Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/credit-suisse-its-time-to-buy-equities-again

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

What, just for me!

http://www.safehaven.com/article/21346/the-bear-is-back-and-this-time-it-will-be-much-worse

Interesting that you, our local PermaBull, should post this. So, how do you respond?

 

[Birchtree]

As a bull it's important to know what is lurking in the woods. The bears are trying to push us below our dual support lines at 1260 with the VIX bounding up to 24.19 +2.87. Let's see if they got the power. I wish I could experience some of this fear - but so far it's just not in my bones.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX apparently peaked at 24.31 +3.05 trying to raise the fear level to gather up more short hairs to push the SPX down - but only momentarily. It's time for common sense to prevail. Greece for amoeba's sake is only 2% of Europe. The Greek police should bring out the rubber bullets and man up.

 

[Birchtree]

I think we may have just experienced a bear raid on our dual support lines looking like a fake-out overshoot - now that was in living color. I would buckle up and get ready to enter Major wave 3. The spring is coiled and ready to do a panic parabolic buy move - just watch.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I think we may have just experienced a bear raid on our dual support lines looking like a fake-out overshoot - now that was in living color. I would buckle up and get ready to enter Major wave 3. The spring is coiled and ready to do a panic parabolic buy move - just watch.

But will the bears drag us back down as a profit taking move once all the buyers push the prices up?

 

[Birchtree]

There is nothing more beautiful than to watch a bear full of fear - the loss they can experience is limitless unless they cover their shorts. Kind of like pulling up your pants so you can run. When short covering starts it simply feeds on itself and is poetry in motion. Poor mom and pop have gotten out again - another wrong move in my opinion - people just need to learn to accept some pain. Stand in front of the train and see what happens - I usually find it refreshing.

 

[ArchAngel]

Great links, thanks! Kinda answers my "Which are the best dividend stocks" question.

 

[Birchtree]

"And the total for the first half of this year is running at nearly double that pace again - $569 billion, coming close to the previous yearly record of $602 billion, which was set in 2007."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/repurchases-running-at-near-record-levels-2011-06-17

 

[FAB1]

Mcduck said he's headed for the hills. This must be the turnaround point. Ha ha.

 

[Birchtree]

"Trading stock market fear VXO."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28744.html

 

[starfox182]

However, when comparing the VXO to the S&P 500:
On 8/25/08 VXO was 22.59 and the S&P 500 was 1282. About 1 month later (9/22/08) VXO was 39.41 and the S&P 500 was 1213. About 1 more month (10/21/08) VXO was 79.36 and the S&P 500 was 876. Currently VXO is 21.64 and the S&P 500 is 1274. Those numbers seem eerily similar to me....

 

[Birchtree]

It's never the same and it won't be this time. We've seen the bottom yesterday when the VIX was over 25 - that's all they're going to get this time around.

 

[starfox182]

It's very possible.... your bull market beliefs are why I don't have half of my account in short funds yet. Just need some more bad news!

 

[Birchtree]

Well it was another weak week for the oceanic account - no surprise there. The R2K is now down 9.6% so small caps have paid their dues. Here is what happened: -$25K, +$85K, -$80K, -$14K, +$6K for a gross give back of -$28K. Not so bad compared to the last two previous weeks of -$139K and -$131K. But I'm holding the thin blue line and will allow that we may have more selling to go. I have another two weeks of dividend investments - so bring those lower prices.

 

[Birchtree]

There was a 'death cross' last July and it didn't change the long term trend at the time. It was a fake out last time. And if it happens again it will be a fake out also.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

There was a 'death cross' last July and it didn't change the long term trend at the time. It was a fake out last time. And if it happens again it will be a fake out also.

To which moving averages are you referring?

 

[Birchtree]

When the 50 does a cross of the 200.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

When the 50 does a cross of the 200.

Thanks. So many people use SMA, EMA, 18, 20, 45, 50 100, 200... it all depends... the cross occurs at different places depending on what type and number you use. SOOOO confusing

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/06/21/doll-were-early-in-the-expansion/