Birchtree's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

I see the dollar is coming back to you.

 

[FAB1]

Not everyone closed down for the day...

View attachment 10840

Lead on Transports! Usually a good sign

 

[Dutchy]

Lead on Transports! Usually a good sign

Yes.... And that indicator is being reflected in the Markets today, so far.... At this rate, Birchtree will rocket past me on the Tracker ! And just when I was taking solace in the fact that I was just ahead of him a few spots despite me being in the F Fund..

 

[ballnoutacontrol]

Hey Birchy Boy, got a question. As always I’m interested in your opinion

The housing market...... I see this as a situation that will get worse before it gets better. My reasons are:

1. It will be harder to get a loan because lenders will, if not already go back to something closer to what was expected years ago i.e. down payment, credit score and employment.

2. People have less of items listed above (down payment, credit score and employment) so we will need to see a recovery in jobs first.

3. Massive amounts of supply sitting around.

Additionally I think the people who haven't foreclosed and are still holding out paying mortgage's on underwater property's will give up. It's probably cheaper to rent, they look at how long it will take to gain back the lost equity and for some the only substantial cost will be to there credit. They might also think "I will just turn around and buy something else under someone else’s name". You can add to that any numbers of other things... want to move for a job and have no other option, bought it as an investment and don't really have any attachment to it......

It was interesting to see what the housing incentives did though... it brought quite a few people to the market. That was probably just a way to put some money in the banks pockets though. Also I think we will see the market make moves up and down, but until the jobs come back this is probably just investor types.

Just me, what do you think? Did I miss anything or am I way off course?

Thanks, ball'n

 

[poolman]

Yes.... And that indicator is being reflected in the Markets today, so far.... At this rate, Birchtree will rocket past me on the Tracker ! And just when I was taking solace in the fact that I was just ahead of him a few spots despite me being in the F Fund..

Dutchy, Birtchtree is 80% invested in the I - Fund. The I - Fund's value is in part tied to US Dollar Index. This Index is positive thus far into the trading day which is not helping Birchtree or anyone in the I - Fund for that matter. See Link below. What is looking good thus far in the trading day is the S - Funders which is tied to the Russel 2000. That index is fairing rather strong thus far today. I hope this helps.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY

 

[Birchtree]

I think you have it exactly correct. Bull and bear markets in real estate are measured in years, not months. Most of the damage is already in the market - so the longer the real estate market remains a problem the better the equity market will do in my opinion. I say keep'em in their under water mortgages and out of the stock market. That's makes it better for me.

 

[Birchtree]

All I need to do is pull in another $10K before the close and I'll be ready to build some flower power buying in my oceanic account. I haven't bought any fresh flowers in several weeks - I'm so ready. A move above the range high of 1344 on the SPX will signal another move higher in the market. Yes folks, negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market and that takes getting used to. Now if we get a QE3 - stand back as another parabolic move heats up.

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

Birch, I took your advice. Got my first reinvested divvy today. Now I have ten more shares than I did yesterday. Love it! <big happy face>

Ann

 

[Birchtree]

And you know that will happen every three months - rain or shine. Only on your next dividend reinvestment you make collect 11 shares or more depending on the income. That income will grow with more shares - it's so easy. The only problem is if you sell the shares you miss out on the income - I'm keeping mine for the grand kids.

 

[ballnoutacontrol]

I think you have it exactly correct. Bull and bear markets in real estate are measured in years, not months. Most of the damage is already in the market - so the longer the real estate market remains a problem the better the equity market will do in my opinion. I say keep'em in their under water mortgages and out of the stock market. That's makes it better for me.

Thanks b-tree, you the man.

 

[hotwings]

Nice Bullish read from Steven Todd... "It's amazing some of the reasons given for market action. Today, the online version of the Wall Street Journal suggested that one reason for
the rally was that consumer confidence dropped, but not as much as expected. Yeah. Right."


SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish


http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Historically, April is the best month of the year. April 1999 first month ever to gain 1000 points."

http://pragcap.com/looking-ahead-to-april-the-best-month-for-the-bulls

 

[Birchtree]

"A resilient market in the face of bad news is a very bullish sign for investors."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/paul-nolte/equity-markets-to-warm-wth-the-weather

I read this morning on Mish's blog that 30% of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in over 2 years. 47% of those in foreclosure have not made a payment for at least 18 months. If you can't throw'em out why not try some tear gas. These people are now squatters and giving law abiding citizens a black eye.

 

[FAB1]

"A resilient market in the face of bad news is a very bullish sign for investors."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/paul-nolte/equity-markets-to-warm-wth-the-weather

I read this morning on Mish's blog that 30% of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in over 2 years. 47% of those in foreclosure have not made a payment for at least 18 months. If you can't throw'em out why not try some tear gas. These people are now squatters and giving law abiding citizens a black eye.

This begs for an answer to get me sent to TSP lockup. I refrain.

 

[Birchtree]

Oh, I know what you mean - I was careful myself.

 

[Birchtree]

I just had to turn the creep master off - I can't listen to his nonsense anymore.

 

[poolman]

This begs for an answer to get me sent to TSP lockup. I refrain.

+1

I take the Fifth and Refrain to Respond.



At least 2/3 of the Country are Responsible.

 

[Birchtree]

Well the flower pot is beginning to fill with currently $40K in there right now - I'll have to use some of that money to pay my friends at the IRS. Sometimes it don't pay to take profits and I'm trying not to do that for the rest of the year. The VIX is being reasonable today. The only thing we have to fear is no fear. The worst fear is taphophobia - the fear of being buried alive.

 

[Birchtree]

"It might not matter, because QE3 may already be here."

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/is-qe3-already-here/

 

[Murphys_Law]

So, you're calling a 2011 top in May? :blink: I doubt that.

Maybe a May top will provide just a typical "summer sell-off" and we resume the rally into fall 2011. I'm focusing on May 1420.

The bank index has stayed RED on a YTD, even though the other broad indexes are recovering. This could be a wiff of trouble ahead.

It is tough to say what will happen with the banks and the economy when QE2 ends. The May top assumes QE2 will end June 30. Bernanke seems to have lots of his credibility bet on this bluff... that the economy can recovery without continued stimuli... so he'll probably attempt to end Queezing (money printing.) The banks have been the beneficiaries of QE2. they get cash for bad assets on their books like Treasuries and Agency mortgage bonds. They are not lending so that cash has gone to trading and pushed the markets up. When that flow ends, we could have big trouble for the mkt and economy.

But watch Eric Cantor. he is spear-heading the talks on a overseas tax re-patriation holiday. CSCO and GOOG made headlines this week, asking if they could bring money they hold overseas back to the US tax-free. US corp's overseas funds are estimated at 1 Tril. This would easily replace Queezing and give Ben some leeway to hold QE3 as a last bullet. This is what linguists call "the release language phase" and as the frequency goes up (the more we hear of a tax holiday,) the higher the likelihood that corporations will get their wish.

If we get the tax holiday, there will be enough liquidity to extend the rally into mid July without the fed.

Price is the final and best indicator.

Earnings are coming up and they are anticipated to be good... as per CNBC. It will be interesting to see which companies admit that input costs are hurting them. I doubt the labor market can improve when energy and input materials price rises are eating extra cash flow. If labor can't improve, neither can housing. Corporations and the banks definitely need more queezing or the tax holiday. Thats why May could be a top, in my view.