Birchtree's Account Talk

[PessOptimist]

A brief excusion on the interwebwhatsis got me this:

"A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe."

I remember reading somewhere that "depression" was a term created in the thirties so as not to panic the people about being in a "recession". No, I am not going to post a source for the above quote and, no I am not going to try to find where I read about the invention of the term "depression".

I hope you are right about the future, BT. It is way, way too late to pull back to G. It is not too late to put that 50% that is in G in some other fund. Which one?

Don't care anymore, on annual leave and going to a place you lived in long ago.

PO

 

[tsptalk]

What have I missed?

Birchtree is bullish.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Birchtree is bullish.

ROFLMAO, good one !!! :laugh: :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

"There are two lines in the sand for this market. 1262 S&P 500 is both the 200 EMA and the uptrend line off the March 2009 lows. A huge area of support that the bulls need to hold at any cost."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28573.html

 

[Happy_Trails]

"There are two lines in the sand for this market. 1262 S&P 500 is both the 200 EMA and the uptrend line off the March 2009 lows. A huge area of support that the bulls need to hold at any cost."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28573.html

Hard to believe we are that close to the 200 EMA, isn't it?

 

[Birchtree]

These types of consolidations happen every year and sometimes 2 or 3 times. The faster we come down the faster we go back up. In 2010 the 16% correction required another 7 months before the peak was regained - that's a purrfect scenario for the TSP DCA type. My wife is enjoying this consolidation unknowingly applying her defined contributions at lower prices - how great is that. The more share accumulation is the name of the game.

 

[Birchtree]

Should Weiner resign - why, Congress if full of perverts and he didn't go near a cigar. Barney is in love again.

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market tug of war, mass of bottoming indicators."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28580.html

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

"Stock market tug of war, mass of bottoming indicators."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28580.html

Interesting read... hope it's true

 

[Gumby]

Should Weiner resign - why, Congress if full of perverts and he didn't go near a cigar. Barney is in love again.

Best laugh I have had all day......

 

[Birchtree]

There have now been three GOP hopefuls suggesting they would go to 0% on capital gains and dividend income. What would happen if Obummer decided to pre-empt their ideas and enact his own program to increase the probabilities of economic growth and employment. The market would explode. I would like to keep that extra 15% on my capital gain profits and dividend income. Today feels a little bit like controlled capitulation. I'm determined to hold my asset base intact for the rebound that is coming. I also have many dividends yet to come due. I doubt we are heading to the previous March '11 low.

 

[Birchtree]

"When you have a market that begins like this market did, doubling in the first two years, those are not the kind of markets which are of limited duration and limited price."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-money-moves-one-raging-stock-bull-is-making-now-2011-06-10

 

[Birchtree]

My front lawn looks so good this summer that I might allow Ferdinand to come from around the back yard and enjoy some real green. I've been thinking about taking some cash from my CLF position as a sacrifice to buy more wall flowers - now is the time to step up - Monday may be purrfect.

 

[Birchtree]

It's time for courage. The last time the Dow had six straight weeks of losses was in October 2002. I remember it well back then. I was buying and each time I bought I took a paper loss - then came a higher low and final low of March 2003 and a 5 year bull started. We had a triple bottom that was painful and required courage to stand ground. I'm holding for the next high of Dow 14,000. Still no fear here - I'll just absorb the pain as a long term investor.

 

[Dutchy]

There have now been three GOP hopefuls suggesting they would go to 0% on capital gains and dividend income. What would happen if Obummer decided to pre-empt their ideas and enact his own program to increase the probabilities of economic growth and employment. The market would explode. I would like to keep that extra 15% on my capital gain profits and dividend income. Today feels a little bit like controlled capitulation. I'm determined to hold my asset base intact for the rebound that is coming. I also have many dividends yet to come due. I doubt we are heading to the previous March '11 low.

Oh that it could be true Birch.....But Obummer is to locked in to his Leftist agenda to cut the taxes...We have hold on for the 2012 elections!

 

[Birchtree]

If memory serves me right we just touched 18% for stocks above their 50-day moving average in the SPX - the low back in March was 26%. We are nicely oversold and the wall flowers are waiting for some warm rain to grow.

 

[Geaux4it]

If memory serves me right we just touched 18% for stocks above their 50-day moving average in the SPX - the low back in March was 26%. We are nicely oversold and the wall flowers are waiting for some warm rain to grow.

Good Birch- Cause this market is really starting to chap my hide.

-Geaux

 

[amoeba]

We'll see about that

My front lawn looks so good this summer that I might allow Ferdinand to come from around the back yard and enjoy some real green. I've been thinking about taking some cash from my CLF position as a sacrifice to buy more wall flowers - now is the time to step up - Monday may be purrfect.

Maybe. Maybe not.

There will be alot of eyes on the retail sales and other numbers to follow next wk. We'll see. My sense is that market confidence is shaken up a bit and there needs to be something else soon other than bad news and missed forecasts. More sales. More jobs. Not just smack that this is the bottom and you better buy now, the market is going to the moon without you. That sorta talk just ain't doin it.

 

[vegasmith]

Actually I disagree with all of you. It's not Obama, it's not the Fed, it's not the Congressional deadlock on debt ceiling. We're in the summer months, worst seasonality of the year. The kids are out of school, the water is warm, wake me up when it's August/Sept.

 

[Birchtree]

Week #6 was a tough week for the oceanic again. Here's what transpired: -$72K, -$3K, -$40K, +$38K, -$62K for a gross give back of $139K. Not pretty for sure. There certainly is a big difference between being hit hard and being knocked out - and the fact is I'm still standing. My oceanic has now been devalued by $441K in the last six weeks but I'm still holding my base intact and fully prepared to participate in any resumption of the bull. This is what I have to be able to tolerate to stay fully invested and continue with my dividend reinvestments. We'll see what life brings next week.