Birchtree's Account Talk

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In only four trading days we are in the process of creating a significant structural low in the longer term trend - but it sure don't feel good even for me. But I've suffered market pain in the past and it always works out for the best. This week the oceanic performed like this: +$58K, -$124K, -$13K, -$52K for a firm devaluation of -$131K. I'm still ahead of the game off the March'09 lows by $1674K but a long way now away from the $2M mark - it's only $326K more to go. At the end of April I only had $24K to go to get the $2M - but I realize that what goes down fast can come back with a vengence so I'm cycle riding the bull.
 
I don't particularly like to use the word loss - I much prefer devaluation when it comes to my oceanic account. The first week of May I gave back $180K so the first week in June I give up $131K - to me that's progress. I don't take a loss unless I make a sale - money flows in and flows out. The last five weeks it has been flowing out but the month is not over yet. We now have a sentiment foundation built that could support a more sustainable rally well into new bull market highs. I have 61 more dividends to be reinvested this month - so lower prices are the ideal to build more income.
 
Here is something interesting. The CME has reduced the margin requirements for stock index futures effective 6/2/11. Does this mean they want a June rally.
 
The guilotine has been cleaned and sharpened for next week - one more cereal down day for the S funders and I can think about moving forward. Nine of the 11 prior bull markets lasted for more than 1300 days - we are only halfway through the bull market. Anybody need sticky pants for next week?
 
sponge bob1.gif I'll put my S Pants back on when it turns around to the upside again!:D You understand, UP= IN, down = Out = MORE$$$$$! scrooge-mcduck-make-it-rain.jpg
 
There probably aren't many here that rode the triple bottom of 2002 into 2003. If we have another down week for a total of six down weeks will take us back to July 2002 which was the first down leg of the end of the dot com bubble bear. I did a sizeable amount of buying then as well into October 2002 bottom and then the March 03 down leg. It's going to be a fun ride this summer.
 
There are quite a few people I know who remember it all too well! They rode it all the way up in 2001, and all the way down. Some stayed on the ride for the whole time, but many ran out of alka seltzer and bailed at exactly the wrong time. And now they are wondering where their retirement went!

Those who stayed on the ride (or bailed during the upturn like me) didn't gain much, but that was better than losing your boat.
 
Silverbird said:
There are quite a few people I know who remember it all too well! They rode it all the way up in 2001, and all the way down. Some stayed on the ride for the whole time, but many ran out of alka seltzer and bailed at exactly the wrong time. And now they are wondering where their retirement went!
Click to expand...

At my agency it was no problemo for the Golden Boys and Girls -- after the special ones retired they came right back as "contractors" making the big bucks.
They do this at Census all the time, they got their losses back and more Im sure. As for the ones who didnt have the right friends, or just plain refused to kiss ass, well I guess they really take the loss.

Give a Federal Manager near unlimited power with no consequences for their actions and whata ya get - Corrupt bastards.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Politicians... :D
Click to expand...

Yeah, that too. All upper management clowns care about is "image"...thats for sure. So, productivity and fiscal responsibility take a back seat
too "looking good" -- doesnt matter if sheet is falling apart at the seams, dont let your superiors know and just go along to get along. The amount
of failed and failing initiatives here is astounding...but the fart smellers just all say "everything is fine" - anyone who dares to be negative (that is speak the truth)
must want to be cast out of the clique of the "true believers" - Im pretty negative cant you see!
 
Trying to buy a little more happiness today: TWX, CTL, FNF, GGC. Only have four dividends paying today to be reinvested - but they'll be paying all week.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Birchtree, my avatar has a question for you. :)

"Birch my brother...what taxes are you talking about? I CUT your Federal taxes. Your federal deduction for FICA is slightly lower than it was before. I also extended the Bush tax cuts even though they've been creating runaway deficits for years. Damn, If my name was Bush, you'd be calling me a hero right now." :D
Click to expand...

I really do hate answering questions posed to other people on their posts but FWM I have to call your smoke and mirrors out on the spot.
"I CUT your Federal taxes"
That is a superlie! Please post your LES or anyones LES that shows the amount of federal tax witheld before and after this claim of a cut.
If you can prove a cut I will retract my statement and apologize.
FICA is lower......and you call that a good thing?
The Bush tax cuts being extended is nothing more than a no integrity, incompetent person reneging on one of a multitude of campaign promises.
At this point, I don't think you even know what a tax cut is?

Next thing ya know you will be telling us about how great the unemployment rate is and about all these jobs created. Ha!

Prepare for the largest tax increase in HISTORY and being told we belong on the Beltway. :)


 
The HSNSI is at 24.8% versus 67.2% at the beginning of May and headed a little lower. That's purrfect from a contrarian perspective.
 
I remember the June 2010 16% correction took me down around $660K so I know I can handle that level of pain so bring on the pain. I have dividends coming in all month so lower pricing in the long term fits my strategy. The lamb chop portfolio is set and ready as a back door escape from any margin calls - but I got a long way to go before I'm forced into selling. I'm confident better days are ahead. Snort.
 
"Since the March 2009 low, there has only been one correction of intermediate nature, and that was during April, May and June 2010. In the first five weeks of that correction, SPX gave up 176 points, or declined at the rate of 35 points per week. During the five weeks of the current consolidation, the index has only dropped 72 points, declining at the rate of a little over 14 points per week. Clearly, so far, we are only in a short term consolidation."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/21222/market-turning-points
 
jlh321 said:
Cash is a wonderful position for the time being.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28527.html


Should finish reading the article.
Click to expand...

JLH321,

Cash is a great place to be in RIGHT NOW.

But, it will be a lousy place to be in when the market corrects to the upside. If you are 100% cash, you will miss 100% of the first day's upside move and probably not trust it for the remaining boom. This does not feel like 2008. Why be 100% in or 100% out unless you are Carnac the Magnificent. Me, I'd rather be drinking cognac and catch some of the upside while not losing as much on the downside.

My recent problem is that I don't let my winners win.

Got to follow BirchTree in that.
 
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