of the past 25 years. Moreover, aggregate corporate earnings and rewvenue are both up about 13% from the year-ago period, according to Yardeni Research. On top of that, corporate cash balances are at record levels and a growing number of companies are buying back shares and raising dividends. American corporations have shown that they can make a lot of money even if the economy isn't sprinting. And Wall Street analysts believe they will continue to do so. In the last week of July, they raised earnings estimates for all 10 S&P 500 sectors. Strong profits may seem like white noise as the stock market cascades lower. But at a certain point, the fury subsides and fundamentals come back into focus."