Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Birchtree said:
"But if we ever get an all clear sign in the form of one or two high volume, high intensity up days heading into earnings season, investors can go back full tilt on mid-cap growth stocks."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28919.html
Click to expand...

And if we don't???

Now mind you, we may never get that all-clear sign. And we may need to recognize that there could be a slide into the fall culminating with an epic wipeout that would lead us to try to buy another fantastic bottom like March 2009.
Click to expand...

:(
 
Yes, that is a bit of Catch 22/catch-all logic. If everyone goes in...it will be safe for us all to go in; if not, things could get really bad.
 
Mapper said:
Yes, that is a bit of Catch 22/catch-all logic. If everyone goes in...it will be safe for us all to go in; if not, things could get really bad.
Click to expand...

I would like to think I could follow big(aka smart) money into the market instead of being the leader, then being faked out by them... that's just me.

Oh, yea... just wish I was that smart...
 
birch, I'm not sure if I say this before but hat off to you for been through this month and being in the I fund.
 
Birch,

I'm not in right now, but I have a number for you. I want you to fertilize your flowers and get us to 1313 to 1320 S&P. This will scare the crap out of the shorts and get us bullish again. I hope I'm not asking too much of you, but we need it this week or soon.

Thanks buddy:)

I posted simple chart in my thread. Here's some water.;)
 
My sad tale for today is that I want to chase this rally and buy some happiness but I'm low on money. I'll just have to resign myself to sitting on the sidelines until such time that flower buying power returns. That won't be until I see 1370 on the SPX - so maybe some time in July. My purchases since 7/31/2010 have totaled 615 and I'd like to run that number up to 700 if possible - but I can be patient. If I can see a blast from the past upwards later today that would be two days of back to back triple digit gains and then there is tomorrow. Now I'm headed out to mow my lawn before I need to rent a tractor.
 
I read somewhere today that the Fed through reinvesting their mature Treasury purchases over the next year will likely be at least $300 billion. That's half the size of QE2 - even if QE3 never takes place. That's still a lot of liquidity coming back into the market to provide equity support. I think we'll see SPX 1370 before July ends. Then I can do some wall flower shopping.
 
Birchtree said:
I read somewhere today that the Fed through reinvesting their mature Treasury purchases over the next year will likely be at least $300 billion. That's half the size of QE2 - even if QE3 never takes place. That's still a lot of liquidity coming back into the market to provide equity support. I think we'll see SPX 1370 before July ends. Then I can do some wall flower shopping.
Click to expand...
Birshtree: That's why I will be bottom fishing around mid July (Full Moon) :)
 
Birchtree said:
I read somewhere today that the Fed through reinvesting their mature Treasury purchases over the next year will likely be at least $300 billion. That's half the size of QE2 - even if QE3 never takes place. That's still a lot of liquidity coming back into the market to provide equity support. I think we'll see SPX 1370 before July ends. Then I can do some wall flower shopping.
Click to expand...

You are correct, that is partly the reason QE3 isn't supported, because it's just not needed. There is a lot of baking left in this cake, it hasn't even risen yet...
 
Mr. Dim Widdy is going anti-business again rather than anti-welfare or anti-illegitimacy. He is going to land hard in 2012 and that's only fair.
 
Hey Brother - Let's hope the Upward Trend is starting to push forward.

The cheapest gas station was $4.15 a few weeks back and I'm like there is no way I'm filling up for that kind of price. With the milage I get I can go for weeks - so I waited until I could fill up for $3.64 - then within the past few days I got it for under $3.50 and that is without the added perks I get on top of all that.

I don't know Birch - it may be that shooting the gas prices to what felt like $10 dollars and now getting it for less than $3.50 makes the 'investors' feel good. I really don't care whatever the reason - whether it's Neptune or Venus or just the Markets getting tired of sideways stuff - but I think things will go up for awhile and then sideways stuff is bound to dominate once again.

Well it's only once in awhile I come around anymore Birch - but I did think of the princess last night and wondered how she's doing. How married life is and how her job is going. Of course I can't help but think of you with the lake right off the patio and hope all is well.

I had a random thought about writting a book about how to make the Second go around 500 zillion times better than the first - but would take from all the site really represents. Anyway my little filly is way beyond anything I could have hope or dreamed for and LIFE just gets better and better.

Take care Birch

I'll come back later on - to see if you responded
 
Birchtree said:
.. I think we'll see SPX 1370 before July ends. Then I can do some wall flower shopping.
Click to expand...

Wow I might be bullish but you're saying a new 52 week high by end of July? No way imho.

Of course my simple comment and all the other short-term bearish 'dumb money' does make it more likely.
 
Hey there Steady - nice to hear from you. I can't wait to get my lake place and get out of this terrible heat. "Buzz" is doing fine and racking up the Skymiles. Her husband has been making a Civil War short film in Virginia as part of his resume to get into a graduate program for film. Buzz flew to Virginia from Chicago for two weekends free to help her husband - she was involved in makeup and feeding the crew and players. My son in law has chosen a risk occupation and wants to work in the advertising field. I told my wife that when my equity position reaches $3M that we would discuss her retirement options and head for North Western North Carolina - I've got six lake properties of interest and am waiting for more price softness. Things are slow in Cashiers right now and prices are starting to come down. I'm glad to hear that love is flourishing - such an adventure you are on. This bull market has plenty of life to run. Snort.
 
vegasmith,

Where else is money going to go? There are no good options except into equities and it will flow and flow. Creating a new higher high. The S&P 500 buybacks are up 63% in the first quarter. Trim Tabs says companies spent a thumping $124 billion in the first three months of the year trying to boost their share prices by buying up stock. It's also possible that QE2 hasn't hit the economy yet as monetary policy acts with a lag - so get ready for the stampede. The VIX will be falling through the 15 level again before long - like maybe the end of next week.
 
Well first we gotta get through the 50 SMA and the top of the original descending trend line. (no easy task) Now yes it could be done with a little help from today's Initial Claims. Something along the lines are 380k would do it imo.
 
And if there was ever a time to see a longer than average cyclical bull, it is after a once in a century stock panic. The VIX at 16.07 down 1.20 will most likely slip into the 15 level by days end - that will encourage mom and pop to return to equities creating a pandemonium panic of buying pressure. Always buy on the bad news when there is too much pessimism in the market. Gosh I'd like to pull another $100K day. Snort.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
739
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
376
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
197
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
25
Views
1K
nasa1974
nasa1974
tsptalk
  • Article Article
If there is a wall of worry out there, stocks are clearly still climbing it
Replies
1
Views
146
nasa1974
nasa1974
Back
Top